Here's the teams that gave the best defenses a difficult time in 2018

#1
bpalmer28

bpalmer28

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#1
Ole Miss finished the season ranked #9 in total offense, but against good defenses (Alabama, MSU, LSU, and Auburn) they were out scored 173-42. That's 10.5 points per game. So are we suppose to think Ole Miss had a "good" offense simply because they were ranked in the top 10?

Statistics can be deceiving. To me, a good offense is one that does well against good defenses. In 2018, there are 13 teams that scored at least 21 points on 3 separate occasions against a Top 30 defense. Those teams are as follows:

Texas A&M (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Auburn (4)
Virginia Tech (3)
Alabama (3)
Ohio State (3)
Boise State (3)
Stanford (3)
Georgia (3)
Missouri (3)
Penn State (3)
Tennessee (3)
Utah State (3)

Nothing earth shattering here, I know. Just thought I'd share what I found. TIFWIW.
 
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#8
#8
Talk about skewed parameters leading to skewed results. No Big 12 teams would even be allowed to qualify under these parameters. An ACC or PAC team would have had to play the exact 3 teams in the top 30 from their conference, and then batted .1000. Meanwhile, an SEC team merely had to play 3 out of 7 different teams, greatly increasing the likelihood of eligibility and greatly decreasing their needed "batting average" to meet the parameter. TN, for example, had 5 chances to meet this bare minimum "21 point" barrier and met it 3 times, the highest of all them being 24 points (UK, including a hail mary). I guess we see why 21 points was chosen, had it been 25, we would not have hit it even ONCE.
 
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#9
#9
And 22.8 PPG is not good at all. 108th nationally using raw stats. 83rd nationally using opponent-adjusted stats. No skewing or parameters, just suckage.
 
#10
#10
You also egregiously and fallaciously trick readers by comparing different stats. You tell us Ole Miss had a top-10 offense. Guess you are going by total yards, not scoring, where they are merely 33rd nationally at 33.9 ppg, nothing elite. Good for 5th in the SEC. Scoring matters, since it accounts for things like, you know, red zone offense, TOs, 3rd down conversion, not just hitting big plays. Hint: they were 13th in conference in RZ TD conversions. Yards don't equal points.

You then go on to make an argument based on scoring, not yards. Keep it consistent and talk about scoring at least, so we'll know you're comparing a decent, not great, offense.
 
#11
#11
10.5 points per game??? what does that tell you and where did that number come from? stats can be adjusted to fit just about any agenda you want them to EXCEPT for calling UT's offense good, which is damn near as close to communism as you can get.
 
#12
#12
Vol_from_86 said:
Ole Miss finished the season ranked #9 in total offense, but against good defenses (Alabama, MSU, LSU, and Auburn) they were out scored 173-42. That's 10.5 points per game. So are we suppose to think Ole Miss had a "good" offense simply because they were ranked in the top 10?

Statistics can be deceiving. To me, a good offense is one that does well against good defenses. In 2018, there are 13 teams that scored at least 21 points on 3 separate occasions against a Top 30 defense. Those teams are as follows:

Texas A&M (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Auburn (4)
Virginia Tech (3)
Alabama (3)
Ohio State (3)
Boise State (3)
Stanford (3)
Georgia (3)
Missouri (3)
Penn State (3)
Tennessee (3)
Utah State (3)

Nothing earth shattering here, I know. Just thought I'd share what I found. TIFWIW.
Click to expand...
List lost its validity with us on it lol. I mean we scored 10 on Charlotte
 
#13
#13
piratelifeforme said:
10.5 points per game??? what does that tell you and where did that number come from? stats can be adjusted to fit just about any agenda you want them to EXCEPT for calling UT's offense good, which is damn near as close to communism as you can get.
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10.5 points per game against Alabama, Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn. It's evidence that ranking high in categorical rankings doesn't mean much. Ole Miss finished #9 in total offense but they were terrible against good defenses. I just thought that was interesting.

I'm not trying to push any agenda. Nobody in this thread said UT has a good offense. They are in the list of 13 because they are 1 of 13 teams that has scored 21 points or more against 3 good Top 30 defenses.
 
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#14
#14
VolForLife83 said:
List lost its validity with us on it lol. I mean we scored 10 on Charlotte
Click to expand...
Again, TIFWIW. I was as surprised as anyone when they showed up. My intent in doing this study was not to reveal anything about Tennessee.... I was looking for an offensive coordinator candidate that has had success against good defenses. Didn't really find what I was looking for but figured I'd share the results anyway.
 
