Ranking Implications from Conference Championship Games

[UT97Vol]

Since a lot of folks believe Georgia isn't even going to drop a single place in the rankings if they lose the CCG, I thought would apply a little reality to this issue, because there's a short memory on this.

Last year, Georgia was #1 in the nation, lost by three to Alabama in the SEC CG, dropped five places and was kicked out of the CFB playoff.

In 2021, Georgia was #1 in the nation and lost to Alabama in the SEC CG and still made the playoff but dropped two places to #3.

In 2019, Georgia was #4, lost to #1 LSU and dropped to #5 once again missing the playoff

In 2018, #4 Georgia lost to #1 Alabama and dropped two spots.

If Georgia can lose to #1 on different occasions and drop, it's likely they drop if they lose to the #3 team - especially since (and this is the key point to this whole thing) there is more room now than ever before to place them. That's not a luxury the committee had in the four team playoff. One of the reasons Georgia didn't fall far in these other years is because the committee didn't always want to have them outside the playoff. Sometimes they kept them in. Sometimes they didn't. Only once in the past 10 years did a team not drop after losing in the CCG.

No one is saying they will boot UGA out of the playoff this time, but it's a reasonable assumption conference championship game losers will drop at least a spot or two especially with so few, if any elite teams. If Texas loses, perhaps they don't drop far enough to get behind us with a loss, but it may depend on other games. Final point here is the committee said they won't punish teams for playing the CCG. By that I believe they mean they won't boot them from the playoff (because they have enough room to maneuver and still keep teams in). It doesn't mean they aren't going to drop them at all or still give them a home game. FWIW.

 

[deatojl]

Since a lot of folks believe Georgia isn't even going to drop a single place in the rankings if they lose the CCG, I thought would apply a little reality to this issue, because there's a short memory on this.

Last year, Georgia was #1 in the nation, lost by three to Alabama in the SEC CG, dropped five places and was kicked out of the CFB playoff.

In 2021, Georgia was #1 in the nation and lost to Alabama in the SEC CG and still made the playoff but dropped two places to #3.

In 2019, Georgia was #4, lost to #1 LSU and dropped to #5 once again missing the playoff

In 2018, #4 Georgia lost to #1 Alabama and dropped two spots.

If Georgia can lose to #1 on different occasions and drop, it's likely they drop if they lose to the #3 team - especially since (and this is the key point to this whole thing) there is more room now than ever before to place them. That's not a luxury the committee had in the four team playoff. One of the reasons Georgia didn't fall far in these other years is because the committee didn't always want to have them outside the playoff. Sometimes they kept them in. Sometimes they didn't. Only once in the past 10 years did a team not drop after losing in the CCG.

No one is saying they will boot UGA out of the playoff this time, but it's a reasonable assumption conference championship game losers will drop at least a spot or two especially with so few, if any elite teams. If Texas loses, perhaps they don't drop far enough to get behind us with a loss, but it may depend on other games. Final point here is the committee said they won't punish teams for playing the CCG. By that I believe they mean they won't boot them from the playoff (because they have enough room to maneuver and still keep teams in). It doesn't mean they aren't going to drop them at all or still give them a home game. FWIW.

I agree with every bit of your post. I think way too many people are taking the idea of "not punishing a team for losing their CCG" a bit too literal. It will have an effect, just not likely to the extent of knocking them out completely unless their inclusion is dependent upon winning the CG. For instance, Boise St will be ranked inside the top 12 this week. Does anyone think they will still get in and stay at their same ranking if they lose to UNLV? Clemson and both Big 12 teams are only in if they win next week. Should Oregon stay #1 if they lose to Penn St? Should Texas stay #2 with a loss to Georgia? It seems to me that a lot of people are only really applying this concept of a CG loser keeping their current ranking in the case that team is Georgia.

 

[Sarms58]

We‘ll just have to wait and see since this year‘s format is different from previous years past experience may not be as applicable as the examples suggest. I think the new format will ensure that we do get the best 4 teams but of course now the focus will shift to the last 4 teams in and the seeding. If they stay with the 12 team format they will need to tweak the seedings - the 3 and 4 seeds this year should probably be on the road for the first round vs getting a bye. I think the playoff will probably go to 16, eliminate the byes, and let the top 8 host the bottom 8 in the first round.

