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2018 Recruiting Forum: Official West Virginia Pre-Game/Game Thread
Date: Saturday, September 1
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Network: CBS
Through many dangers, toils and snares, we have already come...
The last time one of these threads was posted was November 25th, 2017. They were simple times. We were getting ready to beat Vandy to close out the season, and we had full confidence that Currie was about to land us a heck of a football coach. You know the story, and here we are... beginning the Pruitt era in Charlotte, North Carolina against a top 25 opponent. It's a season that has fairly low expectations, so I suggest buckling in loosely and enjoying it for what it is. Generally, I begin these threads a week in advance, but week 1 gets a little extra rope. Let's go.
Keys to Victory:
1. Smear the Grier: Ok, childish game reference aside, Will Grier is a very good quarterback. Possibly the best the Vols will face this season, though Drew Lock may have something to say about that. Grier was the slippery Gator the Vols couldn't seem to get a hold of 3 years ago in the swamp, as Florida turned a simple hook pattern into an impossibly long touchdown to win the game on 3rd and forever. Somehow, Jim McElwain thought it was best to drive Grier away soon after that when he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, and of course, we know how Florida QB play has been since then... and McElwain is now counting pennies in Ann Arbor for Jim Harbaugh.
Here is a look at how Grier performed last season:
View attachment 163630
The stats speak for themselves. Aside from a poor performance against Oklahoma State, he was remarkably good. He is not prone to turn the ball over, and has a blistering completion % of 64.4%. A veteran Tennessee front 7 need to keep constant pressure on Grier, and unlike the Vols of 2015, need to bring him to the ground, in order to help out the young TN corner backs. If Tennessee could hold him to below 300 passing yards, they would be only the second team to do so since his WV arrival. Tall order. Strangely, with such a great passing attack, West Virginia was terrible on 3rd and long situations. They gain their yards big chunks at a time, and if they are not able to pick up substantial yardage on 1st and 2nd down, they may have trouble converting on 3rd. Key Point: Grier passing below 320 yards.
2. Outrun the Gun: Tennessee is not about to out throw the Mountaineers, who are very talented in the secondary, but they very well may be able to outrun them. The Vols will likely be "running back by committee" with Ty Chandler, Madre London & Tim Jordan getting the bulk of the work. I expect Chandler to bring himself to the front of the pack with his undeniable big play potential. Most importantly, the Tennessee offensive line will be at full strength, barring any injuries over the next two weeks. The top 5 look pretty good, but after that, things get thin pretty quick. Being able to have a go at full strength gives Tennessee a needed edge and should help the Vols to control the pace of the game. They do NOT want a shootout. Last season WV allowed 204 yards per game rushing. Tennessee will need to get more than that to win. West Virginia brings in DT transfers from USC and Clemson, so it's hard to tell what they are going to have up front.
West Virginia does not bring much to the table in the running game. Their top returning RB accounted for 596 yards last season. This is good news... since Tennessee gave up 251 YPG in 2017. Key Point: Vols out rush WV by 100 yards.
3. Turnovers: Over the previous 5 seasons, Jeremy Pruitt led defenses have led the nation in forced turnovers, averaging 139 per season. When he has arrived at FSU, UGA, and Alabama, each of those teams increased their forced turnovers by over 10 in the following season. Tennessee was -3 on turnovers last year, with a total of 17 turnovers gained. If Pruitt could bring that total up by his standard 10 turnover average, that would be 27 forced turnovers... which is pretty high on the food chain. Turnovers will be key in this game. Key Point: Tennessee +2 in turnovers.
4. Working out the Kinks: Every new staff has to work out the bugs in their first season. There will be miscommunications, misalignment, missed assignments and other sorts of calamities. This is the inevitable lot that comes with being a brand spanking new head coach. Let's hope the preparations are ready for a smooth performance. Key Point: Do the things that good coaches do.
5. Battle on the Edges: West Virginia features a trio of wide receivers that terrorize opponents. Together, they logged 1.55 miles (or 2,739 yards, if that's your thing) last season. Jennings is their top WR in the slot, with one of the weirdest stat lines you'll see... 97 catches, 1096 yards and 1 TD. One touchdown in week one... on 97 catches, are you serious? I mean, is this like an intentional thing... run to the 1 and kneel or something? Does he have some sort of bet going on? Is he caught up in some sort of bizarre West Virginia moonshine mafia betting ring that won't let him score? Besides Jennings... who may or may not be under the thumb of the mountaineer mafia is former QB superstar turned pretty dang good WR David Sills and Marcus Sims.
