I Created a CFB Ranking System

#26
#26
Okay Mal, I'll get the whole country done ASAP, but for now here's how my system sees the SEC shaking out this year. Remember, the system is the system and it cannot be argued with.

The formula:

Team's 2015 Score - Average 2015 Score of 2016 Opponents = Predictive Score

1. Alabama - 60.5040
2. Florida - 43.9310
3. Miss St - 28.2556
4. Georgia - 27.6782
5. Tennessee - 24.7728
6. Ole Miss - 23.4511
7. LSU - 23.2072
8. Texas A&M - 14.0138
9. Arkansas - 9.7494
10. Missouri - -5.6491
11. Auburn - -8.6513
12. Vanderbilt - -17.4990
13. Kentucky - -24.3189
14. South Carolina - -29.5386
 
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#27
#27
bamawriter said:
SEC for all 4 years

2011
68. Tennessee 5-7 103.5082

2012
71. Tennessee 5-7 100.8810

2013
69. Tennessee 5-7 104.4726

2014
48. Tennessee 6-6 117.6812
Click to expand...

Just shows how bad we've been recently. BTW, I think you've came up with a very great formula in computing rankings. I think it's the best I've seen. I was on another forum earlier this year & some guy on there thought he had it all figured out & his was the best. I have to disagree with him now after seeing yours. It's a great formula.

The only thing I questioned a bit when I 1st read the thread was about the conference not seeming to matter. I thought about it & agreed with you. I hate like you that point differential has been taken out by the NCAA.

It's just a win baby thing. Yeah, that's the most important thing is to win the game but there's more to it than that if you ask me & like you said.

I'm going to keep this formula for future reference to get figures as the 2016 goes along. Thanks for sharing bud.

You're a Bama fan I see but you have provided something really nice. That's hard to do for a Bama fan! LOL :dance2:
 
#32
#32
bamawriter said:
Okay Mal, I'll get the whole country done ASAP, but for now here's how my system sees the SEC shaking out this year. Remember, the system is the system and it cannot be argued with.

The formula:

Team's 2015 Score - Average 2015 Score of 2016 Opponents = Predictive Score

1. Alabama - 60.5040
2. Florida - 43.9310
3. Miss St - 28.2556
4. Georgia - 27.6782
5. Tennessee - 24.7728
6. Ole Miss - 23.4511
7. LSU - 23.2072
8. Texas A&M - 14.0138
9. Arkansas - 9.7494
10. Missouri - -5.6491
11. Auburn - -8.6513
12. Vanderbilt - -17.4990
13. Kentucky - -24.3189
14. South Carolina - -29.5386
Click to expand...

Thanks, Bama! I was just curious to see what would pop out. Interesting.
 
#33
#33
Sorry for the delay. Got distracted today. Here is the preseason Top 25 (and the rest if the SEC) according to my formula. Remember: this is math. You cannot argue with math. It's always right.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Michigan St
6. Houston
7. Florida
8. Temple
9. Stanford
10. Michigan
11. Ohio St
12. Baylor
13. Navy
14. North Carolina
15. Western Kentucky
16. TCU
17. Appalachian St
18. Bowling Green
19. Oklahoma St
20. Notre Dame
21. Toledo
22. San Diego St
23. Oregon
24. Memphis
25. Utah

26. Mississippi St
28. Georgia
31. Tennessee
33. Ole Miss
34. LSU
50. Texas A&M
56. Arkansas
77. Missouri
78. Auburn
80. Vanderbilt
83. Kentucky
87. South Carolina
 
#34
#34
bamawriter said:
Sorry for the delay. Got distracted today. Here is the preseason Top 25 (and the rest if the SEC) according to my formula. Remember: this is math. You cannot argue with math. It's always right.

