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Tennessee lost. That's the bad news. Had they won (and assuming they took care of business against Vandy) then UT would have had been guaranteed a spot. That did not happen unfortunately and now it's out of Tennessee's hands. I have noticed, whether fair or not, there seemed to be some anti-UT bias against getting in the playoffs which I will later discuss. I'll try not to repeat myself too much from last week.
1. Go Army & USC- The absolute biggest thing that can help Tennessee is a Notre Dame loss. Right now, at 9-1, Notre Dame is squarely in the playoff. At 10-2 with no conference title game and a bad loss to Northern Illinois, that would put them out of the playoff. Tennessee did get a little bit of help with Louisville losing because that was a top 25 win for Notre Dame. That won't be on their resume now. But with TAMU's success they still have that. However, I don't see them getting in above an SEC school if they are 10-2 with the worst loss among the playoff bubble teams. A Notre Dame loss exponentially increases Tennessee's playoff odds.
2. (Pukes typing the words) Ohio State needs to beat Indiana by 90- This is very important as well. Indiana's strength of schedule is currently 100. Their best win is a 31-17 win against 6-5 Washington. If they lose by a significant margin (something like 45-10, 38-7) then they should drop significantly and I think, even with the committee ranking Indiana ahead of Tennessee this week, that would put Indiana behind the 8 ball. It would be a 50/50 proposition. But the worst thing is an Indiana win or a super close game for media purposes (because 10-2 Ohio State is getting in no matter what). They're a cute story, they committee would feel empowered and it would send a message that "anybody can get in!" to increase the ratings. An Ohio State beatdown helps Tennessee.
3. Cheer for Texas or Texas A&M?- Good news is LSU and Missouri lost. That took LSU out of the conference champion race and Missouri from the 10-2 possibility. Right now the SEC title game would be Texas/Texas A&M vs Alabama because Alabama has the best conference opponents' win percentage. I think cheering for Texas A&M would be best against Texas for three reasons: 1) TAMU beating Texas but losing to Alabama in the SEC title game would have them at 10-3, which helps Tennessee. 2) Tennessee actually has a better resume than Texas. While Texas would have "better losses" they do not have Tennessee's win against Alabama. 3) If Bama won the SEC (again, puke) then that means Tennessee beat a top 4 CFP team, something Texas does not have. Now, would the committee factor in name recognition and preseason rankings and put Texas in anyways? Maybe! But I'll take the chance. Or would the committee say "**** it, put 5 SEC teams in and Indiana can get bent"? Also maybe! Or would the committee look at 10-3 Alabama and 10-2 Tennessee and say "Tennessee gets in they won the head to head"? I guess the argument against 10-3 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee with head to head would not work in Tennessee's favor with how many "quality" wins Alabama has. But I don't know. It's all stupid!
4. The ACC/Big 12- I still don't think an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 team is getting in above a 10-2 SEC team, and BYU losing was good for Tennessee. I believe a 12-1 at large BYU would have gotten in over Tennessee. Now it looks like the Big 12 will be a one bid league, either BYU or Colorado. While I don't think Miami at 11-2 gets in above 10-2 Tennessee, I also can't guarantee that. 10-2 SMU facing 10-2 Clemson in the ACC title game would be the absolute best thing for the Vols, even if SMU and Miami both losing before the ACC title game is unlikely.
5. Whether fair or not, Tennessee is the 5th team if we see a bunch of 10 win SEC teams- Right now, with how the committee has talked about Tennessee and this talk of an "elimination game" against Georgia the media pushed, I think Tennessee is 5th in the SEC pecking order behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. I don't think that's really fair with how absolutely terrible Ole Miss' losses are (that loss to Kentucky is a travesty and the LSU loss looks worse and worse) but the media is treating Ole Miss beating Georgia as if they took down the 85' Bears. I still think there is some external pressure to not make this the SEC/B10 invitational. If Notre Dame, Penn State and Indiana go 11-1, with Texas/Bama at 11-2, then UGA/Ole Miss at 10-2, that leaves Tennessee out in the cold if Indiana keeps it close against Ohio State. If Alabama loses to Texas in the CFP and goes 10-3.........then all bets are off. I think Tennessee should still get in with the same amount of wins and head to head but I have a bad feeling that won't happen.
