DiderotsGhost
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After watching four weeks of college football, I feel more confident about our Vols making a bowl game. Our defense has looked much better than expected (particularly the D-line) and while our offense has struggled with O-line issues, we've still managed to have some success (but turnovers have been a killer!)
Here's the rest of our schedule and my analysis on our odds of winning. I'd be curious to hear everyone else's thoughts, as well.
@ Georgia
Odds: 40%
I still think we're the underdogs vs UGA, but feeling more confident about our chances after watching their defense completely fall apart vs South Carolina. At the beginning of the season, I thought Jeremy Pruitt would have this team in much better shape on defense, but it seems like they are still struggling. This is still a very good football team, and we're going to have difficulty handling Gurley, but now I feel like we have a realistic shot at an upset.
vs Florida
Odds: 45%
So many people are pointing out Florida's woes at Bama as evidence we should beat them. I'm not so sure. Florida's defense played pretty good, created a lot of pressure, and forced quite a few turnovers. That's bad news given our weakness on the Offensive Line. Nevertheless, Florida's less-than-impressive offense gives us a shot at victory this year, if we can just avoid big mistakes. We have a good shot at winning, but it's not going to be a cakewalk against that defense.
vs Chattanooga
Odds: 98%
Chattanooga is better than most people think, but I'd still be surprised if they beat us. If you look at the I-AA teams that tend to pull upsets, they normally have some difficult element to defend (e.g. Georgia Southern's triple-option).
@ Ole Miss
Odds: 40%
This is another D-line that could make life miserable for our offense. At the same time, their offense has appeared one dimensional at times. Definitely think we have a shot, but should still be considered underdogs.
vs Alabama
Odds: 20%
I was really impressed by Bama's performance vs. Florida. If they hadn't turned the ball over so much, that game would have been a massive blowout. We have a chance, as we match up with Bama reasonably well in some areas. But I have to think their superior talent and years of excellent coaching give them an overall advantage.
@ South Carolina
Odds: 52%
My read on SC is that they are somewhat like the 2013 Texas A&M team: great offense, no defense. I feel pretty good about our chances against them, but I wouldn't overlook how well they've played on the offensive side of the ball. The good news: I think we have a better defensive match-up against them than UGA. Their weak pass rush is another big benefit, given our weakness on the O-line. We might find ourselves with more leeway on offense against SC than we will against most of our top opponents (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Bama, Florida, UGA).
vs Kentucky
Odds: 65%
Don't overlook this team. Mark Stoops has done an excellent job in Lexington. We have more talent and the game is at Neyland, so I would certainly view us as favorites, but I wouldn't write off the Wildcats this year, either.
vs Mizzou
Odds: 60%
Still don't know what to make of Mizzou. Thought they were one of the most overrated teams coming into the season. They looked spectacular against UCF and I thought my pre-season prognosis might have been off. Then they looked horrible against Indiana, and suddenly my pre-season prediction seemed spot-on. I definitely do not envision us getting beaten to a pulp this year, like we did last year. And I think we're the better team.
@ Vanderbilt
Odds: 80%
The only downside here is that we have to wait till the end of the season to play Vandy, because I don't think they'd stand a chance against us now. We'll see how they progress, but right now, I have to think we're heavy favorites versus them.
Overall Prediction: 7-5
Right now, I see us as a 6- or 7- win team against this difficult schedule. My prediction is that we pull at least one more upset (Ole Miss, UGA, Florida, Bama), but that we lose at least one out of the rest of our slate (e.g. South Carolina, Kentucky, Mizzou).
I think our offense will improve as the year goes on, but more teams will find ways to exploit our defense. Remember, we used a lot of gimmicks on defense to keep Oklahoma in check. Future opponents are going to gameplan around that better.
One thing I can say ... I am very excited about seeing how this team progresses. I could see it improving quicker than expected and surprising a lot of people. I also like that we have an outside shot at winning the SEC East this year if we play well (given the weakness of the division).
Here's the rest of our schedule and my analysis on our odds of winning. I'd be curious to hear everyone else's thoughts, as well.
@ Georgia
Odds: 40%
I still think we're the underdogs vs UGA, but feeling more confident about our chances after watching their defense completely fall apart vs South Carolina. At the beginning of the season, I thought Jeremy Pruitt would have this team in much better shape on defense, but it seems like they are still struggling. This is still a very good football team, and we're going to have difficulty handling Gurley, but now I feel like we have a realistic shot at an upset.
vs Florida
Odds: 45%
So many people are pointing out Florida's woes at Bama as evidence we should beat them. I'm not so sure. Florida's defense played pretty good, created a lot of pressure, and forced quite a few turnovers. That's bad news given our weakness on the Offensive Line. Nevertheless, Florida's less-than-impressive offense gives us a shot at victory this year, if we can just avoid big mistakes. We have a good shot at winning, but it's not going to be a cakewalk against that defense.
vs Chattanooga
Odds: 98%
Chattanooga is better than most people think, but I'd still be surprised if they beat us. If you look at the I-AA teams that tend to pull upsets, they normally have some difficult element to defend (e.g. Georgia Southern's triple-option).
@ Ole Miss
Odds: 40%
This is another D-line that could make life miserable for our offense. At the same time, their offense has appeared one dimensional at times. Definitely think we have a shot, but should still be considered underdogs.
vs Alabama
Odds: 20%
I was really impressed by Bama's performance vs. Florida. If they hadn't turned the ball over so much, that game would have been a massive blowout. We have a chance, as we match up with Bama reasonably well in some areas. But I have to think their superior talent and years of excellent coaching give them an overall advantage.
@ South Carolina
Odds: 52%
My read on SC is that they are somewhat like the 2013 Texas A&M team: great offense, no defense. I feel pretty good about our chances against them, but I wouldn't overlook how well they've played on the offensive side of the ball. The good news: I think we have a better defensive match-up against them than UGA. Their weak pass rush is another big benefit, given our weakness on the O-line. We might find ourselves with more leeway on offense against SC than we will against most of our top opponents (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Bama, Florida, UGA).
vs Kentucky
Odds: 65%
Don't overlook this team. Mark Stoops has done an excellent job in Lexington. We have more talent and the game is at Neyland, so I would certainly view us as favorites, but I wouldn't write off the Wildcats this year, either.
vs Mizzou
Odds: 60%
Still don't know what to make of Mizzou. Thought they were one of the most overrated teams coming into the season. They looked spectacular against UCF and I thought my pre-season prognosis might have been off. Then they looked horrible against Indiana, and suddenly my pre-season prediction seemed spot-on. I definitely do not envision us getting beaten to a pulp this year, like we did last year. And I think we're the better team.
@ Vanderbilt
Odds: 80%
The only downside here is that we have to wait till the end of the season to play Vandy, because I don't think they'd stand a chance against us now. We'll see how they progress, but right now, I have to think we're heavy favorites versus them.
Overall Prediction: 7-5
Right now, I see us as a 6- or 7- win team against this difficult schedule. My prediction is that we pull at least one more upset (Ole Miss, UGA, Florida, Bama), but that we lose at least one out of the rest of our slate (e.g. South Carolina, Kentucky, Mizzou).
I think our offense will improve as the year goes on, but more teams will find ways to exploit our defense. Remember, we used a lot of gimmicks on defense to keep Oklahoma in check. Future opponents are going to gameplan around that better.
One thing I can say ... I am very excited about seeing how this team progresses. I could see it improving quicker than expected and surprising a lot of people. I also like that we have an outside shot at winning the SEC East this year if we play well (given the weakness of the division).
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