DiderotsGhost
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I originally did a write-up and trashed it because it was so bleak and pessimistic. Not my usual style, but tough to deny that things don't look good right now. Here's my second attempt.
The UMass Game
UMass was a bad team. There have been numerous times when VN has underestimated teams outside the Power 5 conferences (or even in the P5 like GT). This is not one of those times. Last season, many on VN underestimated a good App State team. UMass, on the other hand, is one of the worst teams in FBS. It was rated #164 in the Sagarin ratings. As a reminder, there are only 128 teams in I-A (FBS), which means that UMass was rated below several I-AA teams. It was the 5th worst team in FBS; not that much better than Indiana State. All the crap about "playing close games" (are 10 point losses really "close games"?) was ridiculous --- they're "playing close games" against other bad teams.
Bob Shoop's Defense is Good, not Great. I still don't for the life of me understand why the defense is getting most of the flak right now. Defense essentially gave up about 13 points last week against Florida (once you account for turnovers and bad field position). Once again, defense mostly did its job, giving up 13 to a UMass team that has averaged about 21 points. Not an elite performance by any means, but 7 sacks, and they got the stops when they needed them. You can complain that we're still giving up too many yards per play and too many big plays, but overall, it's been a "bend, don't break" defense that has been good enough to win. I'd give Shoop a "B" on the season thus far.
Larry Scott is terrible. This is the 2nd game in a row where Larry Scott deserved an "F" grade. UMass's opponents were averaging about 30 points per game and their strength of schedule was incredibly weak. We should've put up 40+ on these guys with 2nd stringers. 17 points is just pathetic. If we can't put up more than 17 against Georgia, we're doomed.
Quinten Dormady looked good at times. Still inconsistent, but he hit a rhythm right about the time that Butch Jones decided it was time for a QB change. Butch's game management is still beyond bizarre. I thought there was a good case for JG against Florida when QD was struggling. It was difficult to see a reason to yank QD in a close game when he was suddenly starting to hit a groove.
I was wrong. Last week, I said I thought the coaches should be considering JG for the "higher upside", but I have to admit, he just doesn't look like he's ready.
Brandon Johnson. At least he emerged this game. Though, he was about the only receiver that did much.
John Kelly is Elite. Even with UMass basically focusing their entire defense on stopping JK, he still racked up 100+ yards.
One-Man Offense Doesn't Work. JK may be elite, but it's becoming obvious that defenses are just going to focus all their efforts on stopping him and ignoring everything else at this point.
Big Picture
Butch isn't done yet. It looks bad after the past two weeks, but there's still a lot of season left to go. But he's definitely on the "hot seat" at this point, regardless of what anyone in the AD says.
Larry Scott is the key. Hate to say it, but Butch's survival likely depends on Larry Scott figuring out the offense REAL quick.
Can Scott improve? You can forgive Scott a bit, as he's a 1st year OC, but he's been terrible thus far. The question is has he been terrible due to 'growing pains' or is he always going to be this terrible? Regardless, he's got to get something figured out soon or he's out of a job at the end of the season.
Can Butch improve? This actually might be an even bigger question. Butch does a lot of things incredibly well, but he also does a lot of important things poorly. He's not Dooley, but he may not be Dabo Swinney either. Right now, he's looking a bit like Ron Zook, unfortunately.
The case for Butch. From Year 3 onward, Butch is 21-9. He has not made us elite, but he's dug us out of the mess Dooley left and made us competitive again. He's an excellent recruiter and knows how to run an organization. His players have generally played hard for him (UMass game aside). He has a lot in common with Dabo Swinney, who also struggled during his first 4 seasons before "figuring it out." Feels like he could be a Dabo Swinney / Phil Fulmer type of coach that could win big if he'd just surround himself with the right people.
The case against Butch. 5 years in and we still see terrible game management. Butch doesn't seem to get "football strategy" very well. From Year 3 onward, he's 9-8 in SEC play, which seems disappointing given the talent he's had. His hiring of Scott looks very questionable now; whereas Dabo Swinney went out and found Chad Morris and Brent Venables around the same timeframe for his tenure at Clemson. Butch may simply be another Ron Zook; a guy who can be an elite recruiter, but who struggles on the field against better coaching.
Inability to Adapt. This is starting to become my biggest issue with our coaching staff. They don't seem to adapt well. They seem wedded to "the scheme" rather than building a scheme that suits the players we have on the roster.
2017 can't be like 2013. In 2013 and 2014, it made sense why our offense struggled given a lack of skill players and lack of depth at various positions. In 2017, we look very good from a talent perspective, but we're still playing like that 2013 team.
I'll reserve judgement for now. Admittedly, I'm pretty pessimistic about Butch's survival at this point, but I'm still holding off on judgement till we see how this team does against Georgia, South Carolina, and Bama at the very least. It's a long season and you never know.
