What if we'd won in September . . .

#1
VFL-82-JP

VFL-82-JP

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#1
I tend not to do hypotheticals, because they tend to be misunderstood. But this one is really interesting. So I'll just be careful how I describe it.

First, this is NOT a "we really shoulda" thread. Nor is it a "we really coulda" thread. I'm not feeding the negavols, nor am I feeding any revisionist history. We lost to Ga State and BYU (as the negas have been all too happy to point out over, and over, and over, and over again), and nothing changes that. Not taking credit for anything we didn't do. Not denying anything we did do. This isn't about either of those things.

But I think all of us who are being honest will acknowledge that we have a significantly different team than we had in early September. Not just growth throughout the season, that happens for most teams. No, this was a sea change that occurred right around the time of the Florida loss and that widely-reported meeting between Jeremy and the lads, just them. Something changed that day. A few fellas who might not have been on board left the team, others maybe got pushed into the back seat, while the majority of our squad came together as a solid team for the first time in ... years? It has been a while.

And so here's the hypothetical: where does today's team stand in the SEC, and in the national rankings, if we had been all along the team we are today? If we'd been the team who went 9-3 instead of 7-5?

One big note up front: we still wouldn't have beaten any team that is currently ranked. The only three teams we played that were (and are) ranked, those would make up our three "L"s.

So all the arguments the nega-vols are tossing around lately about "we didn't beat anybody" would still be valid (if salty) complaints.

On the other hand, there are plenty of 3- and 4-loss teams ranked right now. Eight of them, in fact. A couple, like #8 Wisconsin and #12 Auburn, have some pretty big wins over quality, ranked opponents. We wouldn't be as highly-viewed as them.

But others have a body of work which looks a lot more like our October and November results. #14 Michigan, sort of: their three losses are to the best three teams of their conference, just like our losses to UGa, FL, and Bama. On the other hand, they did beat Notre Dame and Iowa, which are better wins than any we have. So maybe we wouldn't be as highly ranked as them...but we're in the general ballpark now.

Certainly we'd be ranked above #21 Cincinnati, whose best win was against 4-8 UCLA, plus some decent Group of 5 teams.

So, in this hypothetical, I think the Vols would have ended the regular season ranked in the #15-#20 range. We would be playing maybe Oklahoma State or someone else about that level. And we'd still be divided into Nega- and Sunshine- camps. Heh.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting enough hypothetical to mention.

Go Vols!
 
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#3
#3
VFL-82-JP said:
I tend not to do hypotheticals, because they tend to be misunderstood. But this one is really interesting. So I'll just be careful how I describe it.

First, this is NOT a "we really shoulda" thread. Nor is it a "we really coulda" thread. I'm not feeding the negavols, nor am I feeding any revisionist history. We lost to Ga State and BYU (as the negas have been all too happy to point out over, and over, and over, and over again), and nothing changes that. Not taking credit for anything we didn't do. Not denying anything we did do. This isn't about either of those things.

But I think all of us who are being honest will acknowledge that we have a significantly different team than we had in early September. Not just growth throughout the season, that happens for most teams. No, this was a sea change that occurred right around the time of the Florida loss and that widely-reported meeting between Jeremy and the lads, just them. Something changed that day. A few fellas who might not have been on board left the team, others maybe got pushed into the back seat, while the majority of our squad came together as a solid team for the first time in ... years? It has been a while.

And so here's the hypothetical: where does today's team stand in the SEC, and in the national rankings, if we had been all along the team we are today? If we'd been the team who went 9-3 instead of 7-5?

One big note up front: we still wouldn't have beaten any team that is currently ranked. The only three teams we played that were (and are) ranked, those would make up our three "L"s.

So all the arguments the nega-vols are tossing around lately about "we didn't beat anybody" would still be valid (if salty) complaints.

On the other hand, there are plenty of 3- and 4-loss teams ranked right now. Eight of them, in fact. A couple, like #8 Wisconsin and #12 Auburn, have some pretty big wins over quality, ranked opponents. We wouldn't be as highly-viewed as them.

