NCAA Regional Projections 2014

#2
#2
I think we need to take at least 5 and better yet 6 of the last 12 SEC games to be sure to be in the SEC tourney. I think if we can get in the SEC tourney and can win 1 game, we will make a regional. They need the pitchers to be on top of their game. Go Vols.
 
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#3
#3
We still have the 8th best RPI in the SEC.

It can't go down much since we play so many teams with high RPI's the rest of the way unless we drop a couple of our remaining home midweek games against weak RPI teams.

I agree with TVOL71. One win at Hoover should put us in.
 
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#4
#4
Not winning the series' against Auburn and UGA could come back to haunt us. When you look at our remaining games versus the others, it's clear we will have a steep hill to climb.

This weeks coaches poll SEC TEAM RANKS

#6 LSU
#8 USC
#12 UF
#13 Ole Miss
#14 Vandy
#18 Alabama
#22 MSU
#23 UK
#30 Arky
#36 Tennessee

Remaining Schedules SEC Bottom Half - Green=Probable series win, Red= probable series loss, Black= toss up...example, Arky will probably win the series versus Auburn, etc...


Arkansas (9-9) RPI 48

Auburn
@Ole Miss
TAMU
@Mizzou


Vanderbilt (8-10) RPI 14

UGA
@ Missouri
@ UF
SC

TAMU (8-10) RPI 53

@MSU
LSU
@ Arky
Ole Miss

Georgia (7-10-1) RPI 54

@Vanderbilt
USC
@Ole Miss
UK

Tennessee (7-11) RPI 31

@LSU
UK
@MSU
UF

Auburn (7-11) RPI 57

@Arky
MSU
@UK
LSU

Missouri (6-12) RPI 108

@UF
Vandy
@USC
Arky

Some thoughts:

* The way Vandy has been playing, nothing is for sure. If someone wanted to argue UF or SC games for losses rather than toss ups, I could see it.

* Arkansas has the easiest remaining schedule, only Ole Miss is ranked.

* Mizzou has the toughest remaining schedule having to go to UF and USC, every team is ranked. Though I could argue WE might have just as rough a schedule going to LSU and MSU.

*UK has lost every road series except for TAMU, they are 7-7 Away. They've won every home series except for an inexplicable Mizzou loss.

* I might be giving TAMU too much credit, to be honest, I haven't seen them play this year. They have a pretty tough road too.

* The battle for the last spot looks to be (AT THIS MOMENT) between, UT, UGA and Auburn. Because we lost both of those series, we now have to finish a game better than one of them.

What ya'll think?
 
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#7
#7
vol66 said:
I wonder if there's ever been an SEC team make the NCAA after not going to Hoover? I doubt the RPI would save us.
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I'm pretty sure its been done. I cant remember when, but i want to say somewhere in the 2000-2007 range somebody did it. Whoever it was, I think they were the 7th or 8th team in due to a Hoover team finishing below .500 overall and being ineligible for postseason.
 
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#8
#8
BigOrange51 said:
I'm pretty sure its been done. I cant remember when, but i want to say somewhere in the 2000-2007 range somebody did it. Whoever it was, I think they were the 7th or 8th team in due to a Hoover team finishing below .500 overall and being ineligible for postseason.
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It was Miss. St. in 2006. LSU didn't make themselves ineligible, but I suppose MSU had a better overall resume. It may have happened other times as well.
 
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#9
#9
BigOrange51 said:
I'm pretty sure its been done. I cant remember when, but i want to say somewhere in the 2000-2007 range somebody did it. Whoever it was, I think they were the 7th or 8th team in due to a Hoover team finishing below .500 overall and being ineligible for postseason.
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You guys were right, a little research shows, but that time frame was when only 8 teams made the tournament. This year of course there will be 12 teams, so even some teams that make the tourney will not make the NCAA. Last year nine SEC teams made it.
 
#10
#10
Quetstion for you veteran college baseball watchers:

How in the world can these rankings accurately factor in the strength of one conference v. another, when the majority of season is in-conference, and the few conference-to conference results they have to go by generally come very early in the season?

Having 8 of 14 SEC teams in the top 25 is great, but the best of those, LSU, is only 6th? Doesn't that ultimately come down to the parity in the SEC, and not necessarily accurately reflect the relative strength of the SEC?
 
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#11
#11
BaseVol said:
Quetstion for you veteran college baseball watchers:

How in the world can these rankings accurately factor in the strength of one conference v. another, when the majority of season is in-conference, and the few conference-to conference results they have to go by generally come very early in the season?

Having 8 of 14 SEC teams in the top 25 is great, but the best of those, LSU, is only 6th? Doesn't that ultimately come down to the parity in the SEC, and not necessarily accurately reflect the relative strength of the SEC?
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I'll let Frye and Showme have at it on this one.

1. This is just one of the polls.

2. The SEC's non conference winning percentage this year is .7508, the best of any other conference.

3. Recent history. When a team like LSU or Vandy gets ranked in the preseason they have to do a lot of losing to fall out of it. It's flawed.
 
#12
#12
vol66 said:
You guys were right, a little research shows, but that time frame was when only 8 teams made the tournament. This year of course there will be 12 teams, so even some teams that make the tourney will not make the NCAA. Last year nine SEC teams made it.
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Yep, you're right. But, if somehow we miss Hoover by a game and keep our RPI in the 30's, I can guarantee we will still hold practice until selection day. Kendall Rogers had 11 SEC teams in last week. That would be totally unprecedented, but I feel comfortable that there will be at least 9 SEC teams in regionals, possibly 10.

