SEC Championship Clinching Scenarios (as of 11/3/14):

#1
TrueOrange

TrueOrange

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#1
I think I've got all the possible scenarios figured out regarding the East and who could clinch it at this point.

(Going to try to figure out the West later today, if I have time.)

First here are the conference tie-breaking rules:

1. Two-Team Tie: In the event two teams are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order:

A. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams;

B. Records of the tied teams within the division;

C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record, and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place);

D. Overall record against non-divisional teams;

E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams;

F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional or non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division;

G. Best cumulative Conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents

H. Coin flip of the tied teams.

----

2. Three-Team Tie (or more): If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):

A. Combined head to head record among the tied teams;

B. Record of the tied teams within the division;

C. Head to head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place);

D. Overall Conference record against non divisional teams;

E. Combined record against all common non divisional teams;

F. Record against the common non divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through other common non divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and

G. Best cumulative Conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents (Note: If two teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, then the two-team tiebreaker procedures apply. If four teams are tied, and three teams' non-divisional opponents have the same cumulative record, the three-team tiebreaker procedures will be used beginning with 2.A.)

H. Coin flip of the tied teams with the team with the odd result being the representative (Example: If there are two teams with tails and one team with heads, the team with heads is the representative).
Click to expand...

The biggest thing to remember out of these is that if at any step enough teams are removed from the tie breakers that only two remain, it immediately reverts back to a two-team tie breaking procedure.

The current East standings are:

Missouri: 4-1, 7-2 overall
UGA: 4-2, 6-2 overall
UF: 3-3, 4-3 overall

Missouri has a tiebreaker over UF, UF has a tiebreaker over UGA, and UGA has a tiebreaker over MU.
 
#2
#2
Non-3-team-tiebreaker scenarios:

MU clinches if:

  1. Beats A&M, TN, and Ark (Missouri ends up 10-2, 7-1)
  2. Beats 2 out of A&M, TN, and Ark, AND UGA loses to 1 of UK or AUB (Missouri ends up 9-3, 6-2. UGA ends up 8-4/9-3, 5-3)
  3. Beats 1 of A&M, TN, and Ark, AND UGA loses to both UK and AUB (Missouri ends up 8-4, 5-3. UGA ends up 7-5/8-4, 4-4)

UGA clinches if:

  1. Beats both UK and AUB, AND MU loses to 1 of A&M, TN, and ARK (UGA ends up 9-3/10-2, 6-2. MU ends up 9-3, 6-2)
  2. Beats one of UK and AUB, AND MU loses to 2 of A&M, TN, and ARK, AND UF loses to 1 of Vandy and SC (UGA ends up 8-4/9-3, 5-3. MU ends up 8-4, 5-3. UF ends up 6-5/7-4, 4-4)
  3. Loses to both UK and AUB, AND MU loses to all 3 of A&M, TN, and ARK, AND UF loses to both Vandy and SC (UGA ends up 7-5 or 8-4, 4-4. MU ends up 7-5, 4-4. UF ends up 5-6/6-5, 3-5)

UF clinches if:

Beats both SC and Vandy, AND UGA loses to 1 of UK and AUB, AND MU loses to all 3 of A&M, TN, and ARK
(UF ends up 7-4/8-3, 5-3. UGA ends up 8-4/9-3, 5-3. MU ends up 7-5, 4-4)


--------------------------------


3-team-tiebreaker


If all teams 5-3:

1. If UGA loses to UK and beats AUB, AND UF beats both Vandy and SC, AND Missouri beats UT and beats either A&M or Ark but loses to the other:

Step 1: Head to head
  • All are tied at 1-1.
Step 2: Records within division:
  • UGA: 3-3, UF: 5-1, MU: 5-1
  • UGA eliminated.
  • Reverts to a 2-team tiebreaker.
  • MU (9-3, 5-3) goes to the SEC Championship.

2. If UGA loses to AUB and beats UK, AND UF beats both Vandy and SC, AND Missouri beats UT and beats either A&M or Ark but loses to the other:

Step 1: Head to head
  • All are tied at 1-1.
Step 2: Records within division:
  • UGA: 4-2, UF: 5-1, MU: 5-1
  • UGA eliminated.
  • Reverts back to a 2-team tiebreaker.
  • MU (9-3, 5-3) goes to the SEC Championship.

