DG’s Giant TL;DR Completely Worthless Pre-Season Boredom Roundup!

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DiderotsGhost

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#1
We still have like a grueling 5 weeks till the start of college football season. And I'm bored waiting on it. So why not pass the time by reading my completely useless opinions on Tennessee football and the SEC!? Sounds like a striking idea, eh?


The Defense

Our "D" Will Improve at 9 of 11 Positions. Think about that for a second. Few of the football analysts seem to be considering that our defense will improve in at least 9 out of 11 positions this season and perhaps even 10 out of 11. Derek Barnett is irreplaceable, but is there any other position on the field where we should expect to be worse off than we were at the end of last season? Remember, most of the great defenders that we lost (JRM, Sutton) were injured or playing at “not-100%” last season. With healthy defenders and an upgrade in the coaching staff (Warren), we should be much better on defense than we were at the end of last season.

Upgrade in Coaching Staff. At least on paper, we now have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the nation. Charlton Warren did an outstanding job with defensive backs at UNC; huge upgrade over Willie Martinez. Brady Hoke may have failed as Head Coach at Michigan but he has an excellent track record on defense. At Michigan, Hoke immediately improved the defense which struggled under RichRod, leading to an 11-2 season in 2011. Hoke’s problem at Michigan was lack of offensive identity; not defense.

Our D-Line Could Be Very Good. D-Barnett is an all-time great, but we still have one of the best D-lines in the SEC if we stay healthy. We bring back Kendal Vickers, Jonathan Kongbo, and Kahlil McKenzie. Darrell Taylor is getting rave reviews. If Kyle Phillips can step up his game and Shy Tuttle can get healthy, we have a fantastic D-line!

LBs Can’t Get Worse. We had a worst case scenario with injuries to JRM and Kirkland last season. With Kirkland back, we'll be better. Also, I'm optimistic that guys like Bituli, McDowell, and Sapp will step up. At the very least, our depth at LB is better this season, even if we lose a great in JRM.

The Secondary Looks Good. Shag Wiggins is a big addition. We bring back Todd Kelly, the promising Micah Abernathy, Nigel Warrior, Justin Martin, Rashaan Gaulden, Baylen Buchnan, E-Moseley, and Evan Berry. We lose Cam Sutton, which is a big loss, but Cam was injured a good chunk of last season, as well. I expect this to be our most improved position group.

Overall on D. I'm quite optimistic about our defense this year. It's being very underrated in the media. We looked great early last season against VT, App State, and Florida; we fell apart after all the injuries. The media is still assuming we'll play like we did against Vanderbilt on D.



The Offense

I have more concerns on offense.

Breaking in new QB. While I think Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano both have the potential to be top-tier QBs, the fact of the matter remains that it’s always tough to break in a new starting QB. We might get off to a slow start as a result.

Also breaking in new WRs. Similar to the QB position, we have a lot of promising talent at WR, but not a lot of guys with a ton of game experience. Jauan Jennings is our obvious #1 guy. Outside of JJ, we have Marquez Callaway, Tyler Byrd, and Brandon Johnson showing some promise, but we just don’t know how they’ll shape up yet. We need a few of these guys to step up big-time.

Also breaking in new RBs. Noticing a theme here? We bring back veteran John Kelly, but we’ll be breaking in a lot of guys w/o much experience including Carlin Fils-Aime, Ty Chandler, and a bunch of unknowns. Very tough to say how this unit will perform. CFA and Chandler were highly regarded in high school, but they still have to “prove it” on the college field. CFA got some carries last season, but still feel like he's mostly an "unknown."

Also breaking in new coaching staff. I’m optimistic about the Larry Scott promotion to OC, but yet again, it’s another area where we’re breaking in a “new team” so to speak. Ultimately, whether the hires prove to be smart or not, it would not be shocking to see some struggles early.

Mike Canales = Big Improvement. We’ve been without a real full-time QB coach for years and our QB play has suffered as a result. Canales has almost immediately improved the QB position and it seems that a lot of basics (e.g. footwork) had been neglected in the past couple of years.

O-line = best on paper since Fulmer years. We had major O-line depth issues during Jones’ 2nd and 3rd seasons. That’s no longer the case; we now have an abundance of riches at OL. That said, our O-line underperformed last season. We’re going to have to “wait and see” if Walt Wells can do a better job managing these guys. If he can, we have a potential elite O-line unit on our hands. Look at our roster: Jashon Robertson, Trey Smith, Chance Hall, Jack Jones, Drew Richmond, Ryan Johnson, Brett Kendrick, Marcus Tatum, Coleman Thomas, Venzell Boulware. We have 10+ guys that could start on some SEC squads.

Don't Overlook Drew Richmond. One of the weirder offseason themes here at VN is some people calling Drew Richmond a "bust". Seriously? Absolutely ridiculous! Most SEC O-linemen don't even see the field in their first two seasons. Some don't get significant playing time till Year 4 or Year 5 in the program. The fact that Richmond started a few games as a RS Freshman at one of the most difficult positions says to me that he has potential to be elite. Also, here's a good 247 write-up on Richmond; while fluff pieces can be just that, I think our own fan base is underrating Richmond.

If O-Line Can Show it’s Worth …. I believe that our offense this season is going to come down to that O-line. If it can play up to its potential, it’s going to take a lot of pressure of our QB (either QD or JG), help out our inexperienced RBs, and give our inexperienced WRs more time to get open. Josh Dobbs had to scramble way too much the past couple of seasons and we can’t count on that any more. This O-line needs to be the rock for this offense.



Schedule, Predictions

Brutal schedule. Best argument against the 2017 Vols is the brutal schedule. Bama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, GA Tech, and a road game at Mizzou. As usual, we have one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

The Good News = Lots of Home Games. Even if our schedule is tough, we really only have four true road games and one of those is at Kentucky. GA-Tech is neutral site, but even in Atlanta against an Atlanta-based GA Tech, we probably have a neutral-site edge in fandom.

Slow Start.It’s not what you want to hear, but don’t be surprised by a slow start. With so many new offensive skill players, it’s probably going to take a few games for our offense to find its rhythm. That’s bad news since, as always, our schedule is front-loaded.

