2017 Class Mid-Summer Over/Underrated

#1

junder13

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#1
Most of us enjoy playing couch coach/recruiting coordinator (I always have) and so here’s a thread where that is actually intended. Get excited, D4H.

I am curious to know who everyone thinks is underrated/overrated based on the current end-of-June 247 composite ranking. Since ratings will change before NSD, we can look back and see who has an eye for talent (or just lucky). A better mindset, though, would be basing this not on how you think rankings will end but on who you think is over/under rated relative to the college production they'll have. Try not to be tempted to rate someone based on who they may be currently committed to (like me rating a FL RB partly bc he's a Ark commit and will likely produce as a RB for the pig sooies -- I broke my own rule there).

Here’s how we’ll do this:
Let’s have three separate lists: (1) Current commits, (2) prospects that have visited or publicly have stated they intend to visit, and (3) recruits who have shown no interest in UT, no longer have interest, or are completely unrealistic at this juncture. There is no set number of players to list. You can substantiate your list with specific thoughts on players or simply just list the players.

And….here……..we......go!

Current Commits
Underrated – there’s a lot in our current class to choose from
1) Theo Jackson (#521)
2) LaTrell Bumphus (#440)
3) Kivon Bennett (#453)
4) Chase Rogers (#850)
5) Solon Page (#910)
Overrated
*Seeing as how most of our recruits are not highly rated at this time, it’s hard to have any current commits “overrated”, unless you view Maleik Gray or Eric Crosby as overrated, which I do not.

Prospects
Underrated
1) WV S Derrek Pitts (#437)
2) FL APB Darrian Felix (#600)
3) LA OT Adrian Ealy (#249)
4) WV OT Riley Locklear (#653)
5) TN RB Ty Chandler (#111)
6) GA CB Yusuf Corker (#315)
7) WV OG Billy Ross (#360)
8) TX OT Chuck Filiaga (#93)
9) AL DE LaBryan Ray (#102)
10) TN OT Obinna Eze (#212)
11) AL LB Kenny Britt (#313)
12) GA WR Justin Marshall (#399)
13) TN OT Trey Smith (#48)
14) NC LB Hamsah Nasirildeen (#136)
15) TN CB TJ Carter (#467)
16) CA QB Jack Sears (#205)
17) VA DE/DT Elijah Conliffe (#443)
18) NC LB Justin Foster (#79)
*not sure how underrated TN WRs Javonta Payton (#371) and Zack Dobson (#760) are currently, but I hope they both are if we're hotly pursuing them
Overrated
1) GA OT Tony Gray (#127)
2) GA DE Malik Herring (#99)
3) CO LB Santino Marchiol (#269)
4) GA DE Michael Allen (#436)
5) NC OT TJ Moore (#226)
6) VA DT Breyon Gaddy (#275)

Never or No Longer Interested or Unrealistic
Underrated
1) TX OT Walker Little (#57)
2) FL WR Michael Harley (#392) – WVU commit
3) OH CB Amir Riep (#115) - likely OSU
4) TX WR Omar Manning (#158)
5) OH TE Matt Dotson (#291)
6) MO OG Marquis Hayes (#362) - likely Mizzu
7) PA OT Joshua Lugg (#191) – ND commit
8) LA WR Devonta Smith (#65)
9) NC DE Jake Lawler (#148) – UNC commit
10) FL LB VanDarius Cowan (#84) – Bama commit
11) TX OT Grayson Reed (#206) – A&M commit
12) FL QB Mac Jones (#280) – Bama commit
13) FL OT Blake Vinson (#493) – Clemson commit
14) CT WR Tarik Black (#123)
15) CA WR Tyjon Lindsey (#28)
16) AL WR Noah Igbinoghene (#327)
17) FL OG Navaughn Donaldson (#98) – Miami commit
18) CAN RB Chuba Hubbard (#322)
19) OH DE James Hudson (#335) – UK decommit lol
20) FL WR Jordan Pouncey (#669) – ND commit
21) CA CB Elijah Blades (#222) – UF commit
22) TN APB Chase Hayden (#428)
23) FL RB Maleek Williams (#874) – Ark commit
24) TN S Kaleb Oliver (#586) – MSU commit
25) FL CB Trajan Bandy (#235) – OU commit
Overrated
1) FL WR James Robinson (#39) - Clemson lean
2) GA LB Jaden Hunter (#128) - UGA commit
3) FL ATH Bruce Judson (#284)
4) TN WR Amari Rodgers (#133) - Clemson commit
5) GA DE Robert Beal (#30)
6) TX WR KD Nixon (#290)
7) FL OG Tedarrell Sltaon (#35)
8) GA S Richard LeCounte (#37) - UGA commit
9) FL DE Jarez Parks (#45)
10) FL LB Tyler Dunning (#324) - MSU commit
11) CA DE Jaelan Phillips (#7) - UCLA commit
12) GA DE/DT Aaron Sterling (#383) - Bama commit


