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Tennessee is well worth into the playoff discussion with an 8-1 record and 3 games left. I decided to go ahead and create a current playoff guide. There is only one "assumption" I will make and that is 9-3 and you are out. With how the Big Ten has broken out and the amount of 1 or 2 loss teams in the SEC, I can't imagine that Tennessee can get in at 9-3 with losses to Arkansas, Georgia and Vanderbilt. Alright, let's break it down.
Easiest path to the playoff: Win Out- This seems self explanatory but if Tennessee wins their remaining 3 games, they would be in the SEC title game and then if they win the SEC title game they are automatically in the playoff with most likely the #1 or #2 seed.
Almost guaranteed path to the playoff- 11-2 with an SEC title game loss. Tennessee would probably have a 99% chance of getting in if they won their 3 regular season games but loss in the SEC title game. I can't imagine a scenario where Tennessee gets left out unless there were four 1 loss Big Ten teams, a 11-1 Notre Dame and a 12-1 BYU with a B12 title loss. And even then Tennessee should get that last at large spot.
I'm glad I'm not the committee- 10-3 with an SEC title game loss: This would be interesting. It's not impossible for Tennessee to lose to Georgia and get in the SEC title game even though they would need a ton of help (I don't even want to get into the tiebreakers, it's a mess). At that point, then all chaos would ensue and we would see if the committee views 10-3>10-2. Would 10-3 Tennessee get in over 10-2 Ole Miss or an 11-2 at large Miami? I have no clue.
Most likely scenario- 10-2: This makes the most sense. Tennessee loses to Georgia, then Texas plays someone in the SEC title game. Then at that point we would see what happens. Tennessee holds the head to head over Alabama so they should get in over them if that's the final spot. Would Tennessee get in at 10-2 over 10-3 Georgia for example? Or 10-3 Texas? I would have my doubts.
Not let's get in the fun stuff, the other teams.
1. Notre Dame REALLY REALLY REALLY needs to lose: Notre Dame is currently 8-1 and should be double digit point favorites against Virginia, Army and USC (on the road). Even though they have the worst loss by anyone in contention to 5-4 Northern Illinois at home (Ole Miss at home vs UK a close second), 11-1 would pretty much ensure a playoff berth based off their current ranking. Now, I'm pretty confident 11-2 with SEC title loss>11-1 Notre Dame but at 10-2 it gets dicey. Notre Dame doesn't have much of a signature win (right now their best win is against Louisville, then the service academies if they beat Army) but we understand the sway Notre Dame has in the CFP room. And since they can't win an auto bid, they would have to take an at-large spot. Notre Dame getting upset would basically clear an at large spot for a 10-2 SEC team. Instead of 4 teams, the SEC would probably get 5.
2. Can we get two combined losses between Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State?: Ohio State and Indiana play in two weeks so that's one loss. It's hard to say who Vol fans should cheer for, but it's probably Indiana. That would put Ohio State at 9-2 playing Michigan and would basically eliminate them in the B10 title game. Would their resume be better than Tennessee's? You're playing a guessing game but my feelings would be 11-1 Indiana gets in over Tennessee (and the committee has Indiana at 10-0 ahead of 8-1 Tennessee). What would really help is a second loss. Penn State plays @Purdue, @Minnesota and vs Maryland. Ohio State finishes with @Northwestern, vs. Indiana and vs Michigan. Indiana finishes @Ohio State and vs Purdue. If somebody can pull off an upset, that increases Tennessee's chances to get in the playoff. I feel like 10-2 Tennessee>10-2 Penn State with a loss to one of those 3 B10 teams. I feel confident saying an 11-2 B10 title game loser gets in no matter what.
3. The Miami, Pitt and Iowa State losses were massive: These were huge breaks for Tennessee. I don't think a 11-2 Miami team with a ACC title game loss gets in. If Miami was 12-1 with an ACC title game loss they most likely would have gotten in. Iowa State with 2 losses should eliminate any at large possibility for them. Same with Pittsburgh. SMU is still lurking and they are ranked 13, so the committee respects them. Would they get in at 11-2 with losses to BYU and Miami if they played in the ACC title game over 10-2 Tennessee? I don't think so but we don't know yet. And Clemson is looming with just 2 losses. Either way, cheer against SMU and Clemson the next few weeks, then for Miami in the ACC title game.
