Barring injury, someone explain to me why 7 wins this season is unrealistic

#1

KnoxRealtorVOL

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#1
I really don't know how our expectation got so low that we expect to lose extremely winnable games. I really think at this point the fanbase is just discouraged, and still in meltdown mode after our last few losses.

The competition is about to drop of DRAMATICALLY after the Bama game. Vandy had it's only good game of the season against South Carolina, Mizzou has been shut out by a team we should have beaten, and they lost to Indiana, KY got a reality check from a bad LSU team.

Our last 4 opponents combined record:
21-6 (not counting UTC)

Our next 4 after Bama:
16-12

Call me what you will but I still have expectations for this coaching staff. Our defense is light years better than the defense of any of that last 4 teams we play. I think it's fair to be disappointed with not winning 7 games, and extremely disappointed with not winning 6.

So seriously, why is everyone so sure we won't win our last 4, when 2 are in Neyland and 1 is against Vandy. Our offense will finally have breathing room to start making plays again, which will rest our defense. These things are a good formula for us to win.
 
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#5
#5
I really don't know how our expectation got so low that we expect to lose extremely winnable games. I really think at this point the fanbase is just discouraged, and still in meltdown mode after our last few losses.

The competition is about to drop of DRAMATICALLY after the Bama game. Vandy had it's only good game of the season against South Carolina, Mizzou has been shut out by a team we should have beaten, and they lost to Indiana, KY got a reality check from a bad LSU team.

Our last 4 opponents combined record:
21-6 (not counting UTC)

Our next 4 after Bama:
16-12

Call me what you will but I still have expectations for this coaching staff. Our defense is light years better than the defense of any of that last 4 teams we play. I think it's fair to be disappointed with not winning 7 games, and extremely disappointed with not winning 6.

So seriously, why is everyone so sure we won't win our last 4, when 2 are in Neyland and 1 is against Vandy. Our offense will finally have breathing room to start making plays again, which will rest our defense. These things are a good formula for us to win.

We should win after Bama based on our recruiting averages. But i believe we are under performing due to lack of depth, inexperience, and a reshuffled line. Vandy is the only game I'm confident in.
 
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#6
#6
I really don't know how our expectation got so low that we expect to lose extremely winnable games. I really think at this point the fanbase is just discouraged, and still in meltdown mode after our last few losses.

The competition is about to drop of DRAMATICALLY after the Bama game. Vandy had it's only good game of the season against South Carolina, Mizzou has been shut out by a team we should have beaten, and they lost to Indiana, KY got a reality check from a bad LSU team.

Our last 4 opponents combined record:
21-6 (not counting UTC)

Our next 4 after Bama:
16-12

Call me what you will but I still have expectations for this coaching staff. Our defense is light years better than the defense of any of that last 4 teams we play. I think it's fair to be disappointed with not winning 7 games, and extremely disappointed with not winning 6.

So seriously, why is everyone so sure we won't win our last 4, when 2 are in Neyland and 1 is against Vandy. Our offense will finally have breathing room to start making plays again, which will rest our defense. These things are a good formula for us to win.

because we are going backwards and the coaching staff sucks. no matter what process jones is talking about.
 
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#10
#10
As others have said, our inept and regressing OL will be the reason we don't go bowling this year.
 
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#11
#11
I don't think it is unrealistic. May not happen and given recent outcomes probably won't but entirely doable. I'm still onboard either way.
 
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#12
#12
Any team with even half a defense will be able to shut our offense down easily.
If Worley keeps taking a beating, he will get injured.
I knew before the season that it would be rough, so we are right where I expected us to be. We should beat Vandy, but other than that, the best we have is a toss up.
 
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#13
#13
I really don't know how our expectation got so low that we expect to lose extremely winnable games. I really think at this point the fanbase is just discouraged, and still in meltdown mode after our last few losses.

The competition is about to drop of DRAMATICALLY after the Bama game. Vandy had it's only good game of the season against South Carolina, Mizzou has been shut out by a team we should have beaten, and they lost to Indiana, KY got a reality check from a bad LSU team.

Our last 4 opponents combined record:
21-6 (not counting UTC)

Our next 4 after Bama:
16-12

Call me what you will but I still have expectations for this coaching staff. Our defense is light years better than the defense of any of that last 4 teams we play. I think it's fair to be disappointed with not winning 7 games, and extremely disappointed with not winning 6.