There has been and will continue to be plenty of discussion about not penalizing a team for losing their conference championship game but I believe it was mostly focused on the two leagues who are putting 3 or more teams in the playoffs. If Georgia loses a close game to Texas, do we, a team they beat by 2 TDs, move ahead of them? Both teams still make the playoffs but Georgia has to go on the road vs hosting and Tennessee - because we finished third - get the second highest seed for the SEC. I’m sure it will be discussed to death or at least until the conference championship games are eliminated and we go back to crowning the champs like we did before 1992.

 

[#1n51&98]

I agree , if there is an advantage for winning a ccg ( bye ) there has to be a disadvantage if you lose a ccg ( a drop in the polls)

 

[adam.vol]

I couldn’t have said that any better. I believe they lose position, but not as if it were a regular season game.

 

[rdk4121]

I agree with every bit of your post. I think way too many people are taking the idea of "not punishing a team for losing their CCG" a bit too literal. It will have an effect, just not likely to the extent of knocking them out completely unless their inclusion is dependent upon winning the CG. For instance, Boise St will be ranked inside the top 12 this week. Does anyone think they will still get in and stay at their same ranking if they lose to UNLV? Clemson and both Big 12 teams are only in if they win next week. Should Oregon stay #1 if they lose to Penn St? Should Texas stay #2 with a loss to Georgia? It seems to me that a lot of people are only really applying this concept of a CG loser keeping their current ranking in the case that team is Georgia.

Thank you, this is what I've been. Penn State will drop if they lose, it's a matter of how far. Behind us? Maybe, maybe not. Same with Texas, probably won't drop behind us, but it's possible.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Last year the Conference CG meant something. This year it doesn’t unless your like Clemson and have to win to be in.

I don’t think Ugly will get punished if they lose as they have already beat The fake UT.

The committee is walking a fine line for ESPN. If they punish the teams in the CONF CG who are already in the CFP, teams will not want to play in them and ESPN wants that extra week of revenue from NCAAFB.

Alway$ follow the Monday…..$$$$$

 

[VolPack22]

The SEC and Big Ten losers are going to be hosting. Just depends on what seed they get. They are both playing top 5 championship games so there will be movement, just not a lot imo. With a loss, the lowest each team would drop is Oregon being the 5. Texas would be 6 or 7. Penn State would be 6 or 7. Georgia would be 7 or 8. I just don’t see them knocking the losers out of a hosting spot, especially since they are playing top teams.

 

[Sarms58]

I agree with every bit of your post. I think way too many people are taking the idea of "not punishing a team for losing their CCG" a bit too literal. It will have an effect, just not likely to the extent of knocking them out completely unless their inclusion is dependent upon winning the CG. For instance, Boise St will be ranked inside the top 12 this week. Does anyone think they will still get in and stay at their same ranking if they lose to UNLV? Clemson and both Big 12 teams are only in if they win next week. Should Oregon stay #1 if they lose to Penn St? Should Texas stay #2 with a loss to Georgia? It seems to me that a lot of people are only really applying this concept of a CG loser keeping their current ranking in the case that team is Georgia.

Boise State is this year’s feel good story…they aren’t a top 15 team. If they played Bama or Ole Miss or South Carolina it would be a replay of the Bama vs Cincinnati game a few years ago. But I’m sure the talking heads will keep them over ranked and the highest ranked group of 5 team gets in…the Big 12 doesn’t have a top 15 team either but their champ will get in. Add Notre Dame and the SEC, B10, and ACC are playing for the nine remaining slots. As long as SMU beats Clemson it’s easy - ACC gets one team in and both the SEC and B10 each get 4. But if Clemson - 0-2 in the SEC - wins, it’s likely the SEC only gets 3 teams in.

 

[UT97Vol]

Last year the Conference CG meant something. This year it doesn’t unless your like Clemson and have to win to be in.