Weird Season. I sort of expect a weird season. We have loads of talent, but lots of inexperience, particularly on offense. I think we’ll probably get upset by someone we’re supposed to beat and win 1 or 2 that we’re not supposed to win. I would not be surprised if we shock LSU at the end of the season, but drop one to GA Tech or Mizzou. This just feels like one of those teams that, at its best, can beat anyone, but will likely have hiccups along the way.

My Past Predictions. Every season under Butch Jones, I’ve picked us to win exactly one more game than we did in reality. Maybe I should pick us to go 16 and -1 this year, eh?



Predicted Win Probabilities

Here are my own completely unscientific win probabilities. Last year I had us going 9-3 based on this method.

Georgia Tech = 68%. On paper, we’re better than GT. In reality, GT is one of the most miserable teams in all of the NCAA to prepare and can upset anyone who comes in unprepared. The good news is that we have months to prepare for them.

Indiana State = 99.9%. We’re all entitled to one cupcake per season.

@ Florida = 58%.
I have a good feeling about beating Florida at the Swamp this season. Let’s just say I’m not sold on Jim McElwain.

UMass = 98%. They went 2-10 last season, though they almost upset South Carolina, and gave Florida a scare for awhile.

Georgia = 49%. Good news is that we play at Neyland Stadium. Bad news is that I suspect that Georgia might actually be pretty damn good this year. Hopefully I’m wrong. I’m calling it a coin flip.

South Carolina = 69%. After losing to SC last year, I’m reluctant to push our odds too high. Muschamp is known for strong defenses. Jake Bentley was impressive as QB. Nevertheless, it’s at Neyland and we’re world’s better than SC on paper. I will not be happy if Butch finds yet another way to lose to Muschamp.

@ Alabama = 22%. Not impossible, but can’t say I’m optimistic about beating the Alabama juggernaut after watching our dismal performance last year.

@ Kentucky = 76%. In spite of several people predicting that Kentucky will beat us this year, I don’t see it. Kentucky’s defense is still trash.

Southern Miss = 95%. One of those dangerous games. Southern Miss is one of the consistently good mid-major programs and I don’t like having them randomly thrown on the schedule in the middle of our SEC slate. At least theoretically, we should beat them, but this is one of those games you have to worry about guys giving 100% effort.

@ Mizzou = 72%. This game worries me for some reason. Drew Lock is pretty good. It's at Mizzou. I expect us to win, but this game stands out like a sore thumb as one where we could get comfortable and lose if we don't play 100%.

LSU= 50%. LSU is supposed to be a top 10 team this season and will be favored to walk into Neyland and pound us. They are certainly the favorite, yet I feel pretty good about this game right now. If our offense continues to improve throughout the season, this seems like it could be a real “statement game” for them. Nevertheless, calling this anything better than a “coin flip” would be generous. LSU will be tough.

Vanderbilt = 85%
. I don’t expect us to lose to Vandy two years in a row and not in Neyland.

Expected Outcome. 8.4 wins and 3.6 losses. I’d say expect another 8-4 season, but if we go 9-3, then this team did very well.

Should We Be Happy? I think people are getting carried away with the “if we don’t go 11-1 and win the SEC East, it’s a failed season” nonsense. The goal is to win SEC championships, but realistically speaking, we have a better shot at competing for the SEC in 2018 than 2017. I want to see some quality wins more than anything this season. We know we’ll probably drop a few games, but the question is whether we’re building up to compete for a championship.




Other Thoughts

Butch's Recruiting is Lights-Out. It seemed like Butch & co struggled a bit with recruiting in 2017, but they are burning it up on the recruiting trail for the 2018 class. I suspect that the staff changes have helped with recruiting, as well. That makes me more optimistic about the future.

Jim McElwain. McElwain strikes me as a Larry Coker type; he's a very good coach, but I don't know that he's a program-builder or a program-maintainer. He inherited elite defenses and a lot of great offensive skill players who were poorly utilized under Muschamp. All McElwain has done is taken Muschamp’s players and met expectations with them, but he's been hailed as a hero for it. McElwain’s last two classes were ranked #11 and #12, which isn’t bad theoretically, but with Florida’s huge advantages in recruiting, they should have top 5, top 10 classes every year. They are now consistently getting beat on the recruiting trail by Florida State and Miami. All this is to say, I think Florida may have a ceiling under McElwain.

Kirby Smart. No opinion on Kirby yet. Disappointing 8-5 season last year, but they also had a difficult transition at QB and lost 3 very close games against us, GT, and Vandy. Improved as the season went along, as well. I could see UGA being one of the more improved teams this year.

Mark Stoops. Good coach, but there’s a ceiling at Kentucky. And he’s yet to field a team with any semblance of a defense.

Florida May Have QB Problems This Season. Malik Zaire, Felipe Franks, Luke Del Rio, Jake Allen. To me, this looks like Georgia’s QB race in 2015; a bunch of OK QBs but no one stands out as an obvious starter.

My Predicted SEC East Finishing Order.

1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Florida
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky
7. Mizzou


Analyst Predictions

Preseason Consensus = 3rd in SEC East. I’ve scoured a few publications and it seems like the most predominant opinion is that our Vols finish 3rd in the SEC East this season behind Georgia (1st) and Florida (2nd).

Alabama Near-Unanimous Pick to Win SEC. No one going out on a ledge there.

LSU Predicted 2nd Best.
We seem to have the terrible misfortune of having to play two of the best SEC West teams every year. The curse continues, as LSU is expected to be very good this season. Whether that pans out or not, I’m not sure. LSU is certainly the 2nd most talented team in the SEC this season and Derrius Guice is a beast. Nevertheless, LSU has underperformed for years. Ed Orgeron doesn’t exactly have the best track record as “Captain of the Ship.” And it’s tough to even remember the last time LSU had a QB that lived up to expectations. Still, LSU will be tough.