So seriously, why is everyone so sure we won't win our last 4, when 2 are in Neyland and 1 is against Vandy. Our offense will finally have breathing room to start making plays again, which will rest our defense. These things are a good formula for us to win.


I do not get it either this team still has a shot at 8 wins and our best record since 2007. Let the season play out and see what happens then form a opinion of the job Jones and staff have done.

If he some how gets to 8 wins this year there will be plenty of crow to be eaten.
 
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#16
#16
I really don't know how our expectation got so low that we expect to lose extremely winnable games. I really think at this point the fanbase is just discouraged, and still in meltdown mode after our last few losses.

The competition is about to drop of DRAMATICALLY after the Bama game. Vandy had it's only good game of the season against South Carolina, Mizzou has been shut out by a team we should have beaten, and they lost to Indiana, KY got a reality check from a bad LSU team.

Our last 4 opponents combined record:
21-6 (not counting UTC)

Our next 4 after Bama:
16-12

Call me what you will but I still have expectations for this coaching staff. Our defense is light years better than the defense of any of that last 4 teams we play. I think it's fair to be disappointed with not winning 7 games, and extremely disappointed with not winning 6.

So seriously, why is everyone so sure we won't win our last 4, when 2 are in Neyland and 1 is against Vandy. Our offense will finally have breathing room to start making plays again, which will rest our defense. These things are a good formula for us to win.

Our win loss record explains a lot.
 
#17
#17
I'll explain.

To get to 7-5 we'd have to win the last 4 games. ESPN's football power index places our chances in these games at:

SC = 37.8%
KY = 66.8%
MO = 57.9%
VN = 82.8%

So, 4 in a row probability = product of the likelihood of winning those 4 games, OR:

12.1 percent chance of 7-5.

For kicks, let's say ESPN's FPI is underestimating us by 10% percent in each game, so:

SC = 41.6
KY = 73.5
MO = 63.7
VN = 91.1

That would leave us with a 17.7% chance of 7-5.

So even with the orange shades on the chances are quite low that we win those 4 games.

If someone bet on that proposition at even odds, I would have no trouble saying they had made an unrealistic wager.
 
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#18
#18
We should win after Bama based on our recruiting averages. But i believe we are under performing due to lack of depth, inexperience, and a reshuffled line. Vandy is the only game I'm confident in.
Assuming that we're eliminated from bowl eligibility by the last game of the season do our guys have the mental toughness to beat Vandy? I assure you that Vandy will treat this like their bowl game and beating UT would make their season.
 
#19
#19
On the surface I would agree with you, but then I think about our abysmal OLine. That is where all games are won or lost, and we don't have one offensive lineman starting that would start for another team in the SEC, Vandy included. We may be starting a 5th-yr SR with a torn ACL at OT. That's just where we are, and given that, there is just no way we can go into any of our remaining games assured that we should win.

As shame really, because a pretty special defensive effort (all things considered) is being wasted on poor OLine play and inferior decision-making skills at QB. John Jancek, Steve Stripling, Tommy Thigpen and Willie Martinez have done their job.
 
#20
#20
There's not a team left on the schedule we can beat without a lot of luck. Including vandy. Injuries are bound to pile up for our playmakers. I am beside myself that Worley, Hurd, and lane are not already on the bench with season ending injuries. By the time we get to vandy and Kentucky we're not going to have those guys. The O-line is getting worse by the minute.
 
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#21
#21
Any team with even half a defense will be able to shut our offense down easily.
If Worley keeps taking a beating, he will get injured.
I knew before the season that it would be rough, so we are right where I expected us to be. We should beat Vandy, but other than that, the best we have is a toss up.

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying we have 4 automatic wins. I'm saying the talent gap in our last 4 games is extremely narrow if not even. I don't think that makes predicting losses justifiable.
 
#22
#22
Don't get me wrong I'm not saying we have 4 automatic wins. I'm saying the talent gap in our last 4 games is extremely narrow if not even. I don't think that makes predicting losses justifiable.

That's not true at OLine, and that's where it begins.
 
#23
#23
Assuming that we're eliminated from bowl eligibility by the last game of the season do our guys have the mental toughness to beat Vandy? I assure you that Vandy will treat this like their bowl game and beating UT would make their season.

Only the players know that for certain. But i beleive they do posses that mental toughness.
 
#25
#25
I think Misery, Kentucky, USCe are all toss ups. I was thinking, Vandy we can beat...but I didn't consider the mental letdown aspect when we are eliminated from bowl eligibility...crap.
 

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