Discussion
Commits
Underrated – Marquez Bembry (#626) will be a popular choice in the top 5 and I almost put him at #5 but I started thinking about how under-utilized Chris Weatherd was while here, and I view this guy as a HS version of him.
Overrated – A couple days ago, I would have had KD Nixon at #1 (I stated my disapproval in his thread before his decommitment). I do not view any of our current commits as overrated, although that does not mean much bc most are rated middle-of-the-pack or worse.

*Honestly, I have not watched film on several of our Orange Carpet Day commits, so I am probably not the best source for an opinion on the current class. Nevertheless, here are the ones I like at this time (in order based a combination of position need + perceived ability):
Kivon Bennett (#453), Maleik Gray (#59), Eric Crosby (#193), Cheyenne Labruzza (#439), Theo Jackson (#521), LaTrell Bumphus (#440), Jaquan Henderson (#400), Chase Rogers (#850), Princeton Fant (#526), Solon Page (#910), and Brent Cimaglia (#n/a).
Bennett is ahead of Jackson and Bumphus because he’s in a position of greater need and will almost certainly have an opportunity to have a more immediate impact. But I view Jackson and Bumphus as more underrated.
Here are the ones I am suspicious are not likely to be a factor on our roster (in order):
Mo Burnam (#912), Tre Lawson (#540), Jacquez Jones (#836), Trey Coleman (#902), Marquez Bembry (#626)

Note: I would change my view on Lawson if it was known he was expected to grow into a DT. Same for Bembry, if it was known he bulk up to WDE, I would be more excited about him. As it stands, he’s thought to be a lean LB who may come off the edge as a rusher. Problem is, we have two other commits that fit that mold right now (Solon Page, Jaquan Henderson) and several prospects (Gibbs, Pitts).

Lastly, if there's any real interest, I can share my thoughts on my other over/under rankings. Most VN posters complain about the length of my posts, so I'll not do that in this original post. I'm sure this thread is destined for "TL;DR" as it is.

Let's see who yall think are underrated/overrated, since you seem to think the entire 2017 UT commitment list is grossly underrated, ha.
 
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#2
#2
Let me add, that by having (as an example) R. Locklear above Obinna Eze and T. Smith, I am not saying that I expect he'll be a better player. It's that I think he is more underrated at #653 in the composite than Eze at #212 and Smith at #48. I think they're all underrated, though, which is why they're all included on my list. As an aside, I have quite a few OL on my underrated list. It's ridiculous how much OL talent there is in this year's class IMO.
 
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#3
#3
Trey Coleman, Henderson, Fant, Bumphus, Bembry and Jackson are all underrated.

Ty Chandler is vastly underrated in my mind.

I believe that Bama's RB committ Harris is very overrated. I believe that he's only the number one because he's committed to Bama.
 
#4
#4
I only follow TN recruits and even then I don't get into breaking down film so I am just taking a stab at it. going off of 247 rankings. and yes there is definitely a good bit of homer in my stats.