Kentucky is set up for a letdown. Every season, there’s some bandwagon team that will ultimately disappoint and this season that might be Kentucky. Inexplicably, there are quite a number of analysts who think Kentucky is making the leap this year. SEC Analyst Cole Cubelic says this is the year Kentucky finishes 3rd ahead of the Vols . While some of the cases for Kentucky are based on “easy schedule”, USA Today analyst Danny Sheridan actually predicts that Kentucky will beat the Vols.. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss Kentucky and Mark Stoops has done a good job building up a historically weak program, but this is still a team that routinely gives up 40+ points per game on D. While the schedule is “easy” by SEC standards, I have to think that 8-4 is the ceiling (and that Miss State game is much tougher than it sounds.)

No respect for Quinten Dormady. I already posted about this in another thread, but our potential starting QB, Quinten Dormady, is not getting much respect from the media. Barton Simmons of 247 rates him as 13th in the SEC, with a ceiling as #9. While QD doesn’t have a lot of on-the-field experience, neither do a lot of the people rated above him. I have to think our QB situation is being significantly underrated in the media. Note that Shea Patterson is rated #4 based on a 1-2 record against middling teams with mediocre stats in a pass-heavy offense. Outside of Jalen Hurts, Jarrett Stidham, and Nick Fitzgerald, none of the SEC QBs are all that “proven.” The QD / Jarrett Guarantano combo is probably in the 2nd tier of SEC QBs for now (alongside Jake Bentley, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason); we're not the 2nd worst.

Chip on the Ole' Shoulder. I'm hoping the extremely depressed preseason expectations for us lead the team to play with a chip on their shoulder. Last year we were expected to be insanely good and finish 11-1 or 10-2. We weren't. This year, people expect us to go 7-5. That seems a bit pessimistic.



Overall

I’m optimistic about the season. While the analysts seem to be down on us, like the 1998 season, I feel like the analysts are significantly underrating our team simply because we’re breaking in a new QB and our defense struggled with injuries last season. I’m not predicting a national title by any stretch of the imagination, but I certainly think we’re better than these 7-5 predictions that have us anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the East. It’ll be difficult, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see us pull off a 9-win regular season.

Ultimately, though, I’m going to judge this team by how they look at the end of the season. We may struggle early breaking in so many new offensive skill players and even most of our offensive coaching staff is new, but I want to see a top 10 team by the end of the season. One that can compete with LSU.

In any case, 5 more miserable weeks before the season starts!

GO BIG ORANGE!
 
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#8
#8
Man knows his Vols. Your take is pretty close to mine. At this point being overly optimistic is the norm for most. Negas are always looking for their pessimism, saying they are just being realistic. I would rather be optimistic until proven wrong. Go Vols. Got my season tickets today!!!
 
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#9
#9
Thanks, DG, was a really fun read. Appreciate you taking the effort to entertain us and give us things to discuss.

In that vein, a few comments:

  • Don't forget Josh Smith. You mention Jauan Jennings as our sole returning experienced WR, but Josh remains a solid member of the squad, fist fight with roommate or no.
  • Really, really agree on Mike Canales. He is one of two big reasons I think we'll have less setback breaking in a new QB than teams normally do (the other is QD's uncanny maturity and 2 years of experience in the QB room talking the language, learning the play book, and getting ready).
  • Can't agree on the schedule. I think this year's schedule is the most favorable we've seen in several years. No brutal late-Sep to mid-Oct stretch of four ranked opponents in a row (like last year's FL-UGa-A&M-Bama gauntlet, or 2015's FL-Arky-UGa-Bama). We have an ostensibly easier opponent or an open week prior to each of our five biggest challenges (Ga Tech ... FL ... UGa ... Bama ... LSU). On top of which, LSU is late in the season, when they're historically a weaker team. So yeah, I like the 2017 schedule better than any we've had in years.

Thanks again, DG, really appreciate it!
 
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#15
#15
Dang DG, that beats the brakes off most sports journalism in magazines / websites etc. Enjoyed it.

I agree with most everything except maybe two things.
#1 The WR group is typical of a lot of groups on this team. A star is gone, but a really nice group of players is growing up for this season. With Jennings & Smith plus all the speed and youth, I believe the group will be better overall than last year. Malone was productive for us, but replaceable. I'll take a bigger group of experienced players over a bunch of youth and a star, as compared to last season.
#2 Special Teams have been trUly impressive under Jones. Great KR good backup, great punter, experienced and projected good kicker, plus plenty of talent replacing our two drafted PRs. All our STs have been impressive. I expect this one to be on par as well.

Goot stuff man.
 
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#16
#16
[*]Don't forget Josh Smith. You mention Jauan Jennings as our sole returning experienced WR, but Josh remains a solid member of the squad, fist fight with roommate or no.

Admittedly, wasn't 100% sure what was going on with Josh Smith, which is why I neglected to mention him. Seems like the personal problems are piling up, but I agree he's been one of our more productive receivers.

[*]Can't agree on the schedule. I think this year's schedule is the most favorable we've seen in several years. No brutal late-Sep to mid-Oct stretch of four ranked opponents in a row (like last year's FL-UGa-A&M-Bama gauntlet, or 2015's FL-Arky-UGa-Bama). We have an ostensibly easier opponent or an open week prior to each of our five biggest challenges (Ga Tech ... FL ... UGa ... Bama ... LSU). On top of which, LSU is late in the season, when they're historically a weaker team. So yeah, I like the 2017 schedule better than any we've had in years.

I think the schedule is tough, but I agree it's spaced out a bit better than it has been in the past. That's one of the first things I noticed about it. But I've also learned that it's tough to fully judge it preseason. I could definitely see one of these SEC East teams being much tougher than anticipated (e.g. South Carolina or Vanderbilt). I also feel like LSU is tough to predict right now ... they could be a 10-2 top 10 team or they could be a 7-5 disappointment. The media views the former as more likely, but it's really tough to say this early. The team is loaded talent-wise, but I'm not sure if the team will improve or not under Coach Orgeron.


#2 Special Teams have been trUly impressive under Jones. Great KR good backup, great punter, experienced and projected good kicker, plus plenty of talent replacing our two drafted PRs. All our STs have been impressive. I expect this one to be on par as well.

I agree. Special Teams has been ... well ... "special" under Butch. I forgot to mention STs in my write-up.
 
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#17
#17
I also feel like LSU is tough to predict right now ... they could be a 10-2 top 10 team or they could be a 7-5 disappointment. The media views the former as more likely, but it's really tough to say this early. The team is loaded talent-wise, but I'm not sure if the team will improve or not under Coach Orgeron.

