This offense can’t win on 3rd and long

#76
#76
BruinVol said:
I gave that


Both teams had the same amount of 3rd and longs


Exactly the same at this point but of course there are two games left
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That is surprising. Last years offense was much better than this years so I would have thought their percentages would have been better.

Thanks for the work on this!!
 
#77
#77
BowlBrother85 said:
You can't treat every 3rd and 10 play as if they are all the same from a strategical play-calling sense. This is a meaningless stat without factoring in variables which include extending drives which had to be extended because we were behind vs just trying to run the clock out with a big lead .... or run up the score. This is a junk thread topic.
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Yeah I didn’t think of it from that perspective. Field position would be a big factor in the play calling on third and long.
 
#78
#78
DuckInAPen said:
He gave statistics -- without any context -- indicating that in 2022 we converted 1.5% fewer 3rd and longs than our opponents did (1 fewer conversion for every 75 attempts). He then concludes that the offense -- which was the best in the country during the period he examined -- is flawed.
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Exactly. Not every 3rd and 10 is going to be the same from a play calling sense. It matters significantly that we had the lead on many more possessions last season. It only stands to reason that the play calling on 3rd and 10 will be different based on the score of the game and how much time is left.
 
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#79
#79
volfan411 said:
That is surprising. Last years offense was much better than this years so I would have thought their percentages would have been better.

Thanks for the work on this!!
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The stat that is crazy to me is how good we are after being 2nd and long. Even this years team is way better than our opponents and I thought 2nd and 8 was a death sentence
 
#80
#80
BowlBrother85 said:
Exactly. Not every 3rd and 10 is going to be the same from a play calling sense. It matters significantly that we had the lead on many more possessions last season. It only stands to reason that the play calling on 3rd and 10 will be different based on the score of the game and how much time is left.
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If you think CJH wasn’t chasing pts when he was way ahead last year you aren’t thinking clearly…

Remember mizzu ??
 
#81
#81
BruinVol said:
This thread is dedicated to @Vol8188 who ask for proof that this offense wasn’t suited for 3rd and long.


Well I went back and looked at every single game from 2022 and compared it to our 13 opponents… I really woud really have thought the #1 offense in the country would have been better than it’s opponents… well it wasn’t..


Last year(2012 the great banner year) facing 3rd and 6 or longer the Vols were 28.9% and our Opponents were 30.4%



It’s clear to me (and yea the numbers show it) that this offense wasn’t built to convert 3rd and longs.


And yea I used all 13 opponents with those stats
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Interesting data and thanks for crunching it. Did last year’s number one offense see fewer 3rd and long situations on average as a percentage of total offensive plays compared to other teams?
 
#82
#82
BruinVol said:
If you think CJH wasn’t chasing pts when he was way ahead last year you aren’t thinking clearly…

Remember mizzu ??
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I remember running the ball a lot on 3rd and 10 last year ... especially, if we were backed up in our own end ... because not risking a turnover was more important than trying to extend a drive in a game where we had the lead. It is silly to act like every 3rd and 10 is made the same, with no allowances for things such as the score, the amount of time left, field position, and whether or not the starters are still in the game. Your approach to these stats is basically, "All 3rd downs are equally important - One size fits all." Is that practical from a strategical standpoint?
 
#83
#83
BowlBrother85 said:
I remember running the ball a lot on 3rd and 10 last year ... especially, if we were backed up in our own end ... because not risking a turnover was more important than trying to extend a drive in a game where we had the lead. It is silly to act like every 3rd and 10 is made the same, with no allowances for things such as the score, the amount of time left and field position. Your approach to these stats is basically, "All 3rd downs are equally important - One size fits all." Is that practical from a strategical standpoint?
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By the way many of 3rd and long conversions were on runs both years
 
#86
#86
BruinVol said:
Lol and yea CJH was chasing pts in those games as well but you know that
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LOL.

It is crazy that you want to treat every 3rd down conversion as though they are all of equal importance, and therefore, have the same play-calling strategy.

Does Heupel like to run up the score? It sure seems like it ... but is he going to be as aggressive deep in his own end with a big lead, as he might have to be if he's behind? No. You can't treat every 3rd down conversion as if they are all made the same.
 
