Playoff Projections

#1
U

UT97Vol

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#1
Edit (11/11) If Tenn loses this weekend and A&M beats Texas we don’t get in. If Texas wins and goes to SEC title game we’re in even with a loss. SEC gets five, Big 10 gets only two (because whoever wins our game moves ahead of Indiana in all rankings after they lose to OSU), and Boise is the fourth highest rated conference champ getting bye). It’s important for our chances that Texas defeat A&M.


Top Four (Byes)
1. Ohio St (believe they beat Oregon in rematch)
2. Alabama (I know this is going to make some of you cringe but Bama has the best chances in a multi team tie to make the SEC title game). I also believe they have unlocked something with the realization Milroe is a dual threat QB not a pocket passer). They beat A&M in the SEC title game).
3. Miami (still control their destiny and will beat SMU in the ACC title game).
4. Boise. ( Will be ranked higher than the Big 12 champ).

5 vs 12: Texas at Oregon

6 vs 11: Georgia @ Notre Dame (Irish jump Penn St on SOS.)

7 vs 10 A&M @ Penn St

8 vs 9 Colorado @ Ole Miss
 
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#2
#2
Umm did Penn State not make the playoffs?

And how does Texas and/or Texas A&M make the playoffs when one will lose next week? Unless this is an alternative way...
 
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#3
#3
UT97Vol said:
Playoff projections by media are pretty lame as they just go off current rankings. Here’s a different take. I didn’t study this hard but just based off what I’ve seen, can recall, and looking at schedules.

Top Four (Byes)
1. Ohio St (believe they beat Oregon in rematch)
2. Alabama (I know this is going to make some of you cringe but Bama has the best chances in a multi team tie to make the SEC title game). I also believe they have unlocked something with the realization Milroe is a dual threat QB not a pocket passer). They beat A&M in the SEC title game).
3. Miami (still control their destiny and will beat SMU in the ACC title game).
4. Colorado (Also control their destiny and squeak by BYU in Big 12 title game. BYU is further knocked after loss to Ariz St in Nov).

5 vs 12: Tennessee at Oregon (Since we’re dogs and for the sake of argument UGA gets by us but we still sneak in due to close loss. The iffy part is does 2 loss Tennessee get in over 1 loss Indiana? May depend on how bad OSU beats them and whether the committee can stomach six vs two SEC/Big 10 or if they have to have three to our five). It’s 50/50 here IMO but I think we come out one spot ahead of Indiana. If they are not ahead of us now there is no reason they should be ahead of us after losing to OSU).

6 vs 11: Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (Rematch: Irish jump Penn St on SOS. A&M is here because they beat Texas in last game but lose in the SEC title game).

7 vs 10: UGA @ Ole Miss (Rematch)

8 vs 9 Boise @ Texas (After all this chaos above Boise will not be the 12).

Thoughts? I know you got em.
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If Colorado upsets BYU, there’s a good chance that, in your scenario, you’re looking at Mountain West Champion 12-1 Boise State being higher ranked than Big 12 Champion Colorado…meaning they’d probably be looking at the final conference championship bye spot, not Colorado.
 
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#4
#4
LIvol said:
Umm did Penn State not make the playoffs?

And how does Texas and/or Texas A&M make the playoffs when one will lose next week? Unless this is an alternative way...
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Well darn. Thought I had them in there. Thus my three vs two comment ( re: Big10). Lends more credibility to our UGA game potentially being a knock out game.

As for Texas, if A&M beats them I assume they still get in. They’re not likely dropping outside of the top 10
 
#7
#7
Very little chance that a 1 loss Indiana and 1 loss Penn state aren’t in playoffs. They are getting a lot of love even tho their schedules are pretty pitiful. IF ut is 10-2, it will depend on who the committe favors between us and ole piss.
 
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#8
#8
dobre_shunka said:
I don't see the committe putting a 2 loss Tennessee team in the top 12. They seem focused on the Arkansas loss. Plus since a Heupel team isn't scoring 50+ per game, there is an attitude Tennessee isn't that good regardless of the record.
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^^^This. For some reason there is a ton of talk about an away loss at arky but little talk of an ole miss loss to ky at home. That is the way worse loss.
 
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#11
#11
dobre_shunka said:
I don't see the committe putting a 2 loss Tennessee team in the top 12. They seem focused on the Arkansas loss. Plus since a Heupel team isn't scoring 50+ per game, there is an attitude Tennessee isn't that good regardless of the record.
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Shot ourselves in the foot alot this year. No surprise we are looked at as not as good as some.
 
