Is Tennessee a Title Contender?

Is Tennessee a contender this year?


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#1

Rifleman

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#1
This time of year, a lot of hype and manure is spread without much regard for fact, and there is a lot of media speculation around who will do what based on factors that are irrelevant to the final outcomes of the season.

Let's be real here. There are some in the media who are over-hyping the strength of this Tennessee football team. There are some who "hate us" and won't give us our due respect.

It is true that we are not at the level of our last championship team, which was one of the greatest college teams ever in my opinion. But does that mean that Tennessee at this point in our rebuild is not a contender to win it all? I say we are.

This seems contradictory, sure, but the playing field is college football is not level. Every NCAA team does not play the same strength of schedule, which is why certain colleges in other conferences are perennial contenders even when they field mediocre teams.

This year, the field tilts a little in our favor. Using the ESPN FPI predictors, I have calculated the probability that a given team will go undefeated throughout the regular season. To me, this is the best measure of who is, and isn't, a contender, because the first step in getting to the playoff is beating the opponents on your schedule.

Contender Rank by Chance of Undefeated Regular Season

1) Oklahoma 21.5%
2) FSU 12.06%
3) Clemson 9.7%
4) LSU 8.47%
5) Tennessee 8.05%
6) Michigan 8.04%
7) Washington 2.7%
8) Oklahoma State 2.01%
9) Alabama 1.63%
10) Georgia 1.46%
11) UCLA 1.4%
12) Nebraska 1.19%
13) USC 1.10%
14) Louisville 1.04%
15) Baylor 1.00%

By this metric, Tennessee and LSU would be the most likely match up in the SEC title game. As long as both were undefeated, then the winner would advance to the playoff. The same is very likely true if both teams were at 1 loss.

The best odds for the playoff:

Oklahoma

Conference Title Game Winners

Florida State/Clemson
LSU/Tennessee
Michigan/Nebraska

Washington/UCLA (probably on the outside looking in)

Sure this is not the best team we have ever seen at Tennessee, but it is by far the best we have seen in a long while. We catch Florida and Bama at home, and we have always played tough at UGA. Even a 1 loss Tennessee team would likely make the playoff if they won in Atlanta.

So, no, I do not think it is a stretch to say we are contenders to win it all. We have a very realistic shot to be one of the 4 teams left standing at the end.
 
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#7
#7
I agree we are a contender. We have depth, talent and experience. More importantly we have the battle scars to go toe to toe for 4 qtrs in close games. Lastly, we have a proven QB unlike the rest of the teams in the division.
 
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#9
#9
I say yes but as does any top 15-20 team.
We fall in that range so yes.
But first thing first for me -win the east, judge what we accomplished in order to get there. Then evaluate if we have a legitimate shot at the west champs.
 
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#10
#10
Our schedule certainly sets up well. I'm going to be ticked if we can't beat a significantly weaker Florida team at home this year. No more excuses this time around.
 
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#12
#12
Our schedule certainly sets up well. I'm going to be ticked if we can't beat a significantly weaker Florida team at home this year. No more excuses this time around.

compared to GA and FL, they have easier roads to ATL than we do. neither have to play Bama and neither have a road game as hard as aTm.

and i don't know why everyone thinks FL is all the sudden some second rate MAC school? "significantly weaker"? really?

we've lost, recently, to a lot worse FL teams than this.
 
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#13
#13
compared to GA and FL, they have easier roads to ATL than we do. neither have to play Bama and neither have a road game as hard as aTm.

and i don't know why everyone thinks FL is all the sudden some second rate MAC school? "significantly weaker"? really?

we've lost, recently, to a lot worse FL teams than this.

This is the truth Jake. Why in the world anybody thinks Florida will be worse this year, in year 2 under CJM who worked a borderline miracle last year, is far beyond me. We SHOULD beat them this year, just like we SHOULD HAVE beaten them each of the last two seasons. But this is freakin Florida we're talking about. Has no one been paying attention all these years?
 
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#14
#14
Our schedule certainly sets up well. I'm going to be ticked if we can't beat a significantly weaker Florida team at home this year. No more excuses this time around.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think Florida will be significantly weaker this year?
 
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#18
#18
compared to GA and FL, they have easier roads to ATL than we do. neither have to play Bama and neither have a road game as hard as aTm.

and i don't know why everyone thinks FL is all the sudden some second rate MAC school? "significantly weaker"? really?

we've lost, recently, to a lot worse FL teams than this.

Doesn't UGA go to Ole Miss?
 
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#20
#20
yes. they do. and i would think the 100k at college station, home of the 12th man is going to be tougher than 50k in bow ties and docksiders.........:)

With all the troubles and talent loss, OM may be in for a down year. I agree that UGA playing AUB and OM, appears less intense than Bama and ATM this year.

On UF: I believe many are remembering the drop off that came with the loss of their qb last year. Coach JM seems like the type that will come back with a new plan to off set what he has lost. I believe we finally have a slight advantage (on paper) but no clue why some are discussing Fl like they hired Mason and are filled with 2 stars.
 
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#21
#21
yes. they do. and i would think the 100k at college station, home of the 12th man is going to be tougher than 50k in bow ties and docksiders.........:)

I absolutely agree. I would much rather our guys line up against 50k fans than 100k fans, but since those fans won't actually be on the field, we should probably discuss the teams being played.

IMO OM is the better team. I'd rather play aTm than OM.
 
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#22
#22
With all the troubles and talent loss, OM may be in for a down year. I agree that UGA playing AUB and OM, appears less intense than Bama and ATM this year.

On UF: I believe many are remembering the drop off that came with the loss of their qb last year. Coach JM seems like the type that will come back with a new plan to off set what he has lost. I believe we finally have a slight advantage (on paper) but no clue why some are discussing Fl like they hired Mason and are filled with 2 stars.

i think Ole Miss is going to come back down to earth a bit as well. i think they still are pretty good. just don't see them coming out of hte West with 10+ wins, and they get GA from the East. they could lose to Bama, LSU, aTm, GA and still be a pretty damn good football team.

i look at it like this, who do you think has a better chance of winning...GA @ Ole Miss or TN @ aTm?
 
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#23
#23
I absolutely agree. I would much rather our guys line up against 50k fans than 100k fans, but since those fans won't actually be on the field, we should probably discuss the teams being played.

IMO OM is the better team. I'd rather play aTm than OM.

i hope you're right b/c i think aTm could have a "big" season. that team does not lack for talent. they have a few question marks, but got a huge break with Trevor Knight transferring in. i don't think they'll win the West or anything, but i could see them having a similar season that Ole Miss had last year.

bottom line, GA is not heading to Oxford to play the same Ole Miss team that blew our doors off a couple years ago. there's a lot of new faces....
 
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#24
#24
Some of our fan base is sadly mistaken if they think FL will be a push over. They got talent and always will. It's just now we are on level playing field again talent wise.
 
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#25
#25
We were so close last year and with what we have coming in and what we kept here, we will be better. We have turned the corner talent wise, and are getting back to a level where we can impose our will on the teams we play.

Shoop is a game changer along with JRM, CS and Kongbo. It's only paper for now but it's the same for every team just paper.

Florida has got to prove they can rebound and get back on track, Bama has got prove it on the field too. We are in the best position to make some noise.

It's gonna be a special year, we are title contenders.

Jump higher Vols.
 
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