Need SMU to win out for HOST I think.

#1
D

Dougie_D

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#1
The CFP just goes down the list of who's eligible next from their rankings based on who they think wins the CHAMP games.
For instance, here's how they ranked and then here's how they seeded with their projected playoff last week.
(X) means they won the champ
(O) means they loss the champ

1. ORE (X)
2. OSU (O)
3. TEXAS (X)
4. PENN ST
5. ND
6. MIAMI (X)
7. GA (O)
8. TN
9. SMU (O)
10. IND
11. BOISE ST(X)
12. CLEMSON
16. AZU (X)

Then this is how the rankings go after the PROJECTED. Georgia still gets nod because they were ahead of us in rankings.
1. ORE (X)
2. TEX (X)
3. MIAMI (X)
4. BOISE ST (X)
5. OSU
6.PENN ST
7. ND
8. GA
9. TN
10. SMU
11. IND
12. AZU (X)

Now let's say SMU moves up to #5, every champ becomes an upset , and we are at #7.
1. ORE (O)
2. TEXAS (0)
3. PENN ST(X)
4. ND
5. SMU(O)
6. GA (X)
7. TN
8.OSU
9. IND
10.BOISE ST (O)
11. SC
12. MIA
13. ASU (O)
16. CLEMSON (X)
17. B12 (X)
18. P5 (X)

How they might do seedings in this scenario: (SMU is ahead of us getting that 8 seed.)
1.PENN ST
2. GA
3. CLEMSON
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEXAS
7. ND
8. SMU
9. TN
10. OSU
11. IND
12. G5

Now lets say SMU wins but there's still all these upsets:
1. PENN ST
2. SMU
3. GA
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEX
7. ND
8. TN
-----

I don't think they'll move any CHAMP LOSERS from their CFP ranking.
 
#2
#2
SMH. You do know Ohio St lost and is not in the championship game, no?

To your original thesis, however, I don't believe SMU has any bearing. Whoever wins the ACC championship game is jumping us to the 3 seed. That's foregone. All that matters is whether Ohio St is behind us or in front of us tomorrow night. If we are in front of them we host. Just depends on whether is a 6, 7, or 8 seed.
 
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#4
#4
UT97Vol said:
SMH. You do know Ohio St lost and is not in the championship game, no?

To your original thesis, however, I don't believe SMU has any bearing. Whoever wins the ACC championship game is jumping us to the 3 seed. That's foregone. All that matters is whether Ohio St is behind us or in front of us tomorrow night. If we are in front of them we host. Just depends on whether is a 6, 7, or 8 seed.
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Miami also lost and is no longer in the ACC championship. They are replaced by Clemson, who is behind the two schools competing for the Big 12 (Iowa St. and Arizona State). Only two schools will move ahead of TN, into the top 4, regardless of any conference championship outcomes.

If Ohio State goes behind TN tomorrow night, then we host. If they stay in front of us, then we need the committee to backtrack on not punishing conference championship losses so that Georgia or Penn State could fall behind.
 
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#6
#6
We gotta be 7th or better tomorrow night. But there is indeed a scenario where Penn State or Texas gets beat so bad in the championship game that they knock them down below us in the rankings, but still in the playoffs. Hopefully, we are above OSU regardless and it renders the argument pointless.
 
#8
#8
I want to see Clemson, UNLV, and Iowa State get in. I think Clemson and Iowa State would get the bye games.
 
#9
#9
Wherever we are Tuesday is probably where we are stuck. Maybe PSU could fall below us after losing to Oregon but that’s no guarantee.
 
#10
#10
adam.vol said:
I want to see Clemson, UNLV, and Iowa State get in. I think Clemson and Iowa State would get the bye games.
Click to expand...
I don't really care much who wins those games, other than Bama not being allowed to back door their way in the field. We almost certainly wouldn't face any of them, anyway, unless we somehow got the 6 seed.
 
#13
#13
UT97Vol said:
SMH. You do know Ohio St lost and is not in the championship game, no?