Go Vols! Doesn't matter how I feel about the coaching, I'm still rooting for the Vols 100% against this week!
GBO!
The UMass Game
UMass was a bad team. There have been numerous times when VN has underestimated teams outside the Power 5 conferences (or even in the P5 like GT). This is not one of those times. Last season, many on VN underestimated a good App State team. UMass, on the other hand, is one of the worst teams in FBS. It was rated #164 in the Sagarin ratings. As a reminder, there are only 128 teams in I-A (FBS), which means that UMass was rated below several I-AA teams. It was the 5th worst team in FBS; not that much better than Indiana State. All the crap about "playing close games" (are 10 point losses really "close games"?) was ridiculous --- they're "playing close games" against other bad teams.
Bob Shoop's Defense is Good, not Great. I still don't for the life of me understand why the defense is getting most of the flak right now. Defense essentially gave up about 13 points last week against Florida (once you account for turnovers and bad field position). Once again, defense mostly did its job, giving up 13 to a UMass team that has averaged about 21 points. Not an elite performance by any means, but 7 sacks, and they got the stops when they needed them. You can complain that we're still giving up too many yards per play and too many big plays, but overall, it's been a "bend, don't break" defense that has been good enough to win. I'd give Shoop a "B" on the season thus far.
Larry Scott is terrible. This is the 2nd game in a row where Larry Scott deserved an "F" grade. UMass's opponents were averaging about 30 points per game and their strength of schedule was incredibly weak. We should've put up 40+ on these guys with 2nd stringers. 17 points is just pathetic. If we can't put up more than 17 against Georgia, we're doomed.
Quinten Dormady looked good at times. Still inconsistent, but he hit a rhythm right about the time that Butch Jones decided it was time for a QB change. Butch's game management is still beyond bizarre. I thought there was a good case for JG against Florida when QD was struggling. It was difficult to see a reason to yank QD in a close game when he was suddenly starting to hit a groove.
I was wrong. Last week, I said I thought the coaches should be considering JG for the "higher upside", but I have to admit, he just doesn't look like he's ready.
Brandon Johnson. At least he emerged this game. Though, he was about the only receiver that did much.
John Kelly is Elite. Even with UMass basically focusing their entire defense on stopping JK, he still racked up 100+ yards.
One-Man Offense Doesn't Work. JK may be elite, but it's becoming obvious that defenses are just going to focus all their efforts on stopping him and ignoring everything else at this point.
Big Picture
Butch isn't done yet. It looks bad after the past two weeks, but there's still a lot of season left to go. But he's definitely on the "hot seat" at this point, regardless of what anyone in the AD says.
Larry Scott is the key. Hate to say it, but Butch's survival likely depends on Larry Scott figuring out the offense REAL quick.
Can Scott improve? You can forgive Scott a bit, as he's a 1st year OC, but he's been terrible thus far. The question is has he been terrible due to 'growing pains' or is he always going to be this terrible? Regardless, he's got to get something figured out soon or he's out of a job at the end of the season.
Can Butch improve? This actually might be an even bigger question. Butch does a lot of things incredibly well, but he also does a lot of important things poorly. He's not Dooley, but he may not be Dabo Swinney either. Right now, he's looking a bit like Ron Zook, unfortunately.
The case for Butch. From Year 3 onward, Butch is 21-9. He has not made us elite, but he's dug us out of the mess Dooley left and made us competitive again. He's an excellent recruiter and knows how to run an organization. His players have generally played hard for him (UMass game aside). He has a lot in common with Dabo Swinney, who also struggled during his first 4 seasons before "figuring it out." Feels like he could be a Dabo Swinney / Phil Fulmer type of coach that could win big if he'd just surround himself with the right people.
The case against Butch. 5 years in and we still see terrible game management. Butch doesn't seem to get "football strategy" very well. From Year 3 onward, he's 9-8 in SEC play, which seems disappointing given the talent he's had. His hiring of Scott looks very questionable now; whereas Dabo Swinney went out and found Chad Morris and Brent Venables around the same timeframe for his tenure at Clemson. Butch may simply be another Ron Zook; a guy who can be an elite recruiter, but who struggles on the field against better coaching.
Inability to Adapt. This is starting to become my biggest issue with our coaching staff. They don't seem to adapt well. They seem wedded to "the scheme" rather than building a scheme that suits the players we have on the roster.
2017 can't be like 2013. In 2013 and 2014, it made sense why our offense struggled given a lack of skill players and lack of depth at various positions. In 2017, we look very good from a talent perspective, but we're still playing like that 2013 team.
I'll reserve judgement for now. Admittedly, I'm pretty pessimistic about Butch's survival at this point, but I'm still holding off on judgement till we see how this team does against Georgia, South Carolina, and Bama at the very least. It's a long season and you never know.
Go Vols! Doesn't matter how I feel about the coaching, I'm still rooting for the Vols 100% against this week!
GBO!
