I loved how the Auburn game set up last year for Tennessee and was calling for the upset since June of last year. My confidence was 10 of 10. Are those same metrics at play in this game?
Some, but not all. At the beginning of the year, the only reason I couldn’t outright call the upset here was it being at the Swamp where when the game gets close, UT expects something bad to happen (kind of like UK vs UF). But, let’s look at who is actually the better team.
From UT side, the running game has done well now for two weeks in a row (242, 195) and seem to be progressing in that department. I do wish UT kept JG in the game longer and let him throw more to work on timing and confidence. Passing game has been sporadic but opportunities are there, one of the best WR units in the SEC. UT has the passing weapons in the game it needs to win.
From UF side, the UF running game has really struggled, more so than anyone anticipated. Most of that can be attributed to their OL and I think their OL will get better, but the RB haven’t impressed either. As with UT, they have very good weapons in the passing game in the WR unit, VERY good. I’d put both WR groups in top 10 in the country. We simply don’t know about Trask, this is his first start since his FRESHMAN year in HS. More on this in a sec...
KEY note in this game: I waited till today because I wanted to see how injuries would unfold as I believe one is key. UF DE Zuniga looks to be out of this game. He is very good, causes havoc, and is their spark plug.
What will happen: I expect UF to come out fired up to help their QB but the best way for them to do that, is to run the ball. They can’t line it up and run it at anyone so will be interesting to see sweeps, counters, reverses, or the such. I do expect packages for Emory Jones, if nothing else, to help the running game, he is elusive, As mentioned, Trask hasn’t started and been THE man, it’s a LOT different, is he up to the task? Having UT as your first opponent isn’t ideal for UF. UT will disguise, pressure, and bait Trask, I do expect a turnover or two. UT must establish a run game, Ky was dominating UF until the 4th qtr and had Franks not got hurt or Stoops not went ultra conservative, UF loses last week. UT establishes the run, takes shots off play action. UF tries to do the same, if they can establish the run, changes everything for Trask and I would like UF’s chances, but can they?
UT: stop the run, run the ball equals a win the Swamp. Sounds simple, but it’s not.
My prediction: think UF scores early but then struggles again running the ball which forces Trask into mistakes. JG doesn’t need to be a hero, just solid, that’s why the run game is critical here. Don’t need JG to win it, just don’t need him to lose it. With Zuniga and Henderson out, UT finds a way.
My confidence is not a 10, at all on this one. If JG was playing better it might be, but it stands at a 6 confidence in this pick. Need JG to play well...
UT 28 UF 27
Some, but not all. At the beginning of the year, the only reason I couldn’t outright call the upset here was it being at the Swamp where when the game gets close, UT expects something bad to happen (kind of like UK vs UF). But, let’s look at who is actually the better team.
From UT side, the running game has done well now for two weeks in a row (242, 195) and seem to be progressing in that department. I do wish UT kept JG in the game longer and let him throw more to work on timing and confidence. Passing game has been sporadic but opportunities are there, one of the best WR units in the SEC. UT has the passing weapons in the game it needs to win.
From UF side, the UF running game has really struggled, more so than anyone anticipated. Most of that can be attributed to their OL and I think their OL will get better, but the RB haven’t impressed either. As with UT, they have very good weapons in the passing game in the WR unit, VERY good. I’d put both WR groups in top 10 in the country. We simply don’t know about Trask, this is his first start since his FRESHMAN year in HS. More on this in a sec...
KEY note in this game: I waited till today because I wanted to see how injuries would unfold as I believe one is key. UF DE Zuniga looks to be out of this game. He is very good, causes havoc, and is their spark plug.
What will happen: I expect UF to come out fired up to help their QB but the best way for them to do that, is to run the ball. They can’t line it up and run it at anyone so will be interesting to see sweeps, counters, reverses, or the such. I do expect packages for Emory Jones, if nothing else, to help the running game, he is elusive, As mentioned, Trask hasn’t started and been THE man, it’s a LOT different, is he up to the task? Having UT as your first opponent isn’t ideal for UF. UT will disguise, pressure, and bait Trask, I do expect a turnover or two. UT must establish a run game, Ky was dominating UF until the 4th qtr and had Franks not got hurt or Stoops not went ultra conservative, UF loses last week. UT establishes the run, takes shots off play action. UF tries to do the same, if they can establish the run, changes everything for Trask and I would like UF’s chances, but can they?
UT: stop the run, run the ball equals a win the Swamp. Sounds simple, but it’s not.
My prediction: think UF scores early but then struggles again running the ball which forces Trask into mistakes. JG doesn’t need to be a hero, just solid, that’s why the run game is critical here. Don’t need JG to win it, just don’t need him to lose it. With Zuniga and Henderson out, UT finds a way.
My confidence is not a 10, at all on this one. If JG was playing better it might be, but it stands at a 6 confidence in this pick. Need JG to play well...
UT 28 UF 27