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Michigan St
6. Houston
7. Florida
8. Temple
9. Stanford
10. Michigan
11. Ohio St
12. Baylor
13. Navy
14. North Carolina
15. Western Kentucky
16. TCU
17. Appalachian St
18. Bowling Green
19. Oklahoma St
20. Notre Dame
21. Toledo
22. San Diego St
23. Oregon
24. Memphis
25. Utah

26. Mississippi St
28. Georgia
31. Tennessee
33. Ole Miss
34. LSU
50. Texas A&M
56. Arkansas
77. Missouri
78. Auburn
80. Vanderbilt
83. Kentucky
87. South Carolina
Click to expand...

UT #31? I know that's wrong math! LOL! :p I hope you're wrong. I don't think any UT fan would be happy at all with us ending up as the 31st ranked team in the country.

I know that I would be extremely disappointed! Take the 1 off the number 3 for us & I think you'll be much closer without using any math! :p
 
#35
#35
tonybologna said:
UT #31? I know that's wrong math! LOL! :p I hope you're wrong. I don't think any UT fan would be happy at all with us ending up as the 31st ranked team in the country.

I know that I would be extremely disappointed! Take the 1 off the number 3 for us & I think you'll be much closer without using any math! :p
Click to expand...

This system wasn't really set up to predict anything. It simply compares results. All I did was take info from last year and apply it to every team's 2016 schedule, which is a really stupid way to do it.
 
#36
#36
bamawriter said:
This system wasn't really set up to predict anything. It simply compares results. All I did was take info from last year and apply it to every team's 2016 schedule, which is a really stupid way to do it.
Click to expand...

Oh! I see now. You can't think of a better way to do it other than basing it on the 2016 schedule for all teams?
 
#37
#37
bamawriter said:
This system wasn't really set up to predict anything. It simply compares results. All I did was take info from last year and apply it to every team's 2016 schedule, which is a really stupid way to do it.
Click to expand...

Hey, it's a starting point. I've never played with a rankings system, however, I can imagine the work that went into it, tho.
 
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#38
#38
bamawriter said:
This system wasn't really set up to predict anything. It simply compares results. All I did was take info from last year and apply it to every team's 2016 schedule, which is a really stupid way to do it.
Click to expand...

Could you possibly combine any type of pre-season poll ranking system from all sorts of media? Like Phil Steele, Lindy's, AP, Coaches Poll, Sports Illustrated, etc. to come up with a starting point of some kind? Just an idea. I know nothing about what would be best. Just crossed my mind.
 
#39
#39
bamawriter said:
This system wasn't really set up to predict anything. It simply compares results. All I did was take info from last year and apply it to every team's 2016 schedule, which is a really stupid way to do it.
Click to expand...

Could you possibly combine any type of 2016 pre-season poll ranking system from all sorts of media? Like Phil Steele, Lindy's, AP, Coaches Poll, Sports Illustrated, etc. to come up with a starting point of some kind? Just an idea. I know nothing about what would be best. Just crossed my mind.
 
#40
#40
tonybologna said:
Could you possibly combine any type of pre-season poll ranking system from all sorts of media? Like Phil Steele, Lindy's, AP, Coaches Poll, Sports Illustrated, etc. to come up with a starting point of some kind? Just an idea. I know nothing about what would be best. Just crossed my mind.
Click to expand...

There are few websites out there that do a consensus list that combines all sorts of polls.

What I was trying to do here is rank teams purely using math with no bias or subjectivity. So adding in anyone else's opinion defeats the purpose.
 
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#41
#41
bamawriter said:
There are few websites out there that do a consensus list that combines all sorts of polls.

What I was trying to do here is rank teams purely using math with no bias or subjectivity. So adding in anyone else's opinion defeats the purpose.
Click to expand...

Gotcha!
 