Tennessee expects to start true freshman Alontae Taylor on one end, and unless things change, Baylen Buchanan in the other CB position. While Taylor is immensely talented, few true freshmen shine in their first start... especially against WR's of this caliber. Taylor may end up taking some lumps, but hopefully, his talent shines as well and it is a good sign of things to come. If he has an outstanding performance, Vols fans have plenty to be excited for over the coming 3 years. Baylen has had an inconsistent career so far but this will be a chance for him to display the growth he's experienced and the quality of coaching each have been under. Key Point: Limit the big 3 WR's to under 250 yards receiving.
6. Display of Strength: The bad news is Tennessee has been tremendously underdeveloped in the strength and conditioning program over the last 3 years. The good news is that the less developed you are, the quicker you make progress. This means that our opponents who have had decent S&C programs will only marginally improve, or maintain their program in S&C from season to season. For Tennessee, the underdevelopment means there is a much larger room for progress over the next 3-4 seasons... with season 1 likely being the biggest, but not the most important change. What does this mean? If the S&C department has done the work that we all hope they have done, this team will look dramatically different than they did last year... though not as strong as they will from season to season over the next 4 years.
Now, ChattaTNVol pointed out a few weeks ago that the composite 247 star rating of the top 40 players for each team are .8475 for West Virginia and .9287 for Tennessee. Aside from HS performance, ratings take into account the existing development of the players and also the expected genetic potential "has room in his frame..." for the players. Frankly speaking, Tennessee started with the higher potential players, but they haven't been developed. West Virginia had less to work with, but has likely developed what they had to a higher degree. I would say this is likely a wash at this point, but it will be a very interesting thing to see... has Tennessee finally developed their 4-5* talents to perform as such or will a bunch of 3* players with proper development be too much to overcome? It will tell a lot about how this team will do in SEC play. Key Point: Perform like you "even lift, bro."
Prediction: The Vols come out and look like a team that knows how to play football. Fundamentally, they are sound, but the offense is inconsistent on their drives and the defense has trouble slowing down the West Virginia Air Raid.
TN 17
WV 31
Date: Saturday, September 1
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Network: CBS
Through many dangers, toils and snares, we have already come...
The last time one of these threads was posted was November 25th, 2017. They were simple times. We were getting ready to beat Vandy to close out the season, and we had full confidence that Currie was about to land us a heck of a football coach. You know the story, and here we are... beginning the Pruitt era in Charlotte, North Carolina against a top 25 opponent. It's a season that has fairly low expectations, so I suggest buckling in loosely and enjoying it for what it is. Generally, I begin these threads a week in advance, but week 1 gets a little extra rope. Let's go.
Keys to Victory:
1. Smear the Grier: Ok, childish game reference aside, Will Grier is a very good quarterback. Possibly the best the Vols will face this season, though Drew Lock may have something to say about that. Grier was the slippery Gator the Vols couldn't seem to get a hold of 3 years ago in the swamp, as Florida turned a simple hook pattern into an impossibly long touchdown to win the game on 3rd and forever. Somehow, Jim McElwain thought it was best to drive Grier away soon after that when he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, and of course, we know how Florida QB play has been since then... and McElwain is now counting pennies in Ann Arbor for Jim Harbaugh.
Here is a look at how Grier performed last season:
View attachment 163630
The stats speak for themselves. Aside from a poor performance against Oklahoma State, he was remarkably good. He is not prone to turn the ball over, and has a blistering completion % of 64.4%. A veteran Tennessee front 7 need to keep constant pressure on Grier, and unlike the Vols of 2015, need to bring him to the ground, in order to help out the young TN corner backs. If Tennessee could hold him to below 300 passing yards, they would be only the second team to do so since his WV arrival. Tall order. Strangely, with such a great passing attack, West Virginia was terrible on 3rd and long situations. They gain their yards big chunks at a time, and if they are not able to pick up substantial yardage on 1st and 2nd down, they may have trouble converting on 3rd. Key Point: Grier passing below 320 yards.
