UT or OSU for the 8-seed? (Data)

#1
mrmax86

mrmax86

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#1
GameOpponentH/ASOROpponentH/ASOR
1UTCHomeFCSAkronHome111
2NCStNeutral68WMichHome103
3KentHome134MarshHome40
4OUAway31MSUAway66
5ArkAway45IowaHome37
6UFHome25OreAway1
7BamaHome10NebHome52
8UKHome63PSUAway4
9MissStHome105PurHome117
10UGAAway2NWAway85
11UTEPHome127IUHome8
12VandyAway41MichHome30

We played an FCS team, so it's only fair to drop OSU's highest number for comparison.

SOR Points
UT 651
OSU 537*

Points Per Game For-Against
UT 34-15
OSU 36-11*

Yards Per Game For-Against
UT 440-283
OSU 423-242

-We are both 10-2
-We both played 4 away games
-We both average +0.5 Turnover margin

On paper, OSU looks like the slightly better team. They did not play an FCS opponent this year, which helps them, and their average opponent strength is above ours. Considering their Playoff presence the last few years/brand recognition/etc, I do not anticipate we get put in over them unless the committee uses some logic-less word salad reason.
 
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#4
#4
mrmax86 said:
GameOpponentH/ASOROpponentH/ASOR
1UTCHomeFCSAkronHome111
2NCStNeutral68WMichHome103
3KentHome134MarshHome40
4OUAway31MSUAway66
5ArkAway45IowaHome37
6UFHome25OreAway1
7BamaHome10NebHome52
8UKHome63PSUAway4
9MissStHome105PurHome117
10UGAAway2NWAway85
11UTEPHome127IUHome8
12VandyAway41MichHome30

We played an FCS team, so it's only fair to drop OSU's highest number for comparison.

SOR Points
UT 651
OSU 537*

Points Per Game For-Against
UT 34-15
OSU 36-11*

Yards Per Game For-Against
UT 440-283
OSU 423-242

-We are both 10-2
-We both played 4 away games
-We both average +0.5 Turnover margin

On paper, OSU looks like the slightly better team. They did not play an FCS opponent this year, which helps them, and their average opponent strength is above ours. Considering their Playoff presence the last few years/brand recognition/etc, I do not anticipate we get put in over them unless the committee uses some logic-less word salad reason.
Click to expand...
Every team they played was an fcs team for all intents and purposes
 
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#11
#11
rjd970 said:
Strictly by the metrics, I don't know how the committee puts us ahead of OSU.
Click to expand...

Because they have no metrics. Or that is to say they don't follow any sort of data centric or metric driven protocol.

This isn't going to be a data driven decision. Every single committee rep watched that Ohio St/Michigan game. As did I. Or at least they should have. And if you watched that game you saw a team that was wholly underwhelming against a semi-decent (but not good) team at home. Michigan did not beat Ohio State. Ohio St beat themselves and when you look at all the other variables that have nothing to do with data I don't see many committee members being enamored with a team that had a chance to seal their position in the top 5 and dropped a big ole turd on the field.

Committee could go the opposite direction and put them in front of us. I mean yeah it's certainly plausible but for a number reasons that have nothing to do with data I just don't think they will.
 
#12
#12
apevol said:
they just got beat by a bad team at home and looked awful
Click to expand...
luthervol said:
I thought the committee made a big point about viewing the most recent performances more heavily.

We win that metric hands down.
ohio state's most recent performance sucked eggs.
Click to expand...
Agreed! Will they be consistent? One can hope. Looking at our recent performances, we're on the way up
 
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#16
#16
Interesting analysis OP, what's the asterisk?
VolForLife83 said:
www.on3.com

ESPN explains why Ohio State will host first-round College Football Playoff game over Tennessee

ESPN projects Ohio State to be the final team hosting a College Football Playoff game in the first round, ahead of Tennessee.
www.on3.com www.on3.com
Click to expand...

The fallacy here is that OSU's 2 top 10 wins are over teams who have done nothing but benefit from major media markets.