To your original thesis, however, I don't believe SMU has any bearing. Whoever wins the ACC championship game is jumping us to the 3 seed. That's foregone. All that matters is whether Ohio St is behind us or in front of us tomorrow night. If we are in front of them we host. Just depends on whether is a 6, 7, or 8 seed.
Click to expand...
Yeah if OSU is still ahead of then true, but I think we get the nod because OSU lost a home game... All the CFP rankings kept having MIAMI ahead of GA/TN then SMU. But it's true about who's ahead of us. If you think OSU gets a host and doesn't play in the champ game why would you still think the SMU vs CLEMSON game doesn't matter? . Are you projecting this ranking? With SMU winning it just becomes a shuffle and we are still in at 8 seed. If SMU loses, that means everyone from 4 down gets bumped.
1. ORE
2. TEXAS
3. PENN ST
4. ND
5. GA
6. OSU
7. TN
8.SMU
 
#14
#14
Dougie_D said:
The CFP just goes down the list of who's eligible next from their rankings based on who they think wins the CHAMP games.
For instance, here's how they ranked and then here's how they seeded with their projected playoff last week.
(X) means they won the champ
(O) means they loss the champ

1. ORE (X)
2. OSU (O)
3. TEXAS (X)
4. PENN ST
5. ND
6. MIAMI (X)
7. GA (O)
8. TN
9. SMU (O)
10. IND
11. BOISE ST(X)
12. CLEMSON
16. AZU (X)

Then this is how the rankings go after the PROJECTED. Georgia still gets nod because they were ahead of us in rankings.
1. ORE (X)
2. TEX (X)
3. MIAMI (X)
4. BOISE ST (X)
5. OSU
6.PENN ST
7. ND
8. GA
9. TN
10. SMU
11. IND
12. AZU (X)

Now let's say SMU moves up to #5, every champ becomes an upset , and we are at #7.
1. ORE (O)
2. TEXAS (0)
3. PENN ST(X)
4. ND
5. SMU(O)
6. GA (X)
7. TN
8.OSU
9. IND
10.BOISE ST (O)
11. SC
12. MIA
13. ASU (O)
16. CLEMSON (X)
17. B12 (X)
18. P5 (X)

How they might do seedings in this scenario: (SMU is ahead of us getting that 8 seed.)
1.PENN ST
2. GA
3. CLEMSON
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEXAS
7. ND
8. SMU
9. TN
10. OSU
11. IND
12. G5

Now lets say SMU wins but there's still all these upsets:
1. PENN ST
2. SMU
3. GA
4. B12
5. ORE
6. TEX
7. ND
8. TN
-----

I don't think they'll move any CHAMP LOSERS from their CFP ranking.
Click to expand...
Miami is not competing in the ACC Championship game. They’re ranked behind us in both polls, too. SMU is behind us in both rankings and the projections, too. The only way they pass us is if they win, in which case they pass us either way. Because the Big Ten champ and the SEC champ are already above us and the other conference champs are already below us, our hosting comes down to whether we’re ahead of Ohio State, barring some major movement after the championship games that the committee has tried to suggest will not happen (I have my doubts).
 
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#16
#16
JohnWardForever said:
SMU has been very consistent especially after changing QBs. I think they win the Acc.
Click to expand...
You’re probably right.

Dabo’s squad kept it close against South Carolina, which is why I give them a chance of beating SMU, even if it was a home loss. South Carolina reminds me of Don Frye this season:

1733169736965.gif

Nobody wants to play South Carolina right now.
 
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#17
#17
All we have to do to host is be in front of OSU tomorrow. That's all.

They lost at home to 20 point underdog and looked bad. It SHOULD be a lock.
 
#18
#18
Dougie_D said:
Yeah if OSU is still ahead of then true, but I think we get the nod because OSU lost a home game... All the CFP rankings kept having MIAMI ahead of GA/TN then SMU. But it's true about who's ahead of us. If you think OSU gets a host and doesn't play in the champ game why would you still think the SMU vs CLEMSON game doesn't matter? . Are you projecting this ranking? With SMU winning it just becomes a shuffle and we are still in at 8 seed. If SMU loses, that means everyone from 4 down gets bumped.
1. ORE
2. TEXAS
3. PENN ST
4. ND
5. GA
6. OSU
7. TN
8.SMU
Click to expand...

You're just looking at ranking not seed. I think Tenn should be ahead of OSU.