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#89
#89
BowlBrother85 said:
There was more to that post. Your approach to these stats is grossly over-simplified.
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The simple facts are this offenses weakness is 3rd and long. Other styles have more success than we do in those situations and let’s hope CJH can evolve to improve that weakness
 
#90
#90
BruinVol said:
83rd in the land with Hooker as the QB on 3rd down conversions …


26th under Milton


The offense is flawed as it just can’t overcome down and distance
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This offense when working at tempo as designed should pick up chunks rushing about 5 yards per play. If we avoid stupid penalties, we shouldn’t be in many third and longs.
This year we have not been getting in front of the chains very well on first and second downs, at least against quality opponents
 
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#92
#92
BruinVol said:
The simple facts are this offenses weakness is 3rd and long. Other styles have more success than we do in those situations and let’s hope CJH can evolve to improve that weakness
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The stats you have cited do not prove that. They are completely void of context.

There are too many variables, involving the score of the game, the amount of time left, field position and the personnel currently in the game, which you have not accounted for. Play-calling strategies will differ based on those factors. You want to treat every third down as if each of those plays are all of equal importance to their games. You can't do that, and come away with any meaningful conclusions. You are over-simplifying the matter.
 
#93
#93
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Most offenses can't. That's why you will see that a key for almost any team to win almost any game is: "avoid 3rd and long".
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Yeah I agree. I believe to fully understand this stat your premise should be fully understood as well. Great offenses don’t find themselves in 3rd and long very often and that kinda makes it a moot point IMO.
 
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#94
#94
tennrich1 said:
Yeah I agree. I believe to fully understand this stat your premise should be fully understood as well. Great offenses don’t find themselves in 3rd and long very often and that kinda makes it a moot point IMO.
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No doubt the Vols offense is in 3rd and long Much less than our opponents. So that’s great but what I want to know is can CJH evolve?


I remember it being discussed when we hired him the passing offense was based off throws on the LOS and deep shots. There has always been a void in the middle yardages which is what is needed on 3rd and longs. From what I can tell CJH hasn’t evolved at this point and this weakness needs to improve if we are going to close the gap with Georgia
 
#95
#95
BruinVol said:
The simple facts are this offenses weakness is 3rd and long. Other styles have more success than we do in those situations and let’s hope CJH can evolve to improve that weakness
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Other styles also don’t score as many points. It baffles me why you choose to ignore the only stat that matters. Heupel needs not to adapt a thing
 
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#96
#96
volfan_28 said:
Other styles also don’t score as many points. It baffles me why you choose to ignore the only stat that matters. Heupel needs not to adapt a thing
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Well maybe we should talk about the fact we only score about half our seasons average when we play good teams ???


So yea we need to adapt to close the gap of our competitors for sec titles
 
#97
#97
I think everyone struggles on 3rd and long. You only have one play to get 6+ yards, pressure increases and your odds of converting go down astronomically. I don’t think it’s a problem in the design of the offense. Statistically, this year may have been better than last year, but I would guess based on what I saw this season that UT was worse on 1st and 2nd down this year than last.
 
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#98
#98
BruinVol said:
No doubt the Vols offense is in 3rd and long Much less than our opponents. So that’s great but what I want to know is can CJH evolve?


I remember it being discussed when we hired him the passing offense was based off throws on the LOS and deep shots. There has always been a void in the middle yardages which is what is needed on 3rd and longs. From what I can tell CJH hasn’t evolved at this point and this weakness needs to improve if we are going to close the gap with Georgia
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Good points. I do think defensive alignment dictates were the ball usually goes on 3rd and long. The middle of the field is usually taken away. But it would be an added dimension to see the midrange throw game improve…especially on 3rd down. Hopefully next season Nico will have a great feel for that an improve the stat.
 
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#99
#99
BowlBrother85 said:
You can't treat every 3rd and 10 play as if they are all the same from a strategical play-calling sense. This is a meaningless stat without factoring in variables which include extending drives which had to be extended because we were behind vs just trying to run the clock out with a big lead .... or run up the score. This is a junk thread topic.
Click to expand...

Or backed up near our own goal line and just playing safe to punt.

Like I said earlier, there are so many variable to read anything out of this.
 
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#100
#100
BruinVol said:
Well maybe we should talk about the fact we only score about half our seasons average when we play good teams ???


So yea we need to adapt to close the gap of our competitors for sec titles
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Other than scoring only 13 on the road (and in the rain) against the best defense in the country (a team that hasn't been beaten in three years), we scored no fewer than 31 points in any game (no fewer than 38 in SEC play).

If we're looking to close a gap, our 3rd-and-long conversion rate just isn't where it's at.
 
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