It seems to me, no matter what shape LSU is in from one season to the next, they always get the benefit of a doubt. Even with the Les Miles departure and propping up of Orgeron, they were still viewed as a great team and would be dangerous.
 
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#18
#18
It seems to me, no matter what shape LSU is in from one season to the next, they always get the benefit of a doubt. Even with the Les Miles departure and propping up of Orgeron, they were still viewed as a great team and would be dangerous.

The main reason is that they are always one of the best teams in the nation talent-wise. They've had top 5 talent for most of the past 15 years. They will, once again, this season. And the next. And probably the next. I think you could argue that did very well with that talent up till about 2014. It's only the past three seasons that they've underperformed significantly.
 
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#21
#21
I don't know why people keep dissing Jim McElwain. He won 9 games last year with no QB or decent skill position players. 3 of his 4 losses were to teams ranked #14 or higher and won a difficult game vs LSU to put his team in the SEC championship game. I'm putting this as a loss in Gainesville for us.
 
#23
#23
I don't know why people keep dissing Jim McElwain. He won 9 games last year with no QB or decent skill position players. 3 of his 4 losses were to teams ranked #14 or higher and won a difficult game vs LSU to put his team in the SEC championship game. I'm putting this as a loss in Gainesville for us.

Honest opinions and criticism is only allowed with Butch?
 
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#24
#24
We still have like a grueling 5 weeks till the start of college football season. And I'm bored waiting on it. So why not pass the time by reading my completely useless opinions on Tennessee football and the SEC!? Sounds like a striking idea, eh?


The Defense

Our "D" Will Improve at 9 of 11 Positions. Think about that for a second. Few of the football analysts seem to be considering that our defense will improve in at least 9 out of 11 positions this season and perhaps even 10 out of 11. Derek Barnett is irreplaceable, but is there any other position on the field where we should expect to be worse off than we were at the end of last season? Remember, most of the great defenders that we lost (JRM, Sutton) were injured or playing at “not-100%” last season. With healthy defenders and an upgrade in the coaching staff (Warren), we should be much better on defense than we were at the end of last season.

Upgrade in Coaching Staff. At least on paper, we now have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the nation. Charlton Warren did an outstanding job with defensive backs at UNC; huge upgrade over Willie Martinez. Brady Hoke may have failed as Head Coach at Michigan but he has an excellent track record on defense. At Michigan, Hoke immediately improved the defense which struggled under RichRod, leading to an 11-2 season in 2011. Hoke’s problem at Michigan was lack of offensive identity; not defense.

Our D-Line Could Be Very Good. D-Barnett is an all-time great, but we still have one of the best D-lines in the SEC if we stay healthy. We bring back Kendal Vickers, Jonathan Kongbo, and Kahlil McKenzie. Darrell Taylor is getting rave reviews. If Kyle Phillips can step up his game and Shy Tuttle can get healthy, we have a fantastic D-line!

LBs Can’t Get Worse. We had a worst case scenario with injuries to JRM and Kirkland last season. With Kirkland back, we'll be better. Also, I'm optimistic that guys like Bituli, McDowell, and Sapp will step up. At the very least, our depth at LB is better this season, even if we lose a great in JRM.

The Secondary Looks Good. Shag Wiggins is a big addition. We bring back Todd Kelly, the promising Micah Abernathy, Nigel Warrior, Justin Martin, Rashaan Gaulden, Baylen Buchnan, E-Moseley, and Evan Berry. We lose Cam Sutton, which is a big loss, but Cam was injured a good chunk of last season, as well. I expect this to be our most improved position group.

Overall on D. I'm quite optimistic about our defense this year. It's being very underrated in the media. We looked great early last season against VT, App State, and Florida; we fell apart after all the injuries. The media is still assuming we'll play like we did against Vanderbilt on D.



The Offense

I have more concerns on offense.

Breaking in new QB. While I think Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano both have the potential to be top-tier QBs, the fact of the matter remains that it’s always tough to break in a new starting QB. We might get off to a slow start as a result.

Also breaking in new WRs. Similar to the QB position, we have a lot of promising talent at WR, but not a lot of guys with a ton of game experience. Jauan Jennings is our obvious #1 guy. Outside of JJ, we have Marquez Callaway, Tyler Byrd, and Brandon Johnson showing some promise, but we just don’t know how they’ll shape up yet. We need a few of these guys to step up big-time.

Also breaking in new RBs. Noticing a theme here? We bring back veteran John Kelly, but we’ll be breaking in a lot of guys w/o much experience including Carlin Fils-Aime, Ty Chandler, and a bunch of unknowns. Very tough to say how this unit will perform. CFA and Chandler were highly regarded in high school, but they still have to “prove it” on the college field. CFA got some carries last season, but still feel like he's mostly an "unknown."

Also breaking in new coaching staff. I’m optimistic about the Larry Scott promotion to OC, but yet again, it’s another area where we’re breaking in a “new team” so to speak. Ultimately, whether the hires prove to be smart or not, it would not be shocking to see some struggles early.

Mike Canales = Big Improvement. We’ve been without a real full-time QB coach for years and our QB play has suffered as a result. Canales has almost immediately improved the QB position and it seems that a lot of basics (e.g. footwork) had been neglected in the past couple of years.

O-line = best on paper since Fulmer years. We had major O-line depth issues during Jones’ 2nd and 3rd seasons. That’s no longer the case; we now have an abundance of riches at OL. That said, our O-line underperformed last season. We’re going to have to “wait and see” if Walt Wells can do a better job managing these guys. If he can, we have a potential elite O-line unit on our hands. Look at our roster: Jashon Robertson, Trey Smith, Chance Hall, Jack Jones, Drew Richmond, Ryan Johnson, Brett Kendrick, Marcus Tatum, Coleman Thomas, Venzell Boulware. We have 10+ guys that could start on some SEC squads.

