Why Are We Underdogs?

#1
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vavolfan6

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#1
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
 
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#2
#2
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...

Because the guys who actually put their money on the line think we'll lose. They have no emotional ties. Florida to them looks bigger, stronger, faster.
 
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#4
#4
Think about this, before the season started the perception was that the Vols sucked so the WVU line was meant to reflect that. And WVU still covered. Which means the Vols were even worse than Vegas's perceived image of them.

The vols have been very disappointing in the last 15 years. Until they beat someone of substance convincingly and consistently, this stank won't come off. And it probably shouldn't. Take off the orange tint and join us in reality for a minute.
 
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#5
#5
We are not good. So when we are even or even slightly better, history says side with Florida.

Can you honeslty think of one reason why we should be favored, besides the obvious "because GBO?"
 
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#7
#7
volfannbama said:
We are not good. So when we are even or even slightly better, history says side with Florida.

Can you honeslty think of one reason why we should be favored, besides the obvious "because GBO?"
Click to expand...
How about go Vols?
 
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#8
#8
It's pretty simple..

A. We've failed to establish a consistent rushing attack, especially on first down. Our run blocking has been mediocre at the very best & that's against less than stellar competition in 2/3 games played.

B. Our defense hasn't shown that it can get to the quarterback on a consistent basis. Pressure in the backfield has been almost non existent.

C. Our DB's, whether it be the veteran players or the freshmen, haven't exactly shown the coverage skills it takes to be successful in the SEC. Outside of when Sutton was here seriously when was the last time we had a DB step on the field that we were confident in they could cover the man across from them?

Home field advantage helps and Florida is obviously not the power they once were but it makes sense that we're not favored nor should we be. I don't see us all a sudden being able to do these things, especially as SEC competition gets underway.
 
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#11
#11
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...
Who Freaking cares, it’s Vegas, just WIN!
 
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#12
#12
I've been asking the same question. We lost to a highly ranked team with a Heisman candidate at QB in a neutral site game, and they lost by double-digits to Kentucky at home. Both teams are 2-1 and beat up on the teams they should have beat up on. People keep talking about Florida's defense as a reason they will beat us. My question is what defense? The defense that Kentucky ran all over? I just dont see it.... Tennesseee should win Saturday.
 
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#14
#14
It opened at 8 points and dropped to 4.5 so a lot of people were taking us and the points. I think for the general public it is just a mind set that they will beat us and they don't really break it down. But I was baffled by it too.
 
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#18
#18
Longsufferingvol said:
I've been asking the same question. We lost to a highly ranked team with a Heisman candidate at QB in a neutral site game, and they lost by double-digits to Kentucky at home. Both teams are 2-1 and beat up on the teams they should have beat up on. People keep talking about Florida's defense as a reason they will beat us. My question is what defense? The defense that Kentucky ran all over? I just dont see it.... Tennesseee should win Saturday.
Click to expand...

The line setters buy in that KY was a legit loss for Florida because KY is that good(Are they?), but our loss to WVU was a bad loss because WVU isn’t that good.

I think our loss was a bad loss, but Florida’s was worse.

It will be a long day if our DBs continue to sit on routes if the blitz don’t get there.

With two more games under our belt I expect our DBs to use that experience to cover Florida’s WRs better than what they showed against WVU.

I don’t expect FL to lay down late as much as they did in 2016, but they still fold under the noise of Neyland.
 
#20
#20
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...
Get use to it. We're going to be underdogs in every SEC game this year.
 
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#21
#21
TBH Vegas looks at a lot more than the eye test to set the betting lines. There are a lot of analytics that are considered that nobody talks about, and not just the typical offensive yards per play, pass yards, rush yards, defensive yards allowed. These guys have programs that analyze efficiency on each down, proficiency in the red zone, player rating vs a particular defense, and a lot more. And that doesn't even touch the unbiased, money driven, business minded decision making done by the guys that make picks for a living and have unofficial reports from practices about player health etc. I bleed orange and I can't wait to see an upset, but Vegas is a business and in Vegas the house almost always wins. So when we win Saturday we will have beaten the house and that is rare. We all support our VOLS based on emotion and heart, and I will never change that, but I also know that we are fighting an uphill battle to regain favor in coin toss games.
 
#24
#24
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Get use to it. We're going to be underdogs in every SEC game this year.
Click to expand...
Being emotionally invested in Vol football is draining. Besides a few times in 2015 and 2016...tired of trying to rationalize ways we're going to win before a game, only to prove that I had orange colored delusions of grandeur after the game. But, I'll keep at it...Go Vols...we've got this
 
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