But others have a body of work which looks a lot more like our October and November results. #14 Michigan, sort of: their three losses are to the best three teams of their conference, just like our losses to UGa, FL, and Bama. On the other hand, they did beat Notre Dame and Iowa, which are better wins than any we have. So maybe we wouldn't be as highly ranked as them...but we're in the general ballpark now.

Certainly we'd be ranked above #21 Cincinnati, whose best win was against 4-8 UCLA, plus some decent Group of 5 teams.

So, in this hypothetical, I think the Vols would have ended the regular season ranked in the #15-#20 range. We would be playing maybe Oklahoma State or someone else about that level. And we'd still be divided into Nega- and Sunshine- camps. Heh.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting enough hypothetical to mention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
If we were 9-3 we would still be in the Gator bowl. The Alabama loss to Auburn destroyed our chance at Tampa
 
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#4
#4
VFL-82-JP said:
I tend not to do hypotheticals, because they tend to be misunderstood. But this one is really interesting. So I'll just be careful how I describe it.

First, this is NOT a "we really shoulda" thread. Nor is it a "we really coulda" thread. I'm not feeding the negavols, nor am I feeding any revisionist history. We lost to Ga State and BYU (as the negas have been all too happy to point out over, and over, and over, and over again), and nothing changes that. Not taking credit for anything we didn't do. Not denying anything we did do. This isn't about either of those things.

But I think all of us who are being honest will acknowledge that we have a significantly different team than we had in early September. Not just growth throughout the season, that happens for most teams. No, this was a sea change that occurred right around the time of the Florida loss and that widely-reported meeting between Jeremy and the lads, just them. Something changed that day. A few fellas who might not have been on board left the team, others maybe got pushed into the back seat, while the majority of our squad came together as a solid team for the first time in ... years? It has been a while.

And so here's the hypothetical: where does today's team stand in the SEC, and in the national rankings, if we had been all along the team we are today? If we'd been the team who went 9-3 instead of 7-5?

One big note up front: we still wouldn't have beaten any team that is currently ranked. The only three teams we played that were (and are) ranked, those would make up our three "L"s.

So all the arguments the nega-vols are tossing around lately about "we didn't beat anybody" would still be valid (if salty) complaints.

On the other hand, there are plenty of 3- and 4-loss teams ranked right now. Eight of them, in fact. A couple, like #8 Wisconsin and #12 Auburn, have some pretty big wins over quality, ranked opponents. We wouldn't be as highly-viewed as them.

But others have a body of work which looks a lot more like our October and November results. #14 Michigan, sort of: their three losses are to the best three teams of their conference, just like our losses to UGa, FL, and Bama. On the other hand, they did beat Notre Dame and Iowa, which are better wins than any we have. So maybe we wouldn't be as highly ranked as them...but we're in the general ballpark now.

Certainly we'd be ranked above #21 Cincinnati, whose best win was against 4-8 UCLA, plus some decent Group of 5 teams.

So, in this hypothetical, I think the Vols would have ended the regular season ranked in the #15-#20 range. We would be playing maybe Oklahoma State or someone else about that level. And we'd still be divided into Nega- and Sunshine- camps. Heh.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting enough hypothetical to mention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Had we beat GA State and BYU we’d likely end the season ranked or very close to it.

Our record in the SEC would remain the same.

I don’t think we’d be any better of a squad than we are today.

Those losses may have been one of the big factors in this team gelling and working to become the team they are today...which is still a mediocre SEC team.

We’d probably be looking at a January loss in a bowl game.
 
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#6
#6
I agree. At 9-3 we would have 2 more wins against bowl eligible teams. I believe both finished 7-5 so they would still be 6-6. Based on SOS I would estimate around 17 as a ranking at 9-3. Those wins would also not change our position in the SEC but it would improve the quality of wins for the 3 teams that beat us. This would help Bama especially. Those 2 games might move us up to the Outback Bowl due to the win for Bama keeping them in the top 10 over a team like Penn St thus giving them a New Year's 6 bowl game "possibly". A Bama win over Auburn would have given the Vols a better SEC record than Auburn as well and in the hypopothetical an overall better record. In this scenario a 9-3 UT would be in the Citrus.
Since I believe the Vols would win both of those games with their current play and I believe Bama beats Auburn if Tua is a full go I feel comfortable thinking of the Vols not as the #34 team in the Coaches poll at 7-5 with 4 votes but as a top 25 caliber team based on play as of late and current momentum.
Also a fun hypothetical, the Vols would have beaten 6 bowl teams if they won the first 2 and Mizzou was not on probation.
But in reality 7-5 got us the Gator Bowl against IU. The Vols can go out with another win and be in prime position for a great 2020 run!