Don't Overlook Drew Richmond. One of the weirder offseason themes here at VN is some people calling Drew Richmond a "bust". Seriously? Absolutely ridiculous! Most SEC O-linemen don't even see the field in their first two seasons. Some don't get significant playing time till Year 4 or Year 5 in the program. The fact that Richmond started a few games as a RS Freshman at one of the most difficult positions says to me that he has potential to be elite. Also, here's a good 247 write-up on Richmond; while fluff pieces can be just that, I think our own fan base is underrating Richmond.

If O-Line Can Show it’s Worth …. I believe that our offense this season is going to come down to that O-line. If it can play up to its potential, it’s going to take a lot of pressure of our QB (either QD or JG), help out our inexperienced RBs, and give our inexperienced WRs more time to get open. Josh Dobbs had to scramble way too much the past couple of seasons and we can’t count on that any more. This O-line needs to be the rock for this offense.



Schedule, Predictions

Brutal schedule. Best argument against the 2017 Vols is the brutal schedule. Bama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, GA Tech, and a road game at Mizzou. As usual, we have one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

The Good News = Lots of Home Games. Even if our schedule is tough, we really only have four true road games and one of those is at Kentucky. GA-Tech is neutral site, but even in Atlanta against an Atlanta-based GA Tech, we probably have a neutral-site edge in fandom.

Slow Start.It’s not what you want to hear, but don’t be surprised by a slow start. With so many new offensive skill players, it’s probably going to take a few games for our offense to find its rhythm. That’s bad news since, as always, our schedule is front-loaded.

Weird Season. I sort of expect a weird season. We have loads of talent, but lots of inexperience, particularly on offense. I think we’ll probably get upset by someone we’re supposed to beat and win 1 or 2 that we’re not supposed to win. I would not be surprised if we shock LSU at the end of the season, but drop one to GA Tech or Mizzou. This just feels like one of those teams that, at its best, can beat anyone, but will likely have hiccups along the way.

My Past Predictions. Every season under Butch Jones, I’ve picked us to win exactly one more game than we did in reality. Maybe I should pick us to go 16 and -1 this year, eh?



Predicted Win Probabilities

Here are my own completely unscientific win probabilities. Last year I had us going 9-3 based on this method.

Georgia Tech = 68%. On paper, we’re better than GT. In reality, GT is one of the most miserable teams in all of the NCAA to prepare and can upset anyone who comes in unprepared. The good news is that we have months to prepare for them.

Indiana State = 99.9%. We’re all entitled to one cupcake per season.

@ Florida = 58%.
I have a good feeling about beating Florida at the Swamp this season. Let’s just say I’m not sold on Jim McElwain.

UMass = 98%. They went 2-10 last season, though they almost upset South Carolina, and gave Florida a scare for awhile.

Georgia = 49%. Good news is that we play at Neyland Stadium. Bad news is that I suspect that Georgia might actually be pretty damn good this year. Hopefully I’m wrong. I’m calling it a coin flip.

South Carolina = 69%. After losing to SC last year, I’m reluctant to push our odds too high. Muschamp is known for strong defenses. Jake Bentley was impressive as QB. Nevertheless, it’s at Neyland and we’re world’s better than SC on paper. I will not be happy if Butch finds yet another way to lose to Muschamp.

@ Alabama = 22%. Not impossible, but can’t say I’m optimistic about beating the Alabama juggernaut after watching our dismal performance last year.

@ Kentucky = 76%. In spite of several people predicting that Kentucky will beat us this year, I don’t see it. Kentucky’s defense is still trash.

Southern Miss = 95%. One of those dangerous games. Southern Miss is one of the consistently good mid-major programs and I don’t like having them randomly thrown on the schedule in the middle of our SEC slate. At least theoretically, we should beat them, but this is one of those games you have to worry about guys giving 100% effort.

@ Mizzou = 72%. This game worries me for some reason. Drew Lock is pretty good. It's at Mizzou. I expect us to win, but this game stands out like a sore thumb as one where we could get comfortable and lose if we don't play 100%.

LSU= 50%. LSU is supposed to be a top 10 team this season and will be favored to walk into Neyland and pound us. They are certainly the favorite, yet I feel pretty good about this game right now. If our offense continues to improve throughout the season, this seems like it could be a real “statement game” for them. Nevertheless, calling this anything better than a “coin flip” would be generous. LSU will be tough.

Vanderbilt = 85%
. I don’t expect us to lose to Vandy two years in a row and not in Neyland.

Expected Outcome. 8.4 wins and 3.6 losses. I’d say expect another 8-4 season, but if we go 9-3, then this team did very well.

Should We Be Happy? I think people are getting carried away with the “if we don’t go 11-1 and win the SEC East, it’s a failed season” nonsense. The goal is to win SEC championships, but realistically speaking, we have a better shot at competing for the SEC in 2018 than 2017. I want to see some quality wins more than anything this season. We know we’ll probably drop a few games, but the question is whether we’re building up to compete for a championship.




Other Thoughts

Butch's Recruiting is Lights-Out. It seemed like Butch & co struggled a bit with recruiting in 2017, but they are burning it up on the recruiting trail for the 2018 class. I suspect that the staff changes have helped with recruiting, as well. That makes me more optimistic about the future.

Jim McElwain. McElwain strikes me as a Larry Coker type; he's a very good coach, but I don't know that he's a program-builder or a program-maintainer. He inherited elite defenses and a lot of great offensive skill players who were poorly utilized under Muschamp. All McElwain has done is taken Muschamp’s players and met expectations with them, but he's been hailed as a hero for it. McElwain’s last two classes were ranked #11 and #12, which isn’t bad theoretically, but with Florida’s huge advantages in recruiting, they should have top 5, top 10 classes every year. They are now consistently getting beat on the recruiting trail by Florida State and Miami. All this is to say, I think Florida may have a ceiling under McElwain.

Kirby Smart. No opinion on Kirby yet. Disappointing 8-5 season last year, but they also had a difficult transition at QB and lost 3 very close games against us, GT, and Vandy. Improved as the season went along, as well. I could see UGA being one of the more improved teams this year.

Mark Stoops. Good coach, but there’s a ceiling at Kentucky. And he’s yet to field a team with any semblance of a defense.

Florida May Have QB Problems This Season. Malik Zaire, Felipe Franks, Luke Del Rio, Jake Allen. To me, this looks like Georgia’s QB race in 2015; a bunch of OK QBs but no one stands out as an obvious starter.