Gray #59, too high I would have him around the high 80s low 90s, flame away
Crosby #193, about right
Henderson #400, a little low, I see him as a low 4
Labruzza #439, just right
Bumphus #440 at WDE, I think is low, I am one of the few people who like him better at DE than TE but jmo, if he was listed at TE I would say this is correct
Bennet #453, really low I see him as good as Crosby, maybe better lets call it a wash
Jackson #521, low, he should be a borderline 4 star, and it would help, imo, if he choose a position. listed at Safety but talk of corner
Fant #526, criminally low, top 150 WR, I will qualify this with a "I need to see how he plays after the injury"
Lawson #540, about right, a little low maybe
Bembry #626, also criminally low. track star speed with a 6-2 210 body is scary. put on 30 pounds give him to Strippling and watch him blow some people up
Tucker #687, about right
Jones #836 a little low but not by much
Chase Rogers #850, criminally low. puts up insane stats in a pass happy offense but does the dirty work. I see him as a perfect replacement for Wolf, not flashy but all around good TE. low 4 star
Coleman #902, way too low, should be a high 3 at the least
Burnam #912, eh a little high, something doesn't jive with me on him. film looks ok, but then he blows up and wins a camp MVP LB award while putting up terrible sparq numbers. i can't figure him out
Cimaglia unranked, eh hes a kicker. ranked at #6 at his position I will take it.
 
#6
#6
It is fun to look at these things. In my mind, DK jr was a 5 star all the way and I think he'll live up to that. I'm still shocked that JG wasn't a 5 star although it was probably bc of his injury. When we have he best QB in the country during his tenure we'll know they were wrong about a 4 star rating for him as well. Chance Hall at 3 star was clearly wrong. He held his own against Bama as a true freshman. He dominated at GA. No way he was a three star. Wonder who else we'll be saying that about in a couple years
 
#8
#8
I only follow TN recruits and even then I don't get into breaking down film so I am just taking a stab at it. going off of 247 rankings. and yes there is definitely a good bit of homer in my stats.

Gray #59, too high I would have him around the high 80s low 90s, flame away
Crosby #193, about right
Henderson #400, a little low, I see him as a low 4
Labruzza #439, just right
Bumphus #440 at WDE, I think is low, I am one of the few people who like him better at DE than TE but jmo, if he was listed at TE I would say this is correct
Bennet #453, really low I see him as good as Crosby, maybe better lets call it a wash
Jackson #521, low, he should be a borderline 4 star, and it would help, imo, if he choose a position. listed at Safety but talk of corner
Fant #526, criminally low, top 150 WR, I will qualify this with a "I need to see how he plays after the injury"
Lawson #540, about right, a little low maybe
Bembry #626, also criminally low. track star speed with a 6-2 210 body is scary. put on 30 pounds give him to Strippling and watch him blow some people up
Tucker #687, about right
Jones #836 a little low but not by much
Chase Rogers #850, criminally low. puts up insane stats in a pass happy offense but does the dirty work. I see him as a perfect replacement for Wolf, not flashy but all around good TE. low 4 star
Coleman #902, way too low, should be a high 3 at the least
Burnam #912, eh a little high, something doesn't jive with me on him. film looks ok, but then he blows up and wins a camp MVP LB award while putting up terrible sparq numbers. i can't figure him out
Cimaglia unranked, eh hes a kicker. ranked at #6 at his position I will take it.


This guy. Good stuff, man. I agree 100%.
 
#9
#9
Haven't watched a lot of tape, but I think Cam Akers is overrated and Ty Chandler, Kivon Bennett, and Chase Benett is underrated.

Probably will get slammed for this, but I think Higgins is a bit overrated. Still a very good player though, but is more like a high 4 star to me.
 
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#10
#10
I could list a lot for each list but I'll keep it small. Bembry, Fant, Amari Rodgers and Holloman underrated. Najee Harris, Tate Martell, Hunter Johnson overrated. Martell and Harris will have good college careers bcuz of the team they chose tho. Johnson will be good but not 5* good. Rodgers, Holloman and Fant are top WR's in the country. Bembry is a track star, if he bulks up a little he can be taylor 2.0
 
#11
#11
Haven't watched a lot of tape, but I think Cam Akers is overrated and Ty Chandler, Kivon Bennett, and Chase Benett is underrated.

