Win Total for season

How many wins in 2020 to feel like program is moving in a positive direction?


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#1

Neyland Law Vol

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#1
With ESPN FPI giving TN more than a 50% chance to win only 3 games this season, and predicting in 7 games we have less than a 50% chance to win, I am interested in what fan's expectations are for this season. The typical record expectations have to be thrown out because this is a 10 game SEC slate with no 3 or 4 OOC games to pad the win total. We face 5 teams in the top 13 in the preseason poll (before other conferences were removed). I am thinking 6-4 and I will be feeling really good about the direction of the program. That would mean we got one big upset against a preseason top 13 team and beat everyone else we were supposed to and the toss up games. For reference below is the ESPN FPI.

Also, SDS predicts only 4 wins for TN. Predicting every SEC team’s final record for 2020

What do you feel is reasonable to expect to feel like the program is still moving in the right direction?
 
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#4
#4
If we are as far along as vols fan believe we are..then 8 wins should be the minimum expectation.....7 in season and a bowl win....anything less then 5-5 and CJP is in the hot seat.....
 
#5
#5
Here is the FPI again for reference:

USC - 46.8%
Missouri - 66.2
Georgia - 9.7
KY - 48.1
ALA - 7.0
Ark - 61.1
Tex A&M - 31.2
AUB - 12.1
Vandy - 80.6
FL - 20.0

Vegas has a far different opinion. Who do you trust more?

If we play 10 games without major COVID issues, then I'd like to see 6 Ws to feel good about the future.

Id also want to see competent Red Zone play, the OL playing to the sum of its parts, starting off the season better, and much better at beginning/end of halves. That would make me feel better about the future too...
 
#9
#9
ESPN FPI has been accurate for the vols the past two seasons. From 24/7:

Before you scoff at the FPI, consider it's preseason accuracy with the Vols the past two seasons. In 2018, it gave Tennessee a better than 50% chance of winning five games and the Vols went 5-7 with only the Auburn win and Vanderbilt going against the grain. FPI's preseason projected win total for Tennessee in 2019 was 7.6 and the Vols, who were given better than a 50% chance of winning in nine games, won seven in the regular season despite losing their first two games as big favorites.
 
#11
#11
Before all the contact tracing garage I really thought 6-4 at the minimum. Vandy, Arkansas, and Mizzou are really the super highly provable wins now. I still think we beat Kentucky because well they're Kentucky. Alabama, UF and GA will be tough. The rest is all toss ups, SC being a toss up because it's the first game. I'll say 5-5 and it would hard to complain about it too much giving the circumstances
 
#14
#14
So if we go 2-8 or 3-7 you fine with that????

The answer is "It Depends"

It depends, if we go 3-7 and we are decimated by COVID, then I would be understanding.

If we go 2-8 without being decimated by COVID and we have the same glaring issues we saw in 2018 and 2019, then the hot seat talk is justified.
 
#18
#18
Anything less than seven wins will be disappointing to me personally, doesn't mean the program is necessarily in the crapper, but still disappointing.
Can i ask why? 7 wins is equal to 10 under the old schedule (adding back the three layup games plus 7 SEC wins). Would it have taken 10 wins under the old schedule for you to avoid disappointment? I was hoping for 6 SEC wins (9 win regular season) under the old Schedule.
 
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#19
#19
Worth noting, on Sunday night Pruitt was on "the Nation" radio show and said he thought this season with an all SEC schedule would be like the NFL in a sense that you see 9-7 and 8-8 teams make the playoffs. Thus, I think this was his subtle way to say he sees 5-5 or 6-4 are still good seasons.
 
#20
#20
Can i ask why? 7 wins is equal to 10 under the old schedule (adding back the three layup games plus 7 SEC wins). Would it have taken 10 wins under the old schedule for you to avoid disappointment? I was hoping for 6 SEC wins (9 win regular season) under the old Schedule.

Because anything less than 7 wins almost assuredly means you aren't even in the hunt for the conference championship. 6 wins or less doesn't necessarily mean you have a bad football team, but it does mean you aren't close to prime time. 7 wins while possible probably doesn't put you in the SEC Championship game either, but it does mean you are contending.

Plus less than 7 wins most likely means we have lost to Bama, UF and UGA yet again and that is just disappointing to me no matter how you slice it.
 
#22
#22
As far as a computer ratings go ESPN’s is one of the best. People need to understand the point of a computer rating and it’s limitations
No doubt. The problem though with early computations is that there is very little data. All of these numbers change greatly if TN wins the 1st 2 handily and somehow upsets the Dawgs in game3. Those computer numbers probably still have Ga State and BYU from last year factored in and I believe we're a totally different team than we were the 1st 4 games of last year. I think we flip a bunch of these numbers if we simply win the 1st game.
 
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#23
#23
Can i ask why? 7 wins is equal to 10 under the old schedule (adding back the three layup games plus 7 SEC wins). Would it have taken 10 wins under the old schedule for you to avoid disappointment? I was hoping for 6 SEC wins (9 win regular season) under the old Schedule.

Assuming nothing crazy with COVID....

I think anything less than 5 is a major disappointment. 5 is just blah and treads water. 6 you are getting a little traction and 7 or more would be a major success.
 
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#24
#24
No doubt. The problem though with early computations is that there is very little data. All of these numbers change greatly if TN wins the 1st 2 handily and somehow upsets the Dawgs in game3. Those computer numbers probably still have Ga State and BYU from last year factored in and I believe we're a totally different team than we were the 1st 4 games of last year. I think we flip a bunch of these numbers if we simply win the 1st game.
Yeah there’s some randomness in it, no doubt. It’s a random sport. It’s one of my complaints that the FPI assigns such precise percentages. 46.8%? Really? It suggest there’s actually significance in that number when based on the inputs there’s really a high degree of error.
 
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