4. Cheer for BYU to win the Big 12 at 12-1 or 13-0: This might seem a little odd but this would be the best case. That would eliminate any sort of issues of BYU getting an at large spot at 12-1 if they were upset in the Big 12 title game. If they went 11-2, then that would leave it in the committee's hands and in year 1 we don't know where they will lean. Remember, doesn't matter if Iowa State or Colorado is 10-3 with a bad resume, they get in if they win the B12 title game. The less 12-1 at large teams the better. That's Tennessee kryptonite for a playoff spot.
5. Breaking down the SEC: Let's assume chalk and Notre Dame/Indiana/Penn State go 11-1. Ohio State wins out in the regular season and plays 12-0 Oregon in the B1G title game. BYU and Miami win their conferences. That would mean 3 at large spots for the SEC (3 B10 teams, Notre Dame). Right now, 7 teams in the SEC have 1 or 2 losses. Georgia losing absolutely threw things into chaos. Thanks to Greg Sankey's infallible genius of playing 8 conference games, there's only 2 games of these 7 teams the last 3 weeks: Tenn @ UGA and then Texas @ TAMU. If Tennessee beats Georgia, then UGA will be out. If Texas beats TAMU, then TAMU would be out. If UGA/TAMU won and chalk hold, we could be looking at 7 teams in the SEC with matching 10-2 records. Based off what the committee has done, Missouri has the most work to do. Their best win is OT against Vanderbilt at home and they've lost 75-10 in their two losses. So pray for a couple of upsets. Or pray Tennessee beats Georgia, one of the 2.
SEC Games To Watch (Not Including the Tenn/UGA or Texas/TAMU games)
1. Texas @ Arkansas (11/16)- Cheer for Arky
2. Missouri @ South Carolina (11/16)- Cheer for South Carolina
3. Ole Miss @ Florida (11/23)- Cheer for Florida
4. Kentucky @ Texas (11/23)- Cheer for Kentucky
5. Texas A&M @ Auburn (11/23)- Cheer for Auburn
6. Missouri @ Miss State (11/23)- Cheer for Miss State
7 Alabama @ Oklahoma (11/23)- Cheer for Oklahoma
8. Georgia Tech @ Georgia (11/30)- Cheer for Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas @ Missouri (11/30)- Cheer for Arky
10. Auburn @ Alabama (11/30)- Cheer for Auburn
The Five Biggest Non-SEC Teams To Cheer Against
1. Notre Dame
2. Penn State
3. SMU
4. Indiana
5. Clemson
Easiest path to the playoff: Win Out- This seems self explanatory but if Tennessee wins their remaining 3 games, they would be in the SEC title game and then if they win the SEC title game they are automatically in the playoff with most likely the #1 or #2 seed.
Almost guaranteed path to the playoff- 11-2 with an SEC title game loss. Tennessee would probably have a 99% chance of getting in if they won their 3 regular season games but loss in the SEC title game. I can't imagine a scenario where Tennessee gets left out unless there were four 1 loss Big Ten teams, a 11-1 Notre Dame and a 12-1 BYU with a B12 title loss. And even then Tennessee should get that last at large spot.
I'm glad I'm not the committee- 10-3 with an SEC title game loss: This would be interesting. It's not impossible for Tennessee to lose to Georgia and get in the SEC title game even though they would need a ton of help (I don't even want to get into the tiebreakers, it's a mess). At that point, then all chaos would ensue and we would see if the committee views 10-3>10-2. Would 10-3 Tennessee get in over 10-2 Ole Miss or an 11-2 at large Miami? I have no clue.
Most likely scenario- 10-2: This makes the most sense. Tennessee loses to Georgia, then Texas plays someone in the SEC title game. Then at that point we would see what happens. Tennessee holds the head to head over Alabama so they should get in over them if that's the final spot. Would Tennessee get in at 10-2 over 10-3 Georgia for example? Or 10-3 Texas? I would have my doubts.
Not let's get in the fun stuff, the other teams.
1. Notre Dame REALLY REALLY REALLY needs to lose: Notre Dame is currently 8-1 and should be double digit point favorites against Virginia, Army and USC (on the road). Even though they have the worst loss by anyone in contention to 5-4 Northern Illinois at home (Ole Miss at home vs UK a close second), 11-1 would pretty much ensure a playoff berth based off their current ranking. Now, I'm pretty confident 11-2 with SEC title loss>11-1 Notre Dame but at 10-2 it gets dicey. Notre Dame doesn't have much of a signature win (right now their best win is against Louisville, then the service academies if they beat Army) but we understand the sway Notre Dame has in the CFP room. And since they can't win an auto bid, they would have to take an at-large spot. Notre Dame getting upset would basically clear an at large spot for a 10-2 SEC team. Instead of 4 teams, the SEC would probably get 5.