Probably will get slammed for this, but I think Higgins is a bit overrated. Still a very good player though, but is more like a high 4 star to me.

I have not seen anything which makes me think Akers is overrated. He has great size, speed, hands, and can cut on a dime. I have not seen any tape on his backing ability, but I really want him playing @ Tennessee.
 
#13
#13
I have not seen anything which makes me think Akers is overrated. He has great size, speed, hands, and can cut on a dime. I have not seen any tape on his backing ability, but I really want him playing @ Tennessee.

Akers is overrated because he's not a Vol lean.
 
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#14
#14
I have not seen anything which makes me think Akers is overrated. He has great size, speed, hands, and can cut on a dime. I have not seen any tape on his backing ability, but I really want him playing @ Tennessee.

He is overrated because D4H thinks so. Thats all that matters.
 
#15
#15
Mo Burnham gets cut to free up a scholarship, his film is very unimpressive IMO. I'm not the expert. But Butch is the expert so if he wants Mo I'll trust him. Maybe he'll blow up
 
#16
#16
I could list a lot for each list but I'll keep it small. Bembry, Fant, Amari Rodgers and Holloman underrated. Najee Harris, Tate Martell, Hunter Johnson overrated. Martell and Harris will have good college careers bcuz of the team they chose tho. Johnson will be good but not 5* good. Rodgers, Holloman and Fant are top WR's in the country. Bembry is a track star, if he bulks up a little he can be taylor 2.0

I'll better Hunter Johnson doesn't even finish his career at Clemson. Their offense thrives on a dual threat qb much like ours does. He is anything but a dual threat.
 
#17
#17
I'll better Hunter Johnson doesn't even finish his career at Clemson. Their offense thrives on a dual threat qb much like ours does. He is anything but a dual threat.

Clemsons passing game is very strong. Dabo may be confident that his staff can adjust the offense to accommodate a more pro style QB. Especially if he's got #1 rated type 5* WRs lined up on the outside. Some coaching staffs have been successfull in moves like this.
 
#18
#18
Most of us enjoy playing couch coach/recruiting coordinator and so here’s a thread where that is actually intended.

Current Commits
Underrated – there’s a lot in our current class to choose from
1) Theo Jackson (#521)
2) LaTrell Bumphus (#440)
3) Kivon Bennett (#453)
4) Chase Rogers (#850)
5) Solon Page (#910)
Overrated
*Seeing as how most of our recruits are not highly rated at this time, it’s hard to have any current commits “overrated”, unless you view Maleik Gray or Eric Crosby as overrated, which I do not.

Prospects
Underrated
1) WV S Derrek Pitts (#437)
2) FL APB Darrian Felix (#600)
3) LA OT Adrian Ealy (#249)
4) WV OT Riley Locklear (#653)
5) TN RB Ty Chandler (#111)
6) GA CB Yusuf Corker (#315)
7) WV OG Billy Ross (#360)
8) TX OT Chuck Filiaga (#93)
9) AL DE LaBryan Ray (#102)
10) TN OT Obinna Eze (#212)
11) AL LB Kenny Britt (#313)
12) GA WR Justin Marshall (#399)
13) TN OT Trey Smith (#48)
14) NC LB Hamsah Nasirildeen (#136)
15) TN CB TJ Carter (#467)
16) CA QB Jack Sears (#205)
17) VA DE/DT Elijah Conliffe (#443)
18) NC LB Justin Foster (#79)

Overrated
1) GA OT Tony Gray (#127)
2) GA DE Malik Herring (#99)
3) CO LB Santino Marchiol (#269)
4) GA DE Michael Allen (#436)
5) NC OT TJ Moore (#226)
6) VA DT Breyon Gaddy (#275)

Let's see who yall think are underrated/overrated, since you seem to think the entire 2017 UT commitment list is grossly underrated, ha.

