Seismic shift in the college football landscape

#1

xpsyclonex2002

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#1
I am watching the playoffs and, like everyone else, watching the SEC drop like flies. Texas, who wasn't even in the SEC this time last year, is our only saving grace. We've seen wilder things this season. Vandy beating Bama. Ark beating us. etc. The playoff is not being dominated by the SEC as we would have imagined at the beginning of the season. We didn't even dominate the number of teams from one conference in the playoff. What's up with that?
I believe that we are seeing a permanent shift in the football landscape. One where the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the rest. More than 50% of the National Champions from the last 20 years are from the SEC. Our reputation was well earned.
The NIL era is going to level the playing field. Not every backwater team will have success, but the days of the biggest powerhouse teams dominating the conversation are on the wain. The transfer portal is going to keep teams from hoarding talent. If you're a starter for an unknown team, you can get recognized by bigger schools and transfer in. If you're a top recruit that finds yourself buried in a depth chart, you can find a slightly less talented team and become a starter, turning them into contenders. If you're a top player that is a starter, you can go where the money takes you. The SEC was where you wanted to go to play if you wanted the best shot at a championship. Now championships take a backseat to immediate money. In the Saban era, 5* players would ride the bench because they statistically stood a certainty to win a ring while they were there. Bear Bryant would recruit players he didn't even want to keep them from playing on other teams. Now players won't wait. They want playing time.......now. How can you ask for more NIL money if you aren't on the field?
The reality is that teams from regions where they don't have competition for NIL donors is going to thrive. Teams in economically strapped areas will not likely be competitive. states with deep pockets like Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, etc will always be good. Places like Arkansas, Nebraska, the Carolinas etc will always be squeezed for cash. Even take a state like Alabama and ask, " how does a smaller less affluent state like that support 2 major programs with enough NIL money to be contenders?" I don't think they can in the long run. Look how quickly Bama fell off already. Over the next 4-5 years teams will get by on depth of fan base and the power of their brand name. But as we go a few more years, and the teams lose their luster, the money machine will slow down. All those bandwagon Bama fans that sprung up all over the country aren't donors.

Ultimately, over the next 5 years, we are going to see parity in college football. We will go from 10-15 teams being legit contenders every year, to something more akin to the wild, wild west. Teams will need to be just good enough to get into the playoff. Then it's a crap shoot. The era of teams like Bama/Georgia/Clemson creating dynasties are over.
 
#2
#2
While I agree with a lot of this, it is hard to grasp from just 1-2 years.

I definitely thing Alabama/Clemson run is probably over. I think Texas is just getting started and Texas A&M could build something under Elko. We are starting to make some noise. I feel like we are not pulling in the talent yet and it is probably more of a slow build than a fast one. I think Auburn could have a breakout year.

Michigan, Notre Dame, and Ohio State, all three, stand to win big in this system as all three schools are loaded with money and the B1G, while strong at the top, is weaker at the bottom. Penn State and the West Coast teams could fit into that picture to a lesser degree. Heck, even Nebraska could, eventually, make a comeback.

Big12 just doesn't have the pedigree to win a title but could make noise with a few teams every so often. ACC still has some big names but we will see if FSU, Miami, Va Tech, or any of their stronger programs can do anything. ACC seems like such a waste of potential. They have teams in almost every Atlantic Media Market (well they did until they lost Maryland) and half their league is in the player heavy south. Why the ACC isn't a stronger football league has always befuddled me. It might be too late for them now with the new TV deals and expansions of B1G and SEC.
 
#3
#3
To be fair to the SEC, UGA had their starting QB injured; I would like to see how any of the final four would do without their starting QB (I guess Texas would be okay ;)). I think UGA not having Beck was a big deal since he actually tried in big games

If the NCAA fixes the seeding situation, I see an SEC comeback coming
 
#6
#6
Saturday Down South had an interesting article on fixing the playoffs. 1st take 4 highest seeds not the 4 highest conference champs as the bye teams. Then let the bye teams pick where they want to play and who they want to play of the first round winners, starting with the #1 team picking 1st. This would have led to UT playing Boise St at home. This probably would have led to UGA playing UT again in the Peach Bowl, assuming UT beats Boise St.
 
#7
#7
To be fair to the SEC, UGA had their starting QB injured; I would like to see how any of the final four would do without their starting QB (I guess Texas would be okay ;)). I think UGA not having Beck was a big deal since he actually tried in big games

If the NCAA fixes the seeding situation, I see an SEC comeback coming
As a Vols fan i could care less about Georgia. I do not like ND either. But seeing the Dogs get beat was fun. With what i have seen from Ohio St, Texas better buckle up. I do not think Texas will beat Ohio St. Maybe next year SEC.
 
#8
#8
This narrative is way overblown.

Bowl games:
- Big10: 8-5
- SEC: 8-6

There is more parity in CFB and this is arguably a down year for powerhouses in SEC but the conference is still neck and neck with Big10 and likely deeper from top to bottom.