2. Outrun the Gun: Tennessee is not about to out throw the Mountaineers, who are very talented in the secondary, but they very well may be able to outrun them. The Vols will likely be "running back by committee" with Ty Chandler, Madre London & Tim Jordan getting the bulk of the work. I expect Chandler to bring himself to the front of the pack with his undeniable big play potential. Most importantly, the Tennessee offensive line will be at full strength, barring any injuries over the next two weeks. The top 5 look pretty good, but after that, things get thin pretty quick. Being able to have a go at full strength gives Tennessee a needed edge and should help the Vols to control the pace of the game. They do NOT want a shootout. Last season WV allowed 204 yards per game rushing. Tennessee will need to get more than that to win. West Virginia brings in DT transfers from USC and Clemson, so it's hard to tell what they are going to have up front.
West Virginia does not bring much to the table in the running game. Their top returning RB accounted for 596 yards last season. This is good news... since Tennessee gave up 251 YPG in 2017. Key Point: Vols out rush WV by 100 yards.
3. Turnovers: Over the previous 5 seasons, Jeremy Pruitt led defenses have led the nation in forced turnovers, averaging 139 per season. When he has arrived at FSU, UGA, and Alabama, each of those teams increased their forced turnovers by over 10 in the following season. Tennessee was -3 on turnovers last year, with a total of 17 turnovers gained. If Pruitt could bring that total up by his standard 10 turnover average, that would be 27 forced turnovers... which is pretty high on the food chain. Turnovers will be key in this game. Key Point: Tennessee +2 in turnovers.
4. Working out the Kinks: Every new staff has to work out the bugs in their first season. There will be miscommunications, misalignment, missed assignments and other sorts of calamities. This is the inevitable lot that comes with being a brand spanking new head coach. Let's hope the preparations are ready for a smooth performance. Key Point: Do the things that good coaches do.
5. Battle on the Edges: West Virginia features a trio of wide receivers that terrorize opponents. Together, they logged 1.55 miles (or 2,739 yards, if that's your thing) last season. Jennings is their top WR in the slot, with one of the weirdest stat lines you'll see... 97 catches, 1096 yards and 1 TD. One touchdown in week one... on 97 catches, are you serious? I mean, is this like an intentional thing... run to the 1 and kneel or something? Does he have some sort of bet going on? Is he caught up in some sort of bizarre West Virginia moonshine mafia betting ring that won't let him score? Besides Jennings... who may or may not be under the thumb of the mountaineer mafia is former QB superstar turned pretty dang good WR David Sills and Marcus Sims.
Tennessee expects to start true freshman Alontae Taylor on one end, and unless things change, Baylen Buchanan in the other CB position. While Taylor is immensely talented, few true freshmen shine in their first start... especially against WR's of this caliber. Taylor may end up taking some lumps, but hopefully, his talent shines as well and it is a good sign of things to come. If he has an outstanding performance, Vols fans have plenty to be excited for over the coming 3 years. Baylen has had an inconsistent career so far but this will be a chance for him to display the growth he's experienced and the quality of coaching each have been under. Key Point: Limit the big 3 WR's to under 250 yards receiving.
6. Display of Strength: The bad news is Tennessee has been tremendously underdeveloped in the strength and conditioning program over the last 3 years. The good news is that the less developed you are, the quicker you make progress. This means that our opponents who have had decent S&C programs will only marginally improve, or maintain their program in S&C from season to season. For Tennessee, the underdevelopment means there is a much larger room for progress over the next 3-4 seasons... with season 1 likely being the biggest, but not the most important change. What does this mean? If the S&C department has done the work that we all hope they have done, this team will look dramatically different than they did last year... though not as strong as they will from season to season over the next 4 years.
Now, ChattaTNVol pointed out a few weeks ago that the composite 247 star rating of the top 40 players for each team are .8475 for West Virginia and .9287 for Tennessee. Aside from HS performance, ratings take into account the existing development of the players and also the expected genetic potential "has room in his frame..." for the players. Frankly speaking, Tennessee started with the higher potential players, but they haven't been developed. West Virginia had less to work with, but has likely developed what they had to a higher degree. I would say this is likely a wash at this point, but it will be a very interesting thing to see... has Tennessee finally developed their 4-5* talents to perform as such or will a bunch of 3* players with proper development be too much to overcome? It will tell a lot about how this team will do in SEC play. Key Point: Perform like you "even lift, bro."
Prediction: The Vols come out and look like a team that knows how to play football. Fundamentally, they are sound, but the offense is inconsistent on their drives and the defense has trouble slowing down the West Virginia Air Raid.
TN 17
WV 31