I shortened my original post to just include my list of underrated/overrated prospects we appear to be in on at this time.

I'm excited that Locklear committed today. That's a solid commitment and no matter where his rating ends up, he appears to have the athletic ability and physicality that is ideal for this offense. Kamoshika compared him to Coleman Thomas coming out of HS and I agree with that 100%. Great pickup for us.

Hope we get Derek Pitts and Billy Ross out of WV also. I think Ross will be committing to us on his team's first day of practice (8/1 I think).

I actually think we stand a very good chance to get 6 of my top 7 underrated Vol prospects. Ealy is probably the least likely of the group. Felix spoke really well about us after OCD but he may have still had a visit high. I'd love to add him to our class.

Anyway, I think Coleman Thomas is one of our best lineman and could become our best next year if he doesn't make the jump to the NFL. He's exceptional on pulling plays. He just needs to improve pass blocking. If Locklear has similar potential as Thomas he'll likely be one of our best 2017 class additions. Pure speculation of course.
 
#19
#19
I shortened my original post to just include my list of underrated/overrated prospects we appear to be in on at this time.

I'm excited that Locklear committed today. That's a solid commitment and no matter where his rating ends up, he appears to have the athletic ability and physicality that is ideal for this offense. Kamoshika compared him to Coleman Thomas coming out of HS and I agree with that 100%. Great pickup for us.

Hope we get Derek Pitts and Billy Ross out of WV also. I think Ross will be committing to us on his team's first day of practice (8/1 I think).

I actually think we stand a very good chance to get 6 of my top 7 underrated Vol prospects. Ealy is probably the least likely of the group. Felix spoke really well about us after OCD but he may have still had a visit high. I'd love to add him to our class.

Anyway, I think Coleman Thomas is one of our best lineman and could become our best next year if he doesn't make the jump to the NFL. He's exceptional on pulling plays. He just needs to improve pass blocking. If Locklear has similar potential as Thomas he'll likely be one of our best 2017 class additions. Pure speculation of course.

If I may ask, why do you have Gaddy as being overrated? Allen as well, isn't he a 3 star?
 
#20
#20
If I may ask, why do you have Gaddy as being overrated? Allen as well, isn't he a 3 star?

Sure. Fair question and it deserves explaining since he very likely will end up a UT commitment (based on his tweet today).

I view our most effective DTs against the pass being on the lighter, more mobile side (but perhaps not as light as Picou). IMO our most effective pass rushing DT in the CBJ era was JUCO Owen Williams (who of course just graduated). Kmac and Tuttle were good against the run -- especially Tuttle -- but neither were overly effective at collapsing the pocket and applying pressure on the QB. Of course both were just freshmen and have an exceptional future. Plus, Tuttle did have some impressive moments on passing downs but not consistently. He was exceptional against the run for a freshmen DT>

This ties into my view on Gaddy. As a UT fan, my over/under ranking is tied to the schemes that UT runs. That's bc I'm thinking in context to how much of a fit a prospect would be in our system (FTR, I did not account for UT's O & D scheme when rating the players who are not realistic UT prospects in my original post).

Thus, if we ran a 3-4 D, Gaddy would have not been on my overrated list. But at 350 lbs, he's too heavy right now to be effective in passing situations IMO. Now, it is important to point out that he is exceptionally quick given his size. This is a great indication that he could be extremely effective at a lighter weight. If he signs with UT, I hope he gets down in weight considerably. I'm sure that will be the intention of the staff.

In other words, I think Gaddy's potential is very high. Considering that he is a two-for-one play right now (need two spots for him bc of his brother, who, although perhaps deserving on his own, appears not to have a "natural" position at this time) with rumored grade problems, I am not enthusiastic about his commitment at this time. But he's an intriguing prospect nonetheless, who has considerable potential IMO.