2. Can we get two combined losses between Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State?: Ohio State and Indiana play in two weeks so that's one loss. It's hard to say who Vol fans should cheer for, but it's probably Indiana. That would put Ohio State at 9-2 playing Michigan and would basically eliminate them in the B10 title game. Would their resume be better than Tennessee's? You're playing a guessing game but my feelings would be 11-1 Indiana gets in over Tennessee (and the committee has Indiana at 10-0 ahead of 8-1 Tennessee). What would really help is a second loss. Penn State plays @Purdue, @Minnesota and vs Maryland. Ohio State finishes with @Northwestern, vs. Indiana and vs Michigan. Indiana finishes @Ohio State and vs Purdue. If somebody can pull off an upset, that increases Tennessee's chances to get in the playoff. I feel like 10-2 Tennessee>10-2 Penn State with a loss to one of those 3 B10 teams. I feel confident saying an 11-2 B10 title game loser gets in no matter what.
3. The Miami, Pitt and Iowa State losses were massive: These were huge breaks for Tennessee. I don't think a 11-2 Miami team with a ACC title game loss gets in. If Miami was 12-1 with an ACC title game loss they most likely would have gotten in. Iowa State with 2 losses should eliminate any at large possibility for them. Same with Pittsburgh. SMU is still lurking and they are ranked 13, so the committee respects them. Would they get in at 11-2 with losses to BYU and Miami if they played in the ACC title game over 10-2 Tennessee? I don't think so but we don't know yet. And Clemson is looming with just 2 losses. Either way, cheer against SMU and Clemson the next few weeks, then for Miami in the ACC title game.
4. Cheer for BYU to win the Big 12 at 12-1 or 13-0: This might seem a little odd but this would be the best case. That would eliminate any sort of issues of BYU getting an at large spot at 12-1 if they were upset in the Big 12 title game. If they went 11-2, then that would leave it in the committee's hands and in year 1 we don't know where they will lean. Remember, doesn't matter if Iowa State or Colorado is 10-3 with a bad resume, they get in if they win the B12 title game. The less 12-1 at large teams the better. That's Tennessee kryptonite for a playoff spot.
5. Breaking down the SEC: Let's assume chalk and Notre Dame/Indiana/Penn State go 11-1. Ohio State wins out in the regular season and plays 12-0 Oregon in the B1G title game. BYU and Miami win their conferences. That would mean 3 at large spots for the SEC (3 B10 teams, Notre Dame). Right now, 7 teams in the SEC have 1 or 2 losses. Georgia losing absolutely threw things into chaos. Thanks to Greg Sankey's infallible genius of playing 8 conference games, there's only 2 games of these 7 teams the last 3 weeks: Tenn @ UGA and then Texas @ TAMU. If Tennessee beats Georgia, then UGA will be out. If Texas beats TAMU, then TAMU would be out. If UGA/TAMU won and chalk hold, we could be looking at 7 teams in the SEC with matching 10-2 records. Based off what the committee has done, Missouri has the most work to do. Their best win is OT against Vanderbilt at home and they've lost 75-10 in their two losses. So pray for a couple of upsets. Or pray Tennessee beats Georgia, one of the 2.
SEC Games To Watch (Not Including the Tenn/UGA or Texas/TAMU games)
1. Texas @ Arkansas (11/16)- Cheer for Arky
2. Missouri @ South Carolina (11/16)- Cheer for South Carolina
3. Ole Miss @ Florida (11/23)- Cheer for Florida
4. Kentucky @ Texas (11/23)- Cheer for Kentucky
5. Texas A&M @ Auburn (11/23)- Cheer for Auburn
6. Missouri @ Miss State (11/23)- Cheer for Miss State
7 Alabama @ Oklahoma (11/23)- Cheer for Oklahoma
8. Georgia Tech @ Georgia (11/30)- Cheer for Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas @ Missouri (11/30)- Cheer for Arky
10. Auburn @ Alabama (11/30)- Cheer for Auburn
The Five Biggest Non-SEC Teams To Cheer Against
1. Notre Dame
2. Penn State
3. SMU
4. Indiana
5. Clemson
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