#42
#42
bamawriter said:
SEC for all 4 years

2011
1. LSU 13-0 188.2562
3. Alabama 11-1 173.7730
14. South Carolina 10-2 148.2888
16. Arkansas 10-2 146.1907
19. Georgia 10-3 141.4765
40. Auburn 7-5 116.9293 (#25 in BCS... ?)
45. Miss St 6-6 113.4671
48. Florida 6-6 112.2024
60. Vanderbilt 6-6 108.2522
68. Tennessee 5-7 103.5082
89. Kentucky 5-7 84.8307
102. Ole Miss 2-10 67.2253

2012
2. Alabama 12-1 174.6355
3. Florida 11-1 173.8223
7. Texas A&M 10-2 160.7176
10. South Carolina 10-2 154.3490
11. Georgia 11-2 152.4381
12. LSU 10-2 152.4073
43. Vanderbilt 8-4 121.4854
47. Miss St 8-4 119.8356
57. Ole Miss 6-6 111.4547
62. Missouri 5-7 108.4747
71. Tennessee 5-7 100.8810
76. Arkansas 4-8 93.0683
94. Auburn 3-9 79.9716
104. Kentucky 2-10 69.3372

2013
3. Auburn 12-1 168.2563
4. Alabama 11-1 168.1934
7. Missouri 11-2 156.5091
14. South Carolina 10-2 149.3371
21. Georgia 8-4 141.1884
22. LSU 9-3 139.4226
23. Texas A&M 8-4 139.3518
38. Ole Miss 7-5 126.6995
49. Miss St 6-6 118.4756
58. Vanderbilt 8-4 111.6524
69. Tennessee 5-7 104.4726
79. Florida 4-8 98.4718
96. Arkansas 3-9 78.6074
106. Kentucky 2-10 65.6213

2014
2. Alabama 12-1 172.8373
7. Ole Miss 9-3 158.1338
11. Miss St 10-2 153.8700
13. Georgia 9-3 148.0006
16. Auburn 8-4 146.0563
19. Missouri 10-3 139.4307
22. LSU 8-4 136.2366
28. Arkansas 6-6 131.4989
42. Texas A&M 7-5 121.2140
46. Florida 6-5 119.2841
48. Tennessee 6-6 117.6812
61. South Carolina 6-6 109.3448
81. Kentucky 5-7 95.7120
113. Vanderbilt 3-9 65.0973
Click to expand...

Where's 2015? Thanks in advance. I ask because I'm curious to see where we rank in comparison to the national polls.
 
#43
#43
TennTom said:
Where's 2015? Thanks in advance. I ask because I'm curious to see where we rank in comparison to the national polls.
Click to expand...

On my phone, but I believe UT finished at #31.

ETA: It was actually #32.
 
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#44
#44
bamawriter said:
On my phone, but I believe UT finished at #31.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't argue with that really. Despite being competitive, the only teams of merit we beat were Georgia and NW.

Pretty cool system you've developed.

I look forward to seeing your updates as the season progresses. Do you plan on doing a preseason?

Keep up the good work.
 
#45
#45
WilliamDuVOL said:
I wouldn't argue with that really. Despite being competitive, the only teams of merit we beat were Georgia and NW.
Click to expand...

Northwestern wasn't included in UT's score because I stopped before the bowl games. It's worth noting that, at #32, UT was the second-highest ranked 8-4 team. Only Mississippi State finished higher, at #28 (playing in the SEC West really helps your SOS).

Do you plan on doing a preseason?
Click to expand...

I sort of half-*ssed one earlier in the thread. The system really doesn't lend itself to making predictions. It compares results, and in the preseason there are no results to compare. Which, of course, is a good argument against preseason polls in general.
 
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#46
#46
bamawriter said:
Northwestern wasn't included in UT's score because I stopped before the bowl games. It's worth noting that, at #32, UT was the second-highest ranked 8-4 team. Only Mississippi State finished higher, at #28 (playing in the SEC West really helps your SOS).



I sort of half-*ssed one earlier in the thread. The system really doesn't lend itself to making predictions. It compares results, and in the preseason there are no results to compare. Which, of course, is a good argument against preseason polls in general.
Click to expand...

I agree with you about preseason polls, but they're still a glimmer of football in this sports devoid wasteland we call the summer lol.
 
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#49
#49
31. Tennessee
Click to expand...

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13. Navy
15. Western Kentucky
17. Appalachian St
34. LSU
Click to expand...

tumblr_m1vdlhn4bs1qk553k.gif
 
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