My Predicted SEC East Finishing Order.

1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Florida
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky
7. Mizzou


Analyst Predictions

Preseason Consensus = 3rd in SEC East. I’ve scoured a few publications and it seems like the most predominant opinion is that our Vols finish 3rd in the SEC East this season behind Georgia (1st) and Florida (2nd).

Alabama Near-Unanimous Pick to Win SEC. No one going out on a ledge there.

LSU Predicted 2nd Best.
We seem to have the terrible misfortune of having to play two of the best SEC West teams every year. The curse continues, as LSU is expected to be very good this season. Whether that pans out or not, I’m not sure. LSU is certainly the 2nd most talented team in the SEC this season and Derrius Guice is a beast. Nevertheless, LSU has underperformed for years. Ed Orgeron doesn’t exactly have the best track record as “Captain of the Ship.” And it’s tough to even remember the last time LSU had a QB that lived up to expectations. Still, LSU will be tough.

Kentucky is set up for a letdown. Every season, there’s some bandwagon team that will ultimately disappoint and this season that might be Kentucky. Inexplicably, there are quite a number of analysts who think Kentucky is making the leap this year. SEC Analyst Cole Cubelic says this is the year Kentucky finishes 3rd ahead of the Vols . While some of the cases for Kentucky are based on “easy schedule”, USA Today analyst Danny Sheridan actually predicts that Kentucky will beat the Vols.. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss Kentucky and Mark Stoops has done a good job building up a historically weak program, but this is still a team that routinely gives up 40+ points per game on D. While the schedule is “easy” by SEC standards, I have to think that 8-4 is the ceiling (and that Miss State game is much tougher than it sounds.)

No respect for Quinten Dormady. I already posted about this in another thread, but our potential starting QB, Quinten Dormady, is not getting much respect from the media. Barton Simmons of 247 rates him as 13th in the SEC, with a ceiling as #9. While QD doesn’t have a lot of on-the-field experience, neither do a lot of the people rated above him. I have to think our QB situation is being significantly underrated in the media. Note that Shea Patterson is rated #4 based on a 1-2 record against middling teams with mediocre stats in a pass-heavy offense. Outside of Jalen Hurts, Jarrett Stidham, and Nick Fitzgerald, none of the SEC QBs are all that “proven.” The QD / Jarrett Guarantano combo is probably in the 2nd tier of SEC QBs for now (alongside Jake Bentley, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason); we're not the 2nd worst.

Chip on the Ole' Shoulder. I'm hoping the extremely depressed preseason expectations for us lead the team to play with a chip on their shoulder. Last year we were expected to be insanely good and finish 11-1 or 10-2. We weren't. This year, people expect us to go 7-5. That seems a bit pessimistic.



Overall

I’m optimistic about the season. While the analysts seem to be down on us, like the 1998 season, I feel like the analysts are significantly underrating our team simply because we’re breaking in a new QB and our defense struggled with injuries last season. I’m not predicting a national title by any stretch of the imagination, but I certainly think we’re better than these 7-5 predictions that have us anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the East. It’ll be difficult, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see us pull off a 9-win regular season.

Ultimately, though, I’m going to judge this team by how they look at the end of the season. We may struggle early breaking in so many new offensive skill players and even most of our offensive coaching staff is new, but I want to see a top 10 team by the end of the season. One that can compete with LSU.

In any case, 5 more miserable weeks before the season starts!

GO BIG ORANGE!

Best analysis I've read. Great job, can't find anything to argue about. (not that I have the knowledge to do so)
BUT I just wonder about the Barnett thing. I think he was somewhat weak on running plays that faked him inside.(many times) Not to say that wasn't what he was told to do(rush inside). We may be really surprised by the way our defense end play performs this year. May be more effect overall than last year, even though guys are not Barnett supermen...
 
#25
#25
We still have like a grueling 5 weeks till the start of college football season. And I'm bored waiting on it. So why not pass the time by reading my completely useless opinions on Tennessee football and the SEC!? Sounds like a striking idea, eh?


The Defense

Our "D" Will Improve at 9 of 11 Positions. Think about that for a second. Few of the football analysts seem to be considering that our defense will improve in at least 9 out of 11 positions this season and perhaps even 10 out of 11. Derek Barnett is irreplaceable, but is there any other position on the field where we should expect to be worse off than we were at the end of last season? Remember, most of the great defenders that we lost (JRM, Sutton) were injured or playing at “not-100%” last season. With healthy defenders and an upgrade in the coaching staff (Warren), we should be much better on defense than we were at the end of last season.

Upgrade in Coaching Staff. At least on paper, we now have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the nation. Charlton Warren did an outstanding job with defensive backs at UNC; huge upgrade over Willie Martinez. Brady Hoke may have failed as Head Coach at Michigan but he has an excellent track record on defense. At Michigan, Hoke immediately improved the defense which struggled under RichRod, leading to an 11-2 season in 2011. Hoke’s problem at Michigan was lack of offensive identity; not defense.

Our D-Line Could Be Very Good. D-Barnett is an all-time great, but we still have one of the best D-lines in the SEC if we stay healthy. We bring back Kendal Vickers, Jonathan Kongbo, and Kahlil McKenzie. Darrell Taylor is getting rave reviews. If Kyle Phillips can step up his game and Shy Tuttle can get healthy, we have a fantastic D-line!

LBs Can’t Get Worse. We had a worst case scenario with injuries to JRM and Kirkland last season. With Kirkland back, we'll be better. Also, I'm optimistic that guys like Bituli, McDowell, and Sapp will step up. At the very least, our depth at LB is better this season, even if we lose a great in JRM.

The Secondary Looks Good. Shag Wiggins is a big addition. We bring back Todd Kelly, the promising Micah Abernathy, Nigel Warrior, Justin Martin, Rashaan Gaulden, Baylen Buchnan, E-Moseley, and Evan Berry. We lose Cam Sutton, which is a big loss, but Cam was injured a good chunk of last season, as well. I expect this to be our most improved position group.