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#13
#13
UT97Vol said:
Well darn. Thought I had them in there. Thus my three vs two comment ( re: Big10). Lends more credibility to our UGA game potentially being a knock out game.

As for Texas, if A&M beats them I assume they still get in. They’re not likely dropping outside of the top 10
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If A&M beats Texas then they are out because of SOS. They do not have a single top 25 win. They will drop to 15 or below.
 
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#14
#14
Redleg68 said:
If A&M beats Texas then they are out because of SOS. They do not have a single top 25 win. They will drop to 15 or below.
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You think so? They’re going to be #3 - and you think they would fall 12 places? Seems highly unlikely.

A problem for the committee is going to be if you have a bunch of SEC teams at 10-2 - one is just as worthy or not as the next one.
 
#17
#17
UT97Vol said:
You think so? They’re going to be #3 - and you think they would fall 12 places? Seems highly unlikely.

A problem for the committee is going to be if you have a bunch of SEC teams at 10-2 - one is just as worthy or not as the next one.
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and Texas would be about number 5 or 6 on SOS in that group. They would not have a single eye test win. Texas has been over rated all year in speculation of talent. They are yet to prove themselves in a marquee game. Yes if AM beats then there will be a huge adjustment to their over ranking. If they beat AM they are in regardless of how the SEC championship game turns out. Again this is just my opinion.
 
#18
#18
Yanks24 said:
Very little chance that a 1 loss Indiana and 1 loss Penn state aren’t in playoffs. They are getting a lot of love even tho their schedules are pretty pitiful. IF ut is 10-2, it will depend on who the committe favors between us and ole piss.
Click to expand...

A 1 loss Indiana team more than likely does not get in unless it shocks people. They play 1 ranked team all year, and if they lose that game to Ohio State their schedule is abysmal. They are in the Big 10 so there is no excuse like if they were a group of 5 team.

The one scenario I see is a close loss to Ohio State which Ohio State gets overvalued every year.
 
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#19
#19
BreatheUT said:
A 1 loss Indiana team more than likely does not get in unless it shocks people. They play 1 ranked team all year, and if they lose that game to Ohio State their schedule is abysmal. They are in the Big 10 so there is no excuse like if they were a group of 5 team.

The one scenario I see is a close loss to Ohio State which Ohio State gets overvalued every year.
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Can someone give me a explanation of PSU vs IU? They both have very light schedules outside of OSU which might very well be losses. Neither plays Oregon, or each other. I guess some wins are larger then the other but even the Out of conference schedule is not great....just make it make sense
 
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#21
#21
LIvol said:
Can someone give me a explanation of PSU vs IU? They both have very light schedules outside of OSU which might very well be losses. Neither plays Oregon, or each other. I guess some wins are larger then the other but even the Out of conference schedule is not great....just make it make sense
Click to expand...

State Penn is the most undeserving in the playoff picture. If this many big 10 teams get in the playoff, I hope they get absolutely embarrassed. Run out of the stadium. Atleast Indiana puts up points against questionable competition.
 
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#22
#22
LIvol said:
Can someone give me an explanation of PSU vs IU? They both have very light schedules outside of OSU which might very well be losses. Neither plays Oregon, or each other. I guess some wins are larger then the other but even the Out of conference schedule is not great....just make it make sense
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Welcome to the clown show that is our dumb playoff system.
 
#23
#23
There will not be 5 SEC teams in the playoff…things will have to fall just right to get 4 SEC teams in.

The first 4 seeds are automatic and will go to the 4 highest ranked conference champions - almost guaranteed to the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 champions. Upsets might happen but my guesses right now are Texas, Miami, Ohio State and BYU.

The last automatic seed goes to 5th highest ranked conference champion and that will most likely be the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA. Right now it looks like Boise State will get that automatic bid and be seeded 12th.

Notre Damn (😂) gets one of the seven open seeds and the remains six are split evenly between the SEC and Big 10.
 
#24
#24
LIvol said:
Can someone give me a explanation of PSU vs IU? They both have very light schedules outside of OSU which might very well be losses. Neither plays Oregon, or each other. I guess some wins are larger then the other but even the Out of conference schedule is not great....just make it make sense
Click to expand...

They both have equally weak schedules but Penn State has been lingering in the top 10 all year and has name recognition so that is the only difference I see.

Edit: Penn State plays the #5, #6, #7, and #8 teams in the Big 10 as of today. Indiana doesn't play any of those. That is weak.
 
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#25
#25
It looks as if everyone expects us to lose to the Dogs! If we aren’t good enough to beat a 2 loss team , there is no reason to go to the playoffs and lose again!!
 
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