nicksjuzunk
Coming home soon.
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True story time... This time last week, I was literally thinking about beginning this thread with a "50 Cent Drive Off" GIF and leaving it at that. Then, rather suddenly, one of these teams beat Florida and the other lost to South Carolina, and none of the math worked... AT ALL. It was like rolling up to the traffic light in your Dodge Challenger Hellcat and some guy rolls up in a dusty 87' Totoya Corolla, champagne color, of course, and gives the "you wanna go?" nod as "Let Her Cry" rattles on the stock speakers that split 30 years ago. "LOL... sure bud." You hit it on double greens, releasing a fury of burning rubber and smoke and somehow, that stock Corolla with $18.97 hubcaps from Wal-mart is peeling away into the night and you are left in confusion, despair and the image of the boxy tail lights fading into the horizon. So, here we are. This has become a very weird game to predict. Tennessee has lost their star QB and the chance for the playoffs and Vandy needs this game to reach bowl eligibility. For one team, it's just another game, and for another team, it's everything. In spite of the talent gap, how a team approaches a game like this matters a ton. Just ask the Tennessee team that lost to Kentucky with a WR at QB in the Dooley era. What Vols team will show up? The most recent, or the one that has laid waste to every team not named "Georgia". Heck if I know. Let's have a look.
Keys to Victory:
1. Find your "Why": If Tennessee doesn't see the point in playing this game, it is over already. Even a few who decide to coast into a bowl game in which they don't care where they go is enough to poison the pot. This is a big test for Heupel as a coach. The honeymoon is over and this is really the first taste of adversity after that time period. Can he rally the troops to take the fight to Vandy? He must.
2. Milton's Team: This team has belonged to Hendon Hooker for over a year, and in one play, it passed rather suddenly to big Joe, and it's his era, starting last week now. Milton has honestly looked great when he has played this year. His long ball accuracy has tightened up, he is running decisively with authority and he clearly has the respect of his teammates, patiently waiting for his opportunity. I see two areas for growth based on the most recent history... not rifling every pass into the WR and the speed with rich he reads the defense and runs the offense. I think he can be solid, at the least, in both areas, but Hooker had dialed this in to another level. This is Joe's opportunity to cement himself as the QB and he needs to get it done.
3. Run to Bomb: Vandy has a good pass defense but struggles against the run. The game plan is simple. Make them stop the run, and if they cannot, you run it 75% of the time. More likely, it will be shaded more in the 60/40% range as they draw the defense in with the running game to set up the pass. Milton needs to take care of the ball. We are quite spoiled with Hooker's TD/INT ratio. That's not normal. An INT per game is kind of normal.
4. Do you Even Defense, Bro?: Last week's defense was one of the most horrific displays of football seen under the sun since Sal Sunseri idioted himself all over our program. It was awful in every way against a team that was awful in almost every way. I don't need to tell you that you can't give up a touchdown on 9/10 drives and expect to win. For the love of Todd (Kelly Jr.), please assemble something that resembles a football defense and not a toilet paper curtain in the shower.
5. Wrong the Wright: I can give you stats about Wright, but just see point #4. Seriously though, he's mobile, and carved up KY, but isn't fantastic as a passer. The Tennessee secondary is where Quarterbacks go to set record though...except Will Levis. #1 Heisman Draft Award Pick Man Guy Winner only passed for like 94 yards, but we still get media articles about him being a top 2 quarterback. I'm not the brightest star in the sky, but sometimes you really just wonder who is really getting too much corn from a jar. Anyways, Ray Davis is a solid RB, averaging over 100 yards per game over the last 3 in SEC play, but that's not so much my concern. It's about having QB Mike Wright rocket past Will Levis on NFL draft boards after this game.
Prediction: You've got a better chance of successfully milking a bull than making a logical prediction on this game. It has nothing to do with talent or scheme. It has 100% to do with putting in the work to win and execution. If Tennessee does that, they will win by 20+. If they don't they just might lose. I think we lean on the run game, and as a result, don't hit our normal scoring average. It will be a lower scoring game, but I think Heupel brings a team ready to play.
TN 35
Vandy 17