As far as Allen....the dude got absolutely embarrassed by our own Cade Mays in a camp setting. Although that was just one rep (albeit one that sticks with you awhile lol), he didn't look overly impressive on any of his reps that I saw in two separate camp events. Camps aren't the end-all be-all, but I didn't view his highlight reel as overly impressive either. He has exceptional size, which leads to a high ceiling, which leads to a higher ranking than he would probably have otherwise. To me, our commit Lawson looks better than him at this point, and I'm not sure how excited I should be over his commitment (I'm basically neither hot or cold on Lawson). I definitely would not be excited to see a commitment from Allen. But, again, he's got the size. But there's plenty who do and never do anything with it. I'd rather have a Derek Barnett who lacks the size but has all the intangibles (that's an obvious example but I'm just saying that intangibles are sometimes more valuable than ideal physical attributes that often lead to high rankings).

Lastly, TJ Moore was listed as overrated bc, to my knowledge, he is not being heavily pursued by other marquee schools (I don't consider USCe "marquee"), whereas most of our other OL targets are heavily pursued by bigger names. That's the irony in him having a top 250 ranking and Ross and Locklear not. He does have potential at either OG or even C. Montell Hardy made a good point on his potential a day or two ago.
 
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#22
#22
Sure. Fair question and it deserves explaining since he very likely will end up a UT commitment (based on his tweet today).

I view our most effective DTs against the pass being on the lighter, more mobile side (but perhaps not as light as Picou). IMO our most effective pass rushing DT in the CBJ era was JUCO Owen Williams (who of course just graduated). Kmac and Tuttle were good against the run -- especially Tuttle -- but neither were overly effective at collapsing the pocket and applying pressure on the QB. Of course both were just freshmen and have an exceptional future. Plus, Tuttle did have some impressive moments on passing downs but not consistently. He was exceptional against the run for a freshmen DT>

This ties into my view on Gaddy. As a UT fan, my over/under ranking is tied to the schemes that UT runs. That's bc I'm thinking in context to how much of a fit a prospect would be in our system (FTR, I did not account for UT's O & D scheme when rating the players who are not realistic UT prospects in my original post).

Thus, if we ran a 3-4 D, Gaddy would have not been on my overrated list. But at 350 lbs, he's too heavy right now to be effective in passing situations IMO. Now, it is important to point out that he is exceptionally quick given his size. This is a great indication that he could be extremely effective at a lighter weight. If he signs with UT, I hope he gets down in weight considerably. I'm sure that will be the intention of the staff.

In other words, I think Gaddy's potential is very high. Considering that he is a two-for-one play right now (need two spots for him bc of his brother, who, although perhaps deserving on his own, appears not to have a "natural" position at this time) with rumored grade problems, I am not enthusiastic about his commitment at this time. But he's an intriguing prospect nonetheless, who has considerable potential IMO.

As far as Allen....the dude got absolutely embarrassed by our own Cade Mays in a camp setting. Although that was just one rep (albeit one that sticks with you awhile lol), he didn't look overly impressive on any of his reps that I saw in two separate camp events. Camps aren't the end-all be-all, but I didn't view his highlight reel as overly impressive either. He has exceptional size, which leads to a high ceiling, which leads to a higher ranking than he would probably have otherwise. To me, our commit Lawson looks better than him at this point, and I'm not sure how excited I should be over his commitment (I'm basically neither hot or cold on Lawson). I definitely would not be excited to see a commitment from Allen. But, again, he's got the size. But there's plenty who do and never do anything with it. I'd rather have a Derek Barnett who lacks the size but has all the intangibles (that's an obvious example but I'm just saying that intangibles are sometimes more valuable than ideal physical attributes that often lead to high rankings).

Lastly, TJ Moore was listed as overrated bc, to my knowledge, he is not being heavily pursued by other marquee schools (I don't consider USCe "marquee"), whereas most of our other OL targets are heavily pursued by bigger names. That's the irony in him having a top 250 ranking and Ross and Locklear not. He does have potential at either OG or even C. Montell Hardy made a good point on his potential a day or two ago.

Good answers, thank you. As for Allen, I haven't seen any of his tape, but getting pancaked by Mays seems to be commonplace for every DE out there, including 5 stars! If Allen does commit, maybe it is based on potential and Stripling can coach him up.
 

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