Neither Penn St nor Indiana have a high quality win, and in all likelihood are nowhere near being one of the best 10 teams in the country. Yet OSU benefits mightily from that premise.
 
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#17
#17
UT97Vol said:
Because they have no metrics. Or that is to say they don't follow any sort of data centric or metric driven protocol.

This isn't going to be a data driven decision. Every single committee rep watched that Ohio St/Michigan game. As did I. Or at least they should have. And if you watched that game you saw a team that was wholly underwhelming against a semi-decent (but not good) team at home. Michigan did not beat Ohio State. Ohio St beat themselves and when you look at all the other variables that have nothing to do with data I don't see many committee members being enamored with a team that had a chance to seal their position in the top 5 and dropped a big ole turd on the field.

Committee could go the opposite direction and put them in front of us. I mean yeah it's certainly plausible but for a number reasons that have nothing to do with data I just don't think they will.
Click to expand...
Yes, tOSU played a 6-5 team at home and sh** the bed. UT played a 6-5 team on the road and dominated them. UT took care of business convincingly, tOSU failed miserably.
 
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#18
#18
I think this is the best summary....

www.sportingnews.com

College Football Playoff committee undermines its credibility with reality of weekly rankings show | Sporting News

The College Football Playoff committee's process for selecting and seeding teams too secret, and the inconsistencies of its weekly bracket presentation leave everyone involved wondering what matters.
www.sportingnews.com www.sportingnews.com
The process followed by the football committee is largely opaque. I sat through a conference call with two CFP administrators and heard far too many mentions of the “eye test” and essentially nothing about what metrics and measurements are valued or how to access the information and data.

The "eye test" is best translated as: We pick the teams we want.
 
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#19
#19
I'll just say one thing about this topic. Michigan's offense all year was anemic, pathetic, horrible. Against Ohio State, Michigan's offense was anemic, pathetic, horrible. And Ohio State still couldn't beat them. At home. This was the 1990 Ut-Bama 9-6 fiasco all over again. You do that in the last game of the year right before the playoffs and you are lucky to still be in the playoffs at all. Heck, I'd drop them into the 10-12 range if I were on the committee.
 
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#20
#20
A playoff game in Neyland would be epic, by any conceivable measure, must see TV.

A playoff game in Ohio Stadium would be just like any other game of tOSU’s B1G home schedule. If they’re playing Tennessee, it’ll get eyeballs, but the environment won’t stir up the viewers without fealty to either team.

Neyland sets the bar. Even jaded broadcasters acknowledge that.

Still, the heavy B1G contingent on the committee will press to have tOSU host. Interested parties uninvested in B1G prestige will have to lobby hard for Neyland.

Edit: I’m not disrespecting TBDBITL and their awesome on field performances, but barely a few seconds of that will be broadcast, if any. Yes, Ohio Stadium has an interesting history, but it’s relevant to the game the Buckeyes just lost. In contrast, full of spirited Vols fans, Neyland is electrifying. It’s an environment that’s intimidating and enviable. It adds to the broadcast of any game played there.
 
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#21
#21
Tin Man said:
A playoff game in Neyland would be epic, by any conceivable measure, must see TV.

A playoff game in Ohio Stadium would be just like any other game of tOSU’s B1G home schedule. If they’re playing Tennessee, it’ll get eyeballs, but the environment won’t stir up the viewers without fealty to either team.

Neyland sets the bar. Even jaded broadcasters acknowledge that.

Still, the heavy B1G contingent on the committee will press to have tOSU host. Interested parties uninvested in B1G prestige will have to lobby hard for Neyland.
Click to expand...
what's the ratio of B10 to other conference amongst committee members?
 
#24
#24
mrmax86 said:
Agreed! Will they be consistent? One can hope. Looking at our recent performances, we're on the way up
Click to expand...
Had a 10-1 TN team lost to Vandy at home in an ugly game while a 9-2 Ohio State team was beating Michigan convincingly on the road....................................

I guarantee you that Ohio State team would jump over the UT team with barely a discussion.
 
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