I don’t think Ugly will get punished if they lose as they have already beat The fake UT.

The committee is walking a fine line for ESPN. If they punish the teams in the CONF CG who are already in the CFP, teams will not want to play in them and ESPN wants that extra week of revenue from NCAAFB.

Alway$ follow the Monday…..$$$$$

Define "punish". I don't believe most people's definition and what the chair of the committee thinks are the same thing. Also, the committee is notorious for not being completely honest on these types of comments.

There is opportunity and cost for reaching a CCG. For some it means a bye if they win. For others it might mean securing a spot that would be lost otherwise if they lose it. Teams don't get to a lose a game and have absolute zero costs applied. That's not how CFB has ever worked.

 

[Sarms58]

The SEC and Big Ten losers are going to be hosting. Just depends on what seed they get. They are both playing top 5 championship games so there will be movement, just not a lot imo. With a loss, the lowest each team would drop is Oregon being the 5. Texas would be 6 or 7. Penn State would be 6 or 7. Georgia would be 7 or 8. I just don’t see them knocking the losers out of a hosting spot, especially since they are playing top teams.

I think that’s what is really meant when they say they’re not going to penalize the loser of the conference championship games. The SEC and B10 are so far ahead of the other conferences so all the discussion about not penalizing really just applies to those two conferences.

 

[bpalmer28]

It’s different this year because they don’t have to drop teams in order to make room for conference champions.

 

[UT97Vol]

It’s different this year because they don’t have to drop teams in order to make room for conference champions.

They also can drop confer champ losers and not have to worry about them missing the playoff because of it. That goes both ways.

 

[bpalmer28]

They also can drop confer champ losers and not have to worry about them missing the playoff because of it. That goes both ways.

True

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Last year the Conference CG meant something. This year it doesn’t unless your like Clemson and have to win to be in.

Such BS, that is.

Conference championships are a reward in and of themselves. To win the SEC championship, you gotta be pretty elite. You have to be one of the two best teams in the best conference in the country just to have a chance at it.

Litmus test: one team wins a national title, but no SEC title. The other team wins both the national title AND the SEC title? Which is the better deal? No one, not one person in their right mind, would pass up on the conference title.

Being rewarded for being the best is always cool, at any level it happens.

Go Vols!

 

[VolPack22]

The first round byes will go away after next season anyways and this won’t be such a hot button topic going forward. TNT is scheduled to broadcast two first round games each year for the next 5 seasons, and will also broadcast 2 quarterfinal games each year starting in 2026. For anyone that thinks this thing isn’t going to 16 games then look no further than that. ESPN wouldn’t give up 2 quarterfinal games if they weren’t expanding to 16.

 

[VolJarhead]

Everything here is just our opinions. The committee could leave a team exactly where they were after a loss if they wanted to or they could drop them down. The reason people believe they won't drop is because there were remarks from the committee about not punishing teams. If you drop a teams seed at all, that's a punishment. Some believe that if you are still in the playoffs, you weren't punished. If Boise State loses, does that mean they should stay in the playoffs? We can argue this however we want to, but until the final seeding is done, no one knows what will happen. Stating anything as if it is fact is just putting yourself out there to say you were right to chest thump or to be ridiculed for being wrong or to claim that the committee did something wrong. The purpose in the playoffs was to make sure that a Florida State from last year doesn't get left out of the playoffs again. If a team doesn't make it in with the current scenario, they really didn't get left out.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

Such BS, that is.

Conference championships are a reward in and of themselves. To win the SEC championship, you gotta be pretty elite. You have to be one of the two best teams in the best conference in the country just to have a chance at it.

Litmus test: one team wins a national title, but no SEC title. The other team wins both the national title AND the SEC title? Which is the better deal? No one, not one person in their right mind, would pass up on the conference title.

Being rewarded for being the best is always cool, at any level it happens.

Go Vols!

Fair point on meaning You won your CONF CG but it no longer has the value of making the BCS4/CFP12 unless your on the outside looking in which is the part of the conversation I was commenting on.