3. If UGA loses to UK and beats AUB, AND UF beats both Vandy and SC, AND Missouri loses to UT and beats either A&M or Arkansas but loses to the other:

Step 1: Head to head
  • All are tied at 1-1.
Step 2: Records within division:
  • UGA: 3-3, UF: 5-1, MU: 4-2
  • UGA, MU eliminated.
  • UF (7-4/8-3, 5-3) goes to the SEC Championship.

4. If UGA loses to AUB and beats UK, AND UF beats both Vandy and SC, AND Missouri loses to UT and beats either A&M or Arkansas but loses to the other:


Step 1: Head to head
  • All are tied at 1-1.
Step 2: Records within division:
  • UGA: 4-2, UF: 5-1, MU: 4-2
  • UGA, MU eliminated.
  • UF (7-4/8-3, 5-3) goes to the SEC Championship.

---------------------------
All 3 teams going 4-4 would create a scenario where it could depend on which fourth team in the division finished 4-4 between UK and UT, if either.


If all 3 teams are 4-4 plus UT is 4-4:

(So if UGA loses to both UK and AUB, AND UF loses to 1 of Vandy or SC, AND MU loses to all 3 of A&M, TN, and ARK, AND UT beats UK, MU, and Vandy)

Step 1: Head to head
  • UGA: 2-1, UF: 2-1, UT: 1-2, MU: 1-2.
  • UT and MU eliminated.
  • Reverts back to 2-team tiebreaker.
  • UF (6-5/7-4, 4-4) goes to the SEC Championship.


If all 3 teams are 4-4 plus UK is 4-4:

(So if UGA loses to both UK and AUB, AND UF loses to 1 of Vandy or SC, AND MU loses to all 3 of A&M, TN, and ARK, AND UK beats both UGA and UT)

Step 1: Head to head
  • UGA: 1-2, UF: 2-1, MU: 2-1, UK: 1-2.
  • UGA and UK eliminated.
  • Reverts back to 2-team tiebreaker.
  • MU (7-5, 4-4) goes to the SEC Championship.

If all 3 teams go 4-4 alone:

(So if UGA loses to both UK and AUB, AND UF loses to 1 of Vandy or SC, AND MU loses to all 3 of A&M, TN, and ARK, AND UK loses to UT, AND UT loses to Vanderbilt)

Step 1: Head to head
  • All are 1-1
Step 2: Record within the division.
  • UGA - 3-3, UF - 4-2, MU - 4-2
  • UGA is eliminated
  • Reverts back to a 2-team tiebreaker.
  • MU (7-5, 4-4) goes to the SEC Championship.
 
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#3
#3
I can't believe Florida is even in this conversation....mizzou as well....how sad
 
#5
#5
bamawriter said:
There are still 5 teams completely alive in the West.
Click to expand...

True but there is also a very good chance none of them make it. If Ga beats Auburn and Auburn beats Bama. Bama beats MS State and so does Ole Miss. The Bama beats LSU...the SEC is on the outside looking in. The West has great teams but too many great teams
 
#6
#6
bamawriter said:
There are still 5 teams completely alive in the West.
Click to expand...

That's what I thought. I'm curious to see if that can be condensed in any way (like this), but that might end up a fool's errand, on my part, with all the variable outcomes remaining.
 
#7
#7
I say state wins the west. They'll split the Bama and Ole Miss games and finish 11-1. I see Bama losing one more either to State, Auburn, or LSU.
 
#8
#8
TrueOrange said:
That's what I thought. I'm curious to see if that can be condensed in any way (like this), but that might end up a fool's errand, on my part, with all the variable outcomes remaining.
Click to expand...

It's not all that convoluted, actually:

Bama and MSU both control their own destinies.

Auburn needs MSU to lose to Alabama. If Auburn wins out, the worst-case scenario is a 3-way tie between AU, Bama, and MSU that AU would likely win.

LSU needs MSU to lose to Alabama and Ole Miss, and they need Auburn to lose to Bama and UGA. If LSU wins out, the best case scenario would put LSU in a 3-way tie with Bama and MSU. It would come down to record of cross-division opponents, so LSU would need to see Tennessee finish with a worse record than Kentucky.