Overall on D. I'm quite optimistic about our defense this year. It's being very underrated in the media. We looked great early last season against VT, App State, and Florida; we fell apart after all the injuries. The media is still assuming we'll play like we did against Vanderbilt on D.



The Offense

I have more concerns on offense.

Breaking in new QB. While I think Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano both have the potential to be top-tier QBs, the fact of the matter remains that it’s always tough to break in a new starting QB. We might get off to a slow start as a result.

Also breaking in new WRs. Similar to the QB position, we have a lot of promising talent at WR, but not a lot of guys with a ton of game experience. Jauan Jennings is our obvious #1 guy. Outside of JJ, we have Marquez Callaway, Tyler Byrd, and Brandon Johnson showing some promise, but we just don’t know how they’ll shape up yet. We need a few of these guys to step up big-time.

Also breaking in new RBs. Noticing a theme here? We bring back veteran John Kelly, but we’ll be breaking in a lot of guys w/o much experience including Carlin Fils-Aime, Ty Chandler, and a bunch of unknowns. Very tough to say how this unit will perform. CFA and Chandler were highly regarded in high school, but they still have to “prove it” on the college field. CFA got some carries last season, but still feel like he's mostly an "unknown."

Also breaking in new coaching staff. I’m optimistic about the Larry Scott promotion to OC, but yet again, it’s another area where we’re breaking in a “new team” so to speak. Ultimately, whether the hires prove to be smart or not, it would not be shocking to see some struggles early.

Mike Canales = Big Improvement. We’ve been without a real full-time QB coach for years and our QB play has suffered as a result. Canales has almost immediately improved the QB position and it seems that a lot of basics (e.g. footwork) had been neglected in the past couple of years.

O-line = best on paper since Fulmer years. We had major O-line depth issues during Jones’ 2nd and 3rd seasons. That’s no longer the case; we now have an abundance of riches at OL. That said, our O-line underperformed last season. We’re going to have to “wait and see” if Walt Wells can do a better job managing these guys. If he can, we have a potential elite O-line unit on our hands. Look at our roster: Jashon Robertson, Trey Smith, Chance Hall, Jack Jones, Drew Richmond, Ryan Johnson, Brett Kendrick, Marcus Tatum, Coleman Thomas, Venzell Boulware. We have 10+ guys that could start on some SEC squads.

Don't Overlook Drew Richmond. One of the weirder offseason themes here at VN is some people calling Drew Richmond a "bust". Seriously? Absolutely ridiculous! Most SEC O-linemen don't even see the field in their first two seasons. Some don't get significant playing time till Year 4 or Year 5 in the program. The fact that Richmond started a few games as a RS Freshman at one of the most difficult positions says to me that he has potential to be elite. Also, here's a good 247 write-up on Richmond; while fluff pieces can be just that, I think our own fan base is underrating Richmond.

If O-Line Can Show it’s Worth …. I believe that our offense this season is going to come down to that O-line. If it can play up to its potential, it’s going to take a lot of pressure of our QB (either QD or JG), help out our inexperienced RBs, and give our inexperienced WRs more time to get open. Josh Dobbs had to scramble way too much the past couple of seasons and we can’t count on that any more. This O-line needs to be the rock for this offense.



Schedule, Predictions

Brutal schedule. Best argument against the 2017 Vols is the brutal schedule. Bama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, GA Tech, and a road game at Mizzou. As usual, we have one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

The Good News = Lots of Home Games. Even if our schedule is tough, we really only have four true road games and one of those is at Kentucky. GA-Tech is neutral site, but even in Atlanta against an Atlanta-based GA Tech, we probably have a neutral-site edge in fandom.

Slow Start.It’s not what you want to hear, but don’t be surprised by a slow start. With so many new offensive skill players, it’s probably going to take a few games for our offense to find its rhythm. That’s bad news since, as always, our schedule is front-loaded.

Weird Season. I sort of expect a weird season. We have loads of talent, but lots of inexperience, particularly on offense. I think we’ll probably get upset by someone we’re supposed to beat and win 1 or 2 that we’re not supposed to win. I would not be surprised if we shock LSU at the end of the season, but drop one to GA Tech or Mizzou. This just feels like one of those teams that, at its best, can beat anyone, but will likely have hiccups along the way.

My Past Predictions. Every season under Butch Jones, I’ve picked us to win exactly one more game than we did in reality. Maybe I should pick us to go 16 and -1 this year, eh?



Predicted Win Probabilities

Here are my own completely unscientific win probabilities. Last year I had us going 9-3 based on this method.

Georgia Tech = 68%. On paper, we’re better than GT. In reality, GT is one of the most miserable teams in all of the NCAA to prepare and can upset anyone who comes in unprepared. The good news is that we have months to prepare for them.

Indiana State = 99.9%. We’re all entitled to one cupcake per season.

@ Florida = 58%.
I have a good feeling about beating Florida at the Swamp this season. Let’s just say I’m not sold on Jim McElwain.

UMass = 98%. They went 2-10 last season, though they almost upset South Carolina, and gave Florida a scare for awhile.

Georgia = 49%. Good news is that we play at Neyland Stadium. Bad news is that I suspect that Georgia might actually be pretty damn good this year. Hopefully I’m wrong. I’m calling it a coin flip.

South Carolina = 69%. After losing to SC last year, I’m reluctant to push our odds too high. Muschamp is known for strong defenses. Jake Bentley was impressive as QB. Nevertheless, it’s at Neyland and we’re world’s better than SC on paper. I will not be happy if Butch finds yet another way to lose to Muschamp.

@ Alabama = 22%. Not impossible, but can’t say I’m optimistic about beating the Alabama juggernaut after watching our dismal performance last year.

@ Kentucky = 76%. In spite of several people predicting that Kentucky will beat us this year, I don’t see it. Kentucky’s defense is still trash.

Southern Miss = 95%. One of those dangerous games. Southern Miss is one of the consistently good mid-major programs and I don’t like having them randomly thrown on the schedule in the middle of our SEC slate. At least theoretically, we should beat them, but this is one of those games you have to worry about guys giving 100% effort.

@ Mizzou = 72%. This game worries me for some reason. Drew Lock is pretty good. It's at Mizzou. I expect us to win, but this game stands out like a sore thumb as one where we could get comfortable and lose if we don't play 100%.