So, let's just say favorites win CCGs but for the sake of argument Clemson beats SMU. This is seed not ranking...

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Clemson (bye) - if SMU wins they would be here but it doesn't matter to us one way or the other because both are behind us
4. Boise (bye)
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn St.
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio St.
9. UGA
10. Indiana
11. Arizona St.
12. SMU


If Georgia beats Texas probably 8 for us as I doubt we get in front of Texas. But this is why it's really important for us to be in front of Ohio St tomorrow night to host.
 
#19
#19
VolPack22 said:
SMU winning does nothing for us. The ACC champions are getting an automatic bid. The only thing we would want from that game is for Clemson to win so that keeps Alabama out. SMU is ranked behind us so they are either dropping to 11 with a loss or getting the 3 seed with a win.
Click to expand...
End of thread
 
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#20
#20
kckempf said:
Miami is not competing in the ACC Championship game. They’re ranked behind us in both polls, too. SMU is behind us in both rankings and the projections, too. The only way they pass us is if they win, in which case they pass us either way. Because the Big Ten champ and the SEC champ are already above us and the other conference champs are already below us, our hosting comes down to whether we’re ahead of Ohio State, barring some major movement after the championship games that the committee has tried to suggest will not happen (I have my doubts).
Click to expand...
I'm projecting SMU to be ranked 5 and TN ranked 7th. If SMU wins I think every "projected ranked" 6-8 ranked are hosts. Notre Dame is a lock at 5 SEED. If SMU loses, they might still have SMU ahead of TN... TN is the only team in top 8 who can't play in their conference championship. SMU is a 2 loss ACC runner up. TN is 2 loss. I just feel like it's more about how they feel about SMU than anything.
 
#21
#21
UT97Vol said:
You're just looking at ranking not seed. I think Tenn should be ahead of OSU.

So, let's just say favorites win CCGs but for the sake of argument Clemson beats SMU. This is seed not ranking...

1. Oregon (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Clemson (bye) - if SMU wins they would be here but it doesn't matter to us one way or the other because both are behind us
4. Boise (bye)
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn St.
7. Tennessee
8. Ohio St.
9. UGA
10. Indiana
11. Arizona St.
12. SMU


If Georgia beats Texas probably 8 for us as I doubt we get in front of Texas. But this is why it's really important for us to be in front of Ohio St tomorrow night to host.
Click to expand...
We can't get ahed of Georgia because they beat us.
 
#22
#22
VolPack22 said:
SMU winning does nothing for us. The ACC champions are getting an automatic bid. The only thing we would want from that game is for Clemson to win so that keeps Alabama out. SMU is ranked behind us so they are either dropping to 11 with a loss or getting the 3 seed with a win.
Click to expand...
Bama, South Carolina, and Miami should care about SMU winning. If SMU loses, Bama, Miami , or South Carolina are probably out.

I’m looking forward to Clemson winning and South Carolina finishing as the first team out. Then we might have enough controversy to eliminate the auto bids.
 
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#23
#23
Dougie_D said:
You are assuming that SMU as a 2 loss ACC runner up drops out of that 8 ranking.
Click to expand...
Considering Clemson is going to be ranked about 19th or 20th yeah they would definitely fall out of the top 8. That would be the worst loss of all the power conference championships.
 
#24
#24
Dougie_D said:
We can't get ahed of Georgia because they beat us.
Click to expand...

Of course they are. You think they lose to a 3-loss team and don't drop at all? Good grief. They are going to be lucky to stay in the playoff at all if they lose. They are 50/50 to stay in if they lose CCG. As I demonstrated in the other thread I posted last hour every CCG loses spots in rankings if they lose.

And even if they didn't they would still be behind us.
 
#25
#25
adam.vol said:
Miami also lost and is no longer in the ACC championship. They are replaced by Clemson, who is behind the two schools competing for the Big 12 (Iowa St. and Arizona State). Only two schools will move ahead of TN, into the top 4, regardless of any conference championship outcomes.

If Ohio State goes behind TN tomorrow night, then we host. If they stay in front of us, then we need the committee to backtrack on not punishing conference championship losses so that Georgia or Penn State could fall behind.
Click to expand...
I just dont think Ohio St Drops that far with the committee.
 
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