Is it true all the money is coming in on Tennessee to cover, but they aren't moving the line?

#1
KnoxRealtorVOL

KnoxRealtorVOL

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#1
I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?
 
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#3
#3
KnoxRealtorVOL said:
I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?
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I do not believe Vegas works that way. The want the money to be even. The key to being "the house" in gambling is to not gamble.
 
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#7
#7
KnoxRealtorVOL said:
I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?
Click to expand...


Vegas still isn't sold on us as a legit top 5 team. It's why our odds to win the national title are the 9th best. They think the public is overvaluing us. Usually when Vegas takes a side they're on the right side. But they aren't infallible. There are times the public destroys them. This will be one of those times. Look for Vegas to catch on after this game if we easily cover.
 
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#8
#8
Oklahoma's getting five players back, including some OL and what they say is their best wide receiver, and they're playing at home. Oddsmakers are still getting that Tennessee money and are okay with it, so they must think Oklahoma's got a better chance with the injury returns.

If this causes anyone discomfort, remember that the line going into Tennessee-LSU in 2022 was -1.5 for the Vols.

I won't remind you what the final score was. I know you all know.
 
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#9
#9
TNBV said:
What I mean to say is if there were money coming in on one side they would move the line.
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Well that's the case MOST of the time, but not always. If Vegas is convinced all the money coming in is wrong, they will hold the line and let people make the wrong bet.

Now full disclosure, I saw this info about money still coming in on Tennessee on an Oklahoma message board, so it could be completely false. I just didn't know if there was a way to see if it's true or not.

But if it is true, it means Vegas is pretty dang sure we don't cover that spread, and that's alarming.
 
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#12
#12
KnoxRealtorVOL said:
But if it is true, it means Vegas is pretty dang sure we don't cover that spread, and that's alarming.
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Not necessarily. Vegas could just be hung up on their preseason expectations for us. Sometimes betters can get the better of Vegas early in a season when teams vastly over or under-perform their preseason expectations. I think after we beat Oklahoma decisively Vegas will change their outlook on us. Right now they still think we're a fringe playoff contender rather than a surefire top 5 national title contender. And that's why they're holding firm despite an avalanche of money on Tennessee.
 
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#13
#13
KnoxRealtorVOL said:
Well that's the case MOST of the time, but not always. If Vegas is convinced all the money coming in is wrong, they will hold the line and let people make the wrong bet.

Now full disclosure, I saw this info about money still coming in on Tennessee on an Oklahoma message board, so it could be completely false. I just didn't know if there was a way to see if it's true or not.

But if it is true, it means Vegas is pretty dang sure we don't cover that spread, and that's alarming.
Click to expand...
According to USA Today, 3 days ago, 67% of the money was on Tennessee to cover.
 
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#14
#14
TNBV said:
I do not believe Vegas works that way. The want the money to be even. The key to being "the house" in gambling is to not gamble.
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Not true. They want to make money. They have an internal line, and while lopsided betting exposes them in a single game, over the long term they make a lot more money by getting the public to bet on bad lines.
 
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#15
#15
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Not necessarily. Vegas could just be hung up on their preseason expectations for us. Sometimes betters can get the better of Vegas early in a season when teams vastly over or under-perform their preseason expectations. I think after we beat Oklahoma decisively Vegas will change their outlook on us. Right now they still think we're a fringe playoff contender rather than a surefire top 5 national title contender. And that's why they're holding firm despite an avalanche of money on Tennessee.
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I th think this assessment is on the money. I think if we do what I and many others expect, which is dog fight in Q1, make adjustments and pull ahead in Q2 and then begin to pull away in the 3rd and boat race in the 4th - then Vegas will consider us legit going forward and we will no longer get under valued. That’s why I put money in this early season because late I think they will have priced the risk more accurately.
 
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#17
#17
TNBV said:
I do not believe Vegas works that way. The want the money to be even. The key to being "the house" in gambling is to not gamble.
Click to expand...

That is an old assumption that Vegas wants the money even. Vegas wants to win every game, they are not in it just for the juice. You never know what tricks the Sportsbooks play with the Line Moves. Many times the line moves or lack thereof are designed to make you think, throw you off what you know. And It's working here. Just checked, and the action is still 80% on UT @ -7. The only way I see Okie in this game is to outsmart UT. But it is their Super Bowl thus far and at their place. Vegas was happy to hold the line with App St/USA last night,, and take all the App St $$$$. Because Joe Public loves the home team & favorite.
 
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#19
#19
OU getting 22% of the bets 58% of the money as of this morning
 

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#20
#20
I don’t feel good about this game to be honest. I can’t shake the feeling that I know exactly how it will go. Dink and dunk passes to the side swallowed up immediately because this defense will be wiser and faster than what we have been up against this year. No YAC at will. No separation created for deep balls. Run game will be grinding for every yard it gets. Our defense might be alright, but I just think we will struggle offensively. Don’t know why, but just a feeling I have. Their coach will have them ready. He is very knowledgeable about our team.
 
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#21
#21
BruiserVol said:
I don’t feel good about this game to be honest. I can’t shake the feeling that I know exactly how it will go. Dink and dunk passes to the side swallowed up immediately because this defense will be wiser and faster than what we have been up against this year. No YAC at will. No separation created for deep balls. Run game will be grinding for every yard it gets. Our defense might be alright, but I just think we will struggle offensively. Don’t know why, but just a feeling I have. Their coach will have them ready. He is very knowledgeable about our team.
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I am in your camp on this. Just read a comparison article that said OU's DC is big on stopping the run which I think they will slow it down a lot but that also opens up the passing for Nico IF the receivers can get the separation needed. Think Vols win but going to go into 4th qtr before they put some distance between them and OU.

Of course I hope I am 100% wrong.
 
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