Shades
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Here is a look at WVU from 2017, and some conclusions for WVU vs UT.
WVU played 13 games in 2017 (7-6 final record):
1 FCS [Delaware St] (1-0 record)
9 FBS games with Greer (6-3 record)
3 FBS games without Greer (0-3 record)
Chronological schedule results:
Greer was injured in the 1st quarter of the Texas game and did not play for the remainder of the Texas game or the last two games.
Their season went downhill fast during those last three games.
Now let's look at the above schedule, except sorted by the final 2017 ranking of its opponents:
WVU tanked against top 25 opponents, and did a pretty good job of beating up on weak opponents.
Turnovers
WVU is prone to turnovers, averaging 2 turnovers per game in 2017.
In every loss in 2017, WVU had a negative turnover differential.
WVU only won one game, by a slim margin, while having a negative turnover differential (Kansas State).
Greer's passing numbers came largely against a group of teams with very weak pass defenses.
The "strongest" pass defense that Greer faced was VA Tech. However Tech's pass defense was overrated, as they only played two of the top 25 pass offenses in the nation and got smoked by both of them. The next three hardest pass offenses that VA Tech faced were #38 Clemson, #48 UVA and #51 Miami, and they lost to Clemson and Miami. The remainder of VA Tech opponents had very weak pass offenses.
Greer put up some nice passing stats, but he was not tested against a decent passing defense.
WVU rushing offense
WVU can struggle with its run offense or do well with its rush offense, regardless of the opposing defense's strength of rushing defense. WVU rushing yards did not have a strong correlation with wins or losses.
WVU's defense is susceptible to the run.
Even very bad rushing offenses could gain at least 100-150 yds rushing.
Note that lowly Kansas gained 367 yds on the ground.
Teams with decent or good rushing offenses gained 170 to 300+ yds rushing.
A team that rushes for over 200 yds is very likely to beat WVU.
WVU against the pass
Teams with decent passing attacks can gain 250-350 passing yds against WVU.
Teams with a mediocre passing attack tend to gain 150-230 yds passing.
Teams with good passing attacks are not guaranteed to beat WVU.
A team does not have to have a stellar passing game to beat WVU, as long as they have a good rushing attack.
Conclusions for UT vs WVU
Pretty straightforward conclusions; many of which have been discussed in other threads.
1) Win the turnover battle (we hear you General Neyland).
2) Control the game with a strong rushing attack of over 200 yds on the ground. Pound their defensive line over and over.
3) Balance the rushing attack with a respectable passing game (~200 yds).
4) Greer did not face a decent pass defense in 2017. Pruitt's expertise in the secondary will help put the test to Greer, if our guys execute.
WVU played 13 games in 2017 (7-6 final record):
1 FCS [Delaware St] (1-0 record)
9 FBS games with Greer (6-3 record)
3 FBS games without Greer (0-3 record)
Chronological schedule results:
Greer was injured in the 1st quarter of the Texas game and did not play for the remainder of the Texas game or the last two games.
Their season went downhill fast during those last three games.
Now let's look at the above schedule, except sorted by the final 2017 ranking of its opponents:
WVU tanked against top 25 opponents, and did a pretty good job of beating up on weak opponents.
Turnovers
WVU is prone to turnovers, averaging 2 turnovers per game in 2017.
In every loss in 2017, WVU had a negative turnover differential.
WVU only won one game, by a slim margin, while having a negative turnover differential (Kansas State).
Greer's passing numbers came largely against a group of teams with very weak pass defenses.
The "strongest" pass defense that Greer faced was VA Tech. However Tech's pass defense was overrated, as they only played two of the top 25 pass offenses in the nation and got smoked by both of them. The next three hardest pass offenses that VA Tech faced were #38 Clemson, #48 UVA and #51 Miami, and they lost to Clemson and Miami. The remainder of VA Tech opponents had very weak pass offenses.
Greer put up some nice passing stats, but he was not tested against a decent passing defense.
WVU rushing offense
WVU can struggle with its run offense or do well with its rush offense, regardless of the opposing defense's strength of rushing defense. WVU rushing yards did not have a strong correlation with wins or losses.
WVU's defense is susceptible to the run.
Even very bad rushing offenses could gain at least 100-150 yds rushing.
Note that lowly Kansas gained 367 yds on the ground.
Teams with decent or good rushing offenses gained 170 to 300+ yds rushing.
A team that rushes for over 200 yds is very likely to beat WVU.
WVU against the pass
Teams with decent passing attacks can gain 250-350 passing yds against WVU.
Teams with a mediocre passing attack tend to gain 150-230 yds passing.
Teams with good passing attacks are not guaranteed to beat WVU.
A team does not have to have a stellar passing game to beat WVU, as long as they have a good rushing attack.
Conclusions for UT vs WVU
Pretty straightforward conclusions; many of which have been discussed in other threads.
1) Win the turnover battle (we hear you General Neyland).
2) Control the game with a strong rushing attack of over 200 yds on the ground. Pound their defensive line over and over.
3) Balance the rushing attack with a respectable passing game (~200 yds).
4) Greer did not face a decent pass defense in 2017. Pruitt's expertise in the secondary will help put the test to Greer, if our guys execute.