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#17
#17
Vol_from_86 said:
Again, TIFWIW. I was as surprised as anyone when they showed up. My intent in doing this study was not to reveal anything about Tennessee.... I was looking for an offensive coordinator candidate that has had success against good defenses. Didn't really find what I was looking for but figured I'd share the results anyway.
Click to expand...

I would suggest something like regression analysis, not this. This skews way too much. To not even allow in a b12 OC is a travesty.
 
#18
#18
Maybe I'm looking at the wrong list, but it looks like UT's offense only scored 21+ against 2 Top 30 defenses: Kentucky and Florida. Who was the 3rd?
 
#19
#19
Devo182 said:
You also egregiously and fallaciously trick readers by comparing different stats. You tell us Ole Miss had a top-10 offense. Guess you are going by total yards, not scoring, where they are merely 33rd nationally at 33.9 ppg, nothing elite. Good for 5th in the SEC. Scoring matters, since it accounts for things like, you know, red zone offense, TOs, 3rd down conversion, not just hitting big plays. Hint: they were 13th in conference in RZ TD conversions. Yards don't equal points.

You then go on to make an argument based on scoring, not yards. Keep it consistent and talk about scoring at least, so we'll know you're comparing a decent, not great, offense.
Click to expand...
Get your panties out a bunch. If you weren't so worked up you'd see that you are making my point. I clearly stated that Ole Miss was ranked #9 in TOTAL OFFENSE. Nothing tricky about that. And I went on to say that "Statistics can be deceiving." Ole Miss was a prime example.

I heard the Ole Miss stats on the radio this morning. Their suckage against good defenses made me wonder who has had success against good defense, so I did my best to quickly find out. Simple as that.
 
#22
#22
Devo182 said:
Talk about skewed parameters leading to skewed results. No Big 12 teams would even be allowed to qualify under these parameters. An ACC or PAC team would have had to play the exact 3 teams in the top 30 from their conference, and then batted .1000. Meanwhile, an SEC team merely had to play 3 out of 7 different teams, greatly increasing the likelihood of eligibility and greatly decreasing their needed "batting average" to meet the parameter. TN, for example, had 5 chances to meet this bare minimum "21 point" barrier and met it 3 times, the highest of all them being 24 points (UK, including a hail mary). I guess we see why 21 points was chosen, had it been 25, we would not have hit it even ONCE.
Click to expand...
You've got to count for defensive scores as well....The devil is always in the details
 
#23
#23
Devo182 said:
I would suggest something like regression analysis, not this. This skews way too much. To not even allow in a b12 OC is a travesty.
Click to expand...
I don't even know what a regression analysis is, but if you'd like to do a more sophisticated analysis I'd love to see the results. FWIW, Oklahoma put up 21+ against two Top 30 defenses, Army and TCU. Big 12 defenses don't rank high in total defense due in part to playing against some of the best offenses in the country, so I'm sure there's a better way to do this.

That's why I said "TIFWIW" in my OP rather than drawing any conclusions from the results.
 
#25
#25
Vol_from_86 said:
Ole Miss finished the season ranked #9 in total offense, but against good defenses (Alabama, MSU, LSU, and Auburn) they were out scored 173-42. That's 10.5 points per game. So are we suppose to think Ole Miss had a "good" offense simply because they were ranked in the top 10?

Statistics can be deceiving. To me, a good offense is one that does well against good defenses. In 2018, there are 13 teams that scored at least 21 points on 3 separate occasions against a Top 30 defense. Those teams are as follows:

Texas A&M (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Auburn (4)
Virginia Tech (3)
Alabama (3)
Ohio State (3)
Boise State (3)
Stanford (3)
Georgia (3)
Missouri (3)
Penn State (3)
Tennessee (3)
Utah State (3)

Nothing earth shattering here, I know. Just thought I'd share what I found. TIFWIW.
Click to expand...
Vol_from_86 said:
10.5 points per game against Alabama, Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn. It's evidence that ranking high in categorical rankings doesn't mean much. Ole Miss finished #9 in total offense but they were terrible against good defenses. I just thought that was interesting.

I'm not trying to push any agenda. I'm just saying that statistics can be deceiving. Nobody in this thread said UT has a good offense. They are in the list of 13 because they are 1 of 13 teams that has scored 21 points or more against 3 good Top 30 defenses.
Click to expand...

YOU literally said UT would qualify as a "good offense" by the criteria YOU listed!
 
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