It's definitely hard to fathom the 13th place team in any league making it into the tournament, but its theoretically possible. At the same time, I don't know if a team with an RPI in the 30's has ever missed regionals. Aaron Fitt just wrote an article discussing how flawed the RPI is. RPI Analysis Requires A Closer Look - BaseballAmerica.com
 
#13
#13
BigOrange51 said:
Yep, you're right. But, if somehow we miss Hoover by a game and keep our RPI in the 30's, I can guarantee we will still hold practice until selection day. Kendall Rogers had 11 SEC teams in last week. That would be totally unprecedented, but I feel comfortable that there will be at least 9 SEC teams in regionals, possibly 10.

It's definitely hard to fathom the 13th place team in any league making it into the tournament, but its theoretically possible. At the same time, I don't know if a team with an RPI in the 30's has ever missed regionals. Aaron Fitt just wrote an article discussing how flawed the RPI is. RPI Analysis Requires A Closer Look - BaseballAmerica.com
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Hey 51, thanks for posting the article, I'll definitely check that out.

Last week our RPI was 18. Losing 2 out of 3 to Bama, then the ETSU loss put us at 31. If we get swept versus LSU or don't do any better than just 1 game per series from here on out, our RPI won't remain in the 30's. We'll be at like 11 or 12 SEC wins...we're going to have to make Hoover and as others posted, we might have to win a game or two, depending on how we finish.

I hope we somehow just get hot down the stretch at the plate and play defense like we did at the beginning. these guys are capable of playing much better than they have lately. Our pitching is going to be up and down, we know that, we have to hit, execute on offense, and play superb defense like we did at UNLV, ASU and Vandy.
 
#14
#14
Projected Field of 64: April 23 | Perfect Game USA

This is PG's updated NCAA Regional Projection (as of yesterday)...They have us as a 3 playing projected #2 seed Big South Champion Liberty 32-10 (16-1).

10 SEC teams make it in with, TAMU, Auburn and UGA on the "bubble"...

Meanwhile, San Diego State and North Carolina were the final two teams in the field of 64, with some other teams to watch including West Virginia, Illinois State, High Point, Texas A&M, Auburn, Kansas, Georgia, Southern Miss, UC Irvine, East Carolina and Sam Houston State, among others.
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#15
#15
Stock Report: Week 10 - BaseballAmerica.com

Real good read on all the hosts, secure teams, and reasons for who's in and who's out.

Tennessee has lost four of its last five series, and its remaining schedule is challenging: at LSU, vs. Kentucky, at Mississippi State, vs. Florida. The Vols do own three quality series wins (vs. Vanderbilt, at Arizona State, and a sweep vs. UNLV), and they entered this week ranked No. 26 in the RPI. We like their talent and their resume, but it’s easy to envision them falling back down the stretch against that schedule. For now, we’ll stand by them.
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#17
#17
Stock Report: Week 11 - BaseballAmerica.com


Southeastern Conference (10 bids)
SAFELY IN: Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Texas A&M, Arkansas
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Auburn, Tennessee
One change from last week: Texas A&M replaces Tennessee in our field of 64.

The Aggies vaulted from No. 64 to No. 38 in the RPI after taking two of three at Mississippi State. Texas A&M has two quality road series wins in the last three weeks (at Vandy was the other), and a home series win against Florida in March is a huge boost. The Aggies are up to 10-11 in the SEC, and their remaining schedule is challenging, but at least two of their final three series are at home (vs. LSU this weekend, vs. Ole Miss in Week 14). In between, they travel to Arkansas. Every series is huge, and this picture can change quickly, but Texas A&M’s three marquee series wins are enough for us right now.

Dave Van Horn
Dave Van Horn (Photo by John Williamson)

Likewise, Arkansas hangs on to its at-large spot on the strength of three marquee series wins, against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Alabama—all at home. A home series loss to Auburn this weekend was a setback, and now the Hogs must travel to Ole Miss, but the final two weeks are more favorable (vs. Texas A&M, at Missouri). They’ll need to win five of their last nine to climb into the top 45, and we think they can do it. That would also get them up to 15-15 in the SEC, which should be enough for an at-large spot.

Auburn certainly helped its chances by taking two of three at Arkansas, but the Tigers had lost their previous four series, and they remain just 9-12 in the league. And we don’t love their chances to finish strong against a tough schedule (vs. Mississippi State, at Kentucky, vs. LSU).

Tennessee is in even worse shape in the league at 8-13, which undermines its strong RPI (No. 28). Like Auburn, the Volunteers have three tough series ahead, with two of them coming at home (vs. Kentucky, at MSU, vs. Florida). Tennessee now has too much work to do in the standings, and the road ahead looks too challenging.
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#20
#20
I listened to Chris Burke on the radio today, he'll be here tonight working the game for ESPN. He said he thinks the magic number of wins is 13 to make the NCAA Tourney. That would be 5 out of 9...a sweep of UK and avoiding getting swept at MSU and by UF or some other combination.
 
#23
#23
As of today, Miami would be the outright acc regular season champion.

They are hosting a regional
 
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