 

[Sarms58]

The first round byes will go away after next season anyways and this won’t be such a hot button topic going forward. TNT is scheduled to broadcast two first round games each year for the next 5 seasons, and will also broadcast 2 quarterfinal games each year starting in 2026. For anyone that thinks this thing isn’t going to 16 games then look no further than that. ESPN wouldn’t give up 2 quarterfinal games if they weren’t expanding to 16.

I think they go to 16 teams and drop the conference championship games…

 

[Sarms58]

Everything here is just our opinions. The committee could leave a team exactly where they were after a loss if they wanted to or they could drop them down. The reason people believe they won't drop is because there were remarks from the committee about not punishing teams. If you drop a teams seed at all, that's a punishment. Some believe that if you are still in the playoffs, you weren't punished. If Boise State loses, does that mean they should stay in the playoffs? We can argue this however we want to, but until the final seeding is done, no one knows what will happen. Stating anything as if it is fact is just putting yourself out there to say you were right to chest thump or to be ridiculed for being wrong or to claim that the committee did something wrong. The purpose in the playoffs was to make sure that a Florida State from last year doesn't get left out of the playoffs again. If a team doesn't make it in with the current scenario, they really didn't get left out.

True…it’s all opinions and mine is that not punishing a team for making their conference championship games means not dropping them from hosting to being on the road…don’t care if they get dropped from a 6th seed to an 8th seed as long as they still host the first round. Again, we’re really only talking about the fate of the B10 and SECCG losers…

 

[Dadof2Vols]

I think they go to 16 teams and drop the conference championship games…

Follow the money. The money generated by Conference Championships come into conferences that hold them.

CFP playoff games go into CFP honeypot.

For the love of money, I don’t $ee the conference champion$hip game$ going away.

 

[SockeyeVol]

Strong OP. Backing up the argument with data.

This idea that CG losers can't be "punished" Is being taken too literally. Decisions aren't made on single considerations alone. The committee is going to weigh a lot of factors. To think a team has immunity once it plays in CG is naive.

 

[deatojl]

Boise State is this year’s feel good story…they aren’t a top 15 team. If they played Bama or Ole Miss or South Carolina it would be a replay of the Bama vs Cincinnati game a few years ago. But I’m sure the talking heads will keep them over ranked and the highest ranked group of 5 team gets in…the Big 12 doesn’t have a top 15 team either but their champ will get in. Add Notre Dame and the SEC, B10, and ACC are playing for the nine remaining slots. As long as SMU beats Clemson it’s easy - ACC gets one team in and both the SEC and B10 each get 4. But if Clemson - 0-2 in the SEC - wins, it’s likely the SEC only gets 3 teams in.

I agree with you on Boise St. However, they are currently in a position to get a first round bye and they are also currently ranked within the top 12, which means the committee currently considers them as a playoff team. Clemson and the Big 12 teams do not hold that designation. That means, at least in the eyes of the committee, they are considered a playoff team regardless of conference championship game. So, if they were to lose that conference championship game, they would be getting punished for playing and losing that extra game while the teams not playing this weekend sit and wait. And it is not just seeding on the line for them, it is their spot in the playoff field. The committee cannot say there is absolutely no punishment for losing a CGG, then apply that standard to only certain conferences.

 

[deatojl]

The SEC and Big Ten losers are going to be hosting. Just depends on what seed they get. They are both playing top 5 championship games so there will be movement, just not a lot imo. With a loss, the lowest each team would drop is Oregon being the 5. Texas would be 6 or 7. Penn State would be 6 or 7. Georgia would be 7 or 8. I just don’t see them knocking the losers out of a hosting spot, especially since they are playing top teams.

For the most part, and in most years, I agree with you. However, if Georgia loses to Texas, they are a 3 loss team. I think it is pretty iffy whether or not they will have a 3 loss team as a first round host, particularly when that team goes into the CG on somewhat of a bubble to host with two losses.

 

[wtmvol]

The truth is, they can do anything they want and justify it somehow. And no one's going to shed any tears for us if we get dropped to the 9 seed.