Ole Miss needs MSU to lose to Bama, LSU to lose to A&M or Arkansas, Auburn to lose to UGA and Bama, and Bama to lose to LSU. That puts Ole Miss in a 3-way tie with Bama and MSU, and if they win out, Ole Miss would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
 
#11
#11
Great work.

What I'm seeing here is if UT and UF handle business the rest of the year and Auburn or KY beats UGA, then Florida goes to the SECCG.

Just wow. That is a completely plausible scenario.
 
#12
#12
What if all three lose out, and ut wins out? Would that not be a 3 way tie between uga, mizzou, and ut? In that case georgia would go, correct?
 
#13
#13
appyvol said:
What if all three lose out, and ut wins out? Would that not be a 3 way tie between uga, mizzou, and ut? In that case georgia would go, correct?
Click to expand...

UGA would be 2-0 vs common opponents, while UT would be 1-1 and MU 0-2.

UGA would go, but it's pretty much the same as the 3rd scenario listed under how UGA would clinch it without a 3 way tiebreaker between UGA, MU, and UF.
 
#15
#15
My guess it will be Missouri against Miss. St. with the Bulldogs winning by 10!
Don't want to see the Gators go! Miss St. might have to lose twice to not win the West and the winner of the Bama/Auburn game goes to the SECC.
 
#16
#16
Here's a scenario for you:

The winner of the SECw beats the winner of the SECe by 30 points.

Book it.
 
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#18
#18
Something is a little off with these scenarios.

Mizzou only needs 1 win to get to 5-3.

What happens in this scneario (what I think is most likely):
Florida beats USC & Vandy (finishes 5-3)
Mizzou beats Arkansas; loses to TAMU & UT (5-3)
Georgia beats UK; loses to Auburn (5-3)
 
#19
#19
golfballs said:
Something is a little off with these scenarios.

Mizzou only needs 1 win to get to 5-3.

What happens in this scneario (what I think is most likely):
Florida beats USC & Vandy (finishes 5-3)
Mizzou beats Arkansas; loses to TAMU & UT (5-3)
Georgia beats UK; loses to Auburn (5-3)
Click to expand...

Wouldn't UF go based on division record?
 
#20
#20
I believe in any event Gators simply have to have UT beat Mizzou.

So go Vols, and stuff.

Honestly, I have mixed feelings. I don't see how you can fire your head coach when he wins the division. If he can't hang onto his job doing that, then the job becomes unmanageable and unattractive, imo.
 
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#22
#22
lawgator1 said:
I believe in any event Gators simply have to have UT beat Mizzou.

So go Vols, and stuff.

Honestly, I have mixed feelings. I don't see how you can fire your head coach when he wins the division. If he can't hang onto his job doing that, then the job becomes unmanageable and unattractive, imo.
Click to expand...

Certainly makes things interesting...
 
#23
#23
lawgator1 said:
I believe in any event Gators simply have to have UT beat Mizzou.

So go Vols, and stuff.

Honestly, I have mixed feelings. I don't see how you can fire your head coach when he wins the division. If he can't hang onto his job doing that, then the job becomes unmanageable and unattractive, imo.
Click to expand...

And AU or KY need to beat UGA.

I honestly believe if AU beats UGA, UF is as close to a lock as you can get without actually having it clinched. UF is on a roll right now and will finish strong, and I don't think UT will drop another.
 
#24
#24
golfballs said:
Something is a little off with these scenarios.

Mizzou only needs 1 win to get to 5-3.

What happens in this scneario (what I think is most likely):
Florida beats USC & Vandy (finishes 5-3)
Mizzou beats Arkansas; loses to TAMU & UT (5-3)
Georgia beats UK; loses to Auburn (5-3)
Click to expand...

I have that one in there, don't I?

Oh I see. Typo on my part. #4 under 3 team tiebreaker is supposed to be that. (Same way # 3 is supposed to have the same scenario as far as Missouri goes...otherwise it's just the second one under Missouri's clinching scenarios). Corrected.


Thanks for noticing and pointing that out.
 
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