Go Vols
 
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#8
#8
All the breaks fell our way during our end of year stretch. I have no doubt If TN had won the first two (as we should have) we would have lost at least one down the stretch. In the end I think most realistic fans had TN at 7 wins, 8 max plus a bowl game. We got there, just not win the wins most “predicted.”
 
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#9
#9
VFL-82-JP said:
I tend not to do hypotheticals, because they tend to be misunderstood. But this one is really interesting. So I'll just be careful how I describe it.

First, this is NOT a "we really shoulda" thread. Nor is it a "we really coulda" thread. I'm not feeding the negavols, nor am I feeding any revisionist history. We lost to Ga State and BYU (as the negas have been all too happy to point out over, and over, and over, and over again), and nothing changes that. Not taking credit for anything we didn't do. Not denying anything we did do. This isn't about either of those things.

But I think all of us who are being honest will acknowledge that we have a significantly different team than we had in early September. Not just growth throughout the season, that happens for most teams. No, this was a sea change that occurred right around the time of the Florida loss and that widely-reported meeting between Jeremy and the lads, just them. Something changed that day. A few fellas who might not have been on board left the team, others maybe got pushed into the back seat, while the majority of our squad came together as a solid team for the first time in ... years? It has been a while.

And so here's the hypothetical: where does today's team stand in the SEC, and in the national rankings, if we had been all along the team we are today? If we'd been the team who went 9-3 instead of 7-5?

One big note up front: we still wouldn't have beaten any team that is currently ranked. The only three teams we played that were (and are) ranked, those would make up our three "L"s.

So all the arguments the nega-vols are tossing around lately about "we didn't beat anybody" would still be valid (if salty) complaints.

On the other hand, there are plenty of 3- and 4-loss teams ranked right now. Eight of them, in fact. A couple, like #8 Wisconsin and #12 Auburn, have some pretty big wins over quality, ranked opponents. We wouldn't be as highly-viewed as them.

But others have a body of work which looks a lot more like our October and November results. #14 Michigan, sort of: their three losses are to the best three teams of their conference, just like our losses to UGa, FL, and Bama. On the other hand, they did beat Notre Dame and Iowa, which are better wins than any we have. So maybe we wouldn't be as highly ranked as them...but we're in the general ballpark now.

Certainly we'd be ranked above #21 Cincinnati, whose best win was against 4-8 UCLA, plus some decent Group of 5 teams.

So, in this hypothetical, I think the Vols would have ended the regular season ranked in the #15-#20 range. We would be playing maybe Oklahoma State or someone else about that level. And we'd still be divided into Nega- and Sunshine- camps. Heh.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting enough hypothetical to mention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
MY gut was telling me around 15 before I read some of your research/ rationale. I think you are right and I would say in the 14-18 range. While we are discussing hypotheticals I will add this little nugget ( that goes both ways) IF we had won the GS and BYU games the team wouldn't have had to "find themselves" and spend so much time finding belief that they could win against the likes of the teams that subsequently beat us. Who knows where they might have been if they had started out of the gate 3-0 vs 1-2. Lets win the Bowl game and come out strong in 2020 GBO!
 
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#11
#11
I think we would be ranked if we had won either of our first two.

Did Clemson beat any ranked teams?
 
#14
#14
If the rabbit didn't stop to take a dump he would have won the race against the turtle.
 
#19
#19
I think that it was losing those first two, and the embarrassment of the situation, that helped light a fire under our guys. So maybe we win those two games, but don’t have enough in the “mental toughness” tank to beat the miss states and the South Carolinas. Just a theory, but I don’t think it’s as simple as thinking that the outcome of those two games didn’t change the trajectory of what happened late in the season.
 
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#20
#20
VFL-82-JP said:
I tend not to do hypotheticals, because they tend to be misunderstood. But this one is really interesting. So I'll just be careful how I describe it.