LSU= 50%. LSU is supposed to be a top 10 team this season and will be favored to walk into Neyland and pound us. They are certainly the favorite, yet I feel pretty good about this game right now. If our offense continues to improve throughout the season, this seems like it could be a real “statement game” for them. Nevertheless, calling this anything better than a “coin flip” would be generous. LSU will be tough.

Vanderbilt = 85%
. I don’t expect us to lose to Vandy two years in a row and not in Neyland.

Expected Outcome. 8.4 wins and 3.6 losses. I’d say expect another 8-4 season, but if we go 9-3, then this team did very well.

Should We Be Happy? I think people are getting carried away with the “if we don’t go 11-1 and win the SEC East, it’s a failed season” nonsense. The goal is to win SEC championships, but realistically speaking, we have a better shot at competing for the SEC in 2018 than 2017. I want to see some quality wins more than anything this season. We know we’ll probably drop a few games, but the question is whether we’re building up to compete for a championship.




Other Thoughts

Butch's Recruiting is Lights-Out. It seemed like Butch & co struggled a bit with recruiting in 2017, but they are burning it up on the recruiting trail for the 2018 class. I suspect that the staff changes have helped with recruiting, as well. That makes me more optimistic about the future.

Jim McElwain. McElwain strikes me as a Larry Coker type; he's a very good coach, but I don't know that he's a program-builder or a program-maintainer. He inherited elite defenses and a lot of great offensive skill players who were poorly utilized under Muschamp. All McElwain has done is taken Muschamp’s players and met expectations with them, but he's been hailed as a hero for it. McElwain’s last two classes were ranked #11 and #12, which isn’t bad theoretically, but with Florida’s huge advantages in recruiting, they should have top 5, top 10 classes every year. They are now consistently getting beat on the recruiting trail by Florida State and Miami. All this is to say, I think Florida may have a ceiling under McElwain.

Kirby Smart. No opinion on Kirby yet. Disappointing 8-5 season last year, but they also had a difficult transition at QB and lost 3 very close games against us, GT, and Vandy. Improved as the season went along, as well. I could see UGA being one of the more improved teams this year.

Mark Stoops. Good coach, but there’s a ceiling at Kentucky. And he’s yet to field a team with any semblance of a defense.

Florida May Have QB Problems This Season. Malik Zaire, Felipe Franks, Luke Del Rio, Jake Allen. To me, this looks like Georgia’s QB race in 2015; a bunch of OK QBs but no one stands out as an obvious starter.

My Predicted SEC East Finishing Order.

1. Georgia
2. Tennessee
3. Florida
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Kentucky
7. Mizzou


Analyst Predictions

Preseason Consensus = 3rd in SEC East. I’ve scoured a few publications and it seems like the most predominant opinion is that our Vols finish 3rd in the SEC East this season behind Georgia (1st) and Florida (2nd).

Alabama Near-Unanimous Pick to Win SEC. No one going out on a ledge there.

LSU Predicted 2nd Best.
We seem to have the terrible misfortune of having to play two of the best SEC West teams every year. The curse continues, as LSU is expected to be very good this season. Whether that pans out or not, I’m not sure. LSU is certainly the 2nd most talented team in the SEC this season and Derrius Guice is a beast. Nevertheless, LSU has underperformed for years. Ed Orgeron doesn’t exactly have the best track record as “Captain of the Ship.” And it’s tough to even remember the last time LSU had a QB that lived up to expectations. Still, LSU will be tough.

Kentucky is set up for a letdown. Every season, there’s some bandwagon team that will ultimately disappoint and this season that might be Kentucky. Inexplicably, there are quite a number of analysts who think Kentucky is making the leap this year. SEC Analyst Cole Cubelic says this is the year Kentucky finishes 3rd ahead of the Vols . While some of the cases for Kentucky are based on “easy schedule”, USA Today analyst Danny Sheridan actually predicts that Kentucky will beat the Vols.. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss Kentucky and Mark Stoops has done a good job building up a historically weak program, but this is still a team that routinely gives up 40+ points per game on D. While the schedule is “easy” by SEC standards, I have to think that 8-4 is the ceiling (and that Miss State game is much tougher than it sounds.)

No respect for Quinten Dormady. I already posted about this in another thread, but our potential starting QB, Quinten Dormady, is not getting much respect from the media. Barton Simmons of 247 rates him as 13th in the SEC, with a ceiling as #9. While QD doesn’t have a lot of on-the-field experience, neither do a lot of the people rated above him. I have to think our QB situation is being significantly underrated in the media. Note that Shea Patterson is rated #4 based on a 1-2 record against middling teams with mediocre stats in a pass-heavy offense. Outside of Jalen Hurts, Jarrett Stidham, and Nick Fitzgerald, none of the SEC QBs are all that “proven.” The QD / Jarrett Guarantano combo is probably in the 2nd tier of SEC QBs for now (alongside Jake Bentley, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason); we're not the 2nd worst.

Chip on the Ole' Shoulder. I'm hoping the extremely depressed preseason expectations for us lead the team to play with a chip on their shoulder. Last year we were expected to be insanely good and finish 11-1 or 10-2. We weren't. This year, people expect us to go 7-5. That seems a bit pessimistic.



Overall

I’m optimistic about the season. While the analysts seem to be down on us, like the 1998 season, I feel like the analysts are significantly underrating our team simply because we’re breaking in a new QB and our defense struggled with injuries last season. I’m not predicting a national title by any stretch of the imagination, but I certainly think we’re better than these 7-5 predictions that have us anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the East. It’ll be difficult, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see us pull off a 9-win regular season.

Ultimately, though, I’m going to judge this team by how they look at the end of the season. We may struggle early breaking in so many new offensive skill players and even most of our offensive coaching staff is new, but I want to see a top 10 team by the end of the season. One that can compete with LSU.

In any case, 5 more miserable weeks before the season starts!

GO BIG ORANGE!

Read the entire post and agree with you on most everything said. I might flip Ga and Fla predictions percentage wise but I totally agree on Richmond and I am optimistic that 7 on 7 drills Will help on the slow start as related to QB's and WR's..

Great post!
 

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