Remaining Schedules For Bubble Teams (Assuming Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and BYU get in)
Miami- Wake Forest, @Syracuse
Penn State- @Minnesota, vs. Maryland
Indiana- @Ohio State, vs. Purdue
Notre Dame- vs. Army (in New York), @USC
Ole Miss- @Florida, vs. Miss State
Georgia- vs UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Alabama- @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
SMU- @Virginia, vs. Cal
Texas A&M- @Auburn, vs Texas
1. Go Army & USC- The absolute biggest thing that can help Tennessee is a Notre Dame loss. Right now, at 9-1, Notre Dame is squarely in the playoff. At 10-2 with no conference title game and a bad loss to Northern Illinois, that would put them out of the playoff. Tennessee did get a little bit of help with Louisville losing because that was a top 25 win for Notre Dame. That won't be on their resume now. But with TAMU's success they still have that. However, I don't see them getting in above an SEC school if they are 10-2 with the worst loss among the playoff bubble teams. A Notre Dame loss exponentially increases Tennessee's playoff odds.
2. (Pukes typing the words) Ohio State needs to beat Indiana by 90- This is very important as well. Indiana's strength of schedule is currently 100. Their best win is a 31-17 win against 6-5 Washington. If they lose by a significant margin (something like 45-10, 38-7) then they should drop significantly and I think, even with the committee ranking Indiana ahead of Tennessee this week, that would put Indiana behind the 8 ball. It would be a 50/50 proposition. But the worst thing is an Indiana win or a super close game for media purposes (because 10-2 Ohio State is getting in no matter what). They're a cute story, they committee would feel empowered and it would send a message that "anybody can get in!" to increase the ratings. An Ohio State beatdown helps Tennessee.
3. Cheer for Texas or Texas A&M?- Good news is LSU and Missouri lost. That took LSU out of the conference champion race and Missouri from the 10-2 possibility. Right now the SEC title game would be Texas/Texas A&M vs Alabama because Alabama has the best conference opponents' win percentage. I think cheering for Texas A&M would be best against Texas for three reasons: 1) TAMU beating Texas but losing to Alabama in the SEC title game would have them at 10-3, which helps Tennessee. 2) Tennessee actually has a better resume than Texas. While Texas would have "better losses" they do not have Tennessee's win against Alabama. 3) If Bama won the SEC (again, puke) then that means Tennessee beat a top 4 CFP team, something Texas does not have. Now, would the committee factor in name recognition and preseason rankings and put Texas in anyways? Maybe! But I'll take the chance. Or would the committee say "**** it, put 5 SEC teams in and Indiana can get bent"? Also maybe! Or would the committee look at 10-3 Alabama and 10-2 Tennessee and say "Tennessee gets in they won the head to head"? I guess the argument against 10-3 Alabama vs. 10-2 Tennessee with head to head would not work in Tennessee's favor with how many "quality" wins Alabama has. But I don't know. It's all stupid!
4. The ACC/Big 12- I still don't think an 11-2 ACC or Big 12 team is getting in above a 10-2 SEC team, and BYU losing was good for Tennessee. I believe a 12-1 at large BYU would have gotten in over Tennessee. Now it looks like the Big 12 will be a one bid league, either BYU or Colorado. While I don't think Miami at 11-2 gets in above 10-2 Tennessee, I also can't guarantee that. 10-2 SMU facing 10-2 Clemson in the ACC title game would be the absolute best thing for the Vols, even if SMU and Miami both losing before the ACC title game is unlikely.
5. Whether fair or not, Tennessee is the 5th team if we see a bunch of 10 win SEC teams- Right now, with how the committee has talked about Tennessee and this talk of an "elimination game" against Georgia the media pushed, I think Tennessee is 5th in the SEC pecking order behind Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss. I don't think that's really fair with how absolutely terrible Ole Miss' losses are (that loss to Kentucky is a travesty and the LSU loss looks worse and worse) but the media is treating Ole Miss beating Georgia as if they took down the 85' Bears. I still think there is some external pressure to not make this the SEC/B10 invitational. If Notre Dame, Penn State and Indiana go 11-1, with Texas/Bama at 11-2, then UGA/Ole Miss at 10-2, that leaves Tennessee out in the cold if Indiana keeps it close against Ohio State. If Alabama loses to Texas in the CFP and goes 10-3.........then all bets are off. I think Tennessee should still get in with the same amount of wins and head to head but I have a bad feeling that won't happen.
Remaining Schedules For Bubble Teams (Assuming Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and BYU get in)
Miami- Wake Forest, @Syracuse
Penn State- @Minnesota, vs. Maryland
Indiana- @Ohio State, vs. Purdue
Notre Dame- vs. Army (in New York), @USC
Ole Miss- @Florida, vs. Miss State
Georgia- vs UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Alabama- @Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
SMU- @Virginia, vs. Cal
Texas A&M- @Auburn, vs Texas
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