First, this is NOT a "we really shoulda" thread. Nor is it a "we really coulda" thread. I'm not feeding the negavols, nor am I feeding any revisionist history. We lost to Ga State and BYU (as the negas have been all too happy to point out over, and over, and over, and over again), and nothing changes that. Not taking credit for anything we didn't do. Not denying anything we did do. This isn't about either of those things.

But I think all of us who are being honest will acknowledge that we have a significantly different team than we had in early September. Not just growth throughout the season, that happens for most teams. No, this was a sea change that occurred right around the time of the Florida loss and that widely-reported meeting between Jeremy and the lads, just them. Something changed that day. A few fellas who might not have been on board left the team, others maybe got pushed into the back seat, while the majority of our squad came together as a solid team for the first time in ... years? It has been a while.

And so here's the hypothetical: where does today's team stand in the SEC, and in the national rankings, if we had been all along the team we are today? If we'd been the team who went 9-3 instead of 7-5?

One big note up front: we still wouldn't have beaten any team that is currently ranked. The only three teams we played that were (and are) ranked, those would make up our three "L"s.

So all the arguments the nega-vols are tossing around lately about "we didn't beat anybody" would still be valid (if salty) complaints.

On the other hand, there are plenty of 3- and 4-loss teams ranked right now. Eight of them, in fact. A couple, like #8 Wisconsin and #12 Auburn, have some pretty big wins over quality, ranked opponents. We wouldn't be as highly-viewed as them.

But others have a body of work which looks a lot more like our October and November results. #14 Michigan, sort of: their three losses are to the best three teams of their conference, just like our losses to UGa, FL, and Bama. On the other hand, they did beat Notre Dame and Iowa, which are better wins than any we have. So maybe we wouldn't be as highly ranked as them...but we're in the general ballpark now.

Certainly we'd be ranked above #21 Cincinnati, whose best win was against 4-8 UCLA, plus some decent Group of 5 teams.

So, in this hypothetical, I think the Vols would have ended the regular season ranked in the #15-#20 range. We would be playing maybe Oklahoma State or someone else about that level. And we'd still be divided into Nega- and Sunshine- camps. Heh.

Anyway, I thought it was an interesting enough hypothetical to mention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Too long and didn't read. But with this topic, everyone in the country knows this current Vols squad should be 9-3.... That is the perception. However, we are 7-5 with a 5 game winning streak. I think winning the bowl game is the first and most important way to close out recruiting with some flips and surprises and finish with a Top15 class. I really believe that.

I also think that if we finish 8-5 and finish strong in crootin, we will likely be ranked by the time we roll into Norman vs OU.

So the perception is that we should be a 10-3 team instead of 8-5.... Sadly the record doesn't reflect that. But winning this bowl game is arguably the most important thing that must happen this postseason and offseason.
 
#22
#22
Volstylexx said:
All the breaks fell our way during our end of year stretch. I have no doubt If TN had won the first two (as we should have) we would have lost at least one down the stretch. In the end I think most realistic fans had TN at 7 wins, 8 max plus a bowl game. We got there, just not win the wins most “predicted.”
Click to expand...
Right. I had us at 7-5 before the season. Figured FL, GA, and Bama were losses. Mizzou, uscjr, and miss state toss-ups. This season was one hell of a surprise. I remember the talking heads said the Vols would surprise people. Boy did we! Lol
 
#24
#24
JMSqb11 said:
Too long and didn't read. But with this topic, everyone in the country knows this current Vols squad should be 9-3.... That is the perception. However, we are 7-5 with a 5 game winning streak. I think winning the bowl game is the first and most important way to close out recruiting with some flips and surprises and finish with a Top15 class. I really believe that.

I also think that if we finish 8-5 and finish strong in crootin, we will likely be ranked by the time we roll into Norman vs OU.

So the perception is that we should be a 10-3 team instead of 8-5.... Sadly the record doesn't reflect that. But winning this bowl game is arguably the most important thing that must happen this postseason and offseason.
Click to expand...

Tl;Dr.

I can't imagine it would be worth reading since you really don't know what you're responding to.
 
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