IMO the disparity this year is twofold:
- the CFP seeding was horrendous. If teams were seeded accurately and Big10 wasn’t given defacto home games then the playoff would have looked a lot different. Even still, Texas is in the final 4. Most SEC fans believe Texas isn’t even the 2nd best team in the conference yet they still made it to top 4. UGA likely was the best team and just had a catastrophic loss at QB the week before.

-OSU is by far the most “talented” team this year. 90% blue chip. If they play to potential, they should win, but their coaching and players often drop the ball. Everyone non-SEC is hanging onto OSU coattails and saying SEC is bad this year. No OSU is really good and everyone else is battling for 2nd.

Is SEC down, yes. But it’s way overblown. Who cares what conference wins it. CJH now has the blueprint to what it takes to win. You have played H2H against UGA, Bama and now OSU. Bridge the gap with talent or don’t and risk getting blown out every year.
 
#10
#10
If they just did away with the automatic byes to conference champions we would see a lot better playoff imo. I’m cool with giving the top 5 conference champions automatic bids any format that allows teams to vault several spots in front of them is a joke. Just rank them 1-12 and match them up accordingly. Whenever the number 1 team in the country is playing number 6, while number 4 gets to play 9 in the second round. That’s a big problem. Oregon should have been playing the winner of Indiana/Boise State but gets stuck playing the winner of Ohio State/Tennessee. And Georgia should have been playing the winner of Tennessee/SMU instead of the number 5 team in the country. You get punished for being the number 1 and number 2 team and it shouldn’t be that way.
 
#11
#11
As a Vols fan i could care less about Georgia. I do not like ND either. But seeing the Dogs get beat was fun. With what i have seen from Ohio St, Texas better buckle up. I do not think Texas will beat Ohio St. Maybe next year SEC.
I agree but if someone is saying the SEC underperformed in the playoff, it’s worth mentioning UGA was the only team in the Playoff missing their starting QB, which is the most important position 🤷‍♂️

Ohio State is the only team I have seen that looks significantly better than what the SEC has. Even Notre Dame if it were playing against UGA with Beck would likely have a significantly harder time, especially if they didn’t play dumb. I think UT could have looked better against Notre Dame, etc. than they did against Ohio State if the seeding issue was fixed.
 
#13
#13
While I agree with a lot of this, it is hard to grasp from just 1-2 years.

I definitely thing Alabama/Clemson run is probably over. I think Texas is just getting started and Texas A&M could build something under Elko. We are starting to make some noise. I feel like we are not pulling in the talent yet and it is probably more of a slow build than a fast one. I think Auburn could have a breakout year.

Michigan, Notre Dame, and Ohio State, all three, stand to win big in this system as all three schools are loaded with money and the B1G, while strong at the top, is weaker at the bottom. Penn State and the West Coast teams could fit into that picture to a lesser degree. Heck, even Nebraska could, eventually, make a comeback.

Big12 just doesn't have the pedigree to win a title but could make noise with a few teams every so often. ACC still has some big names but we will see if FSU, Miami, Va Tech, or any of their stronger programs can do anything. ACC seems like such a waste of potential. They have teams in almost every Atlantic Media Market (well they did until they lost Maryland) and half their league is in the player heavy south. Why the ACC isn't a stronger football league has always befuddled me. It might be too late for them now with the new TV deals and expansions of B1G and SEC.
I learned recently that Penn St has deeper pockets than I assumed they did. They have more CEO alumnus than any other school and rake in piles of money.
 
#14
#14
NIL has brought much greater parity...it's a big reason Saban left (you no longer have the luxury of paying 5 stars to sit for added depth when they can somewhere else and make the same or more $$$ and play).
 
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#15
#15
I am watching the playoffs and, like everyone else, watching the SEC drop like flies. Texas, who wasn't even in the SEC this time last year, is our only saving grace. We've seen wilder things this season. Vandy beating Bama. Ark beating us. etc. The playoff is not being dominated by the SEC as we would have imagined at the beginning of the season. We didn't even dominate the number of teams from one conference in the playoff. What's up with that?
I believe that we are seeing a permanent shift in the football landscape. One where the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the rest. More than 50% of the National Champions from the last 20 years are from the SEC. Our reputation was well earned.
The NIL era is going to level the playing field. Not every backwater team will have success, but the days of the biggest powerhouse teams dominating the conversation are on the wain. The transfer portal is going to keep teams from hoarding talent. If you're a starter for an unknown team, you can get recognized by bigger schools and transfer in. If you're a top recruit that finds yourself buried in a depth chart, you can find a slightly less talented team and become a starter, turning them into contenders. If you're a top player that is a starter, you can go where the money takes you. The SEC was where you wanted to go to play if you wanted the best shot at a championship. Now championships take a backseat to immediate money. In the Saban era, 5* players would ride the bench because they statistically stood a certainty to win a ring while they were there. Bear Bryant would recruit players he didn't even want to keep them from playing on other teams. Now players won't wait. They want playing time.......now. How can you ask for more NIL money if you aren't on the field?
The reality is that teams from regions where they don't have competition for NIL donors is going to thrive. Teams in economically strapped areas will not likely be competitive. states with deep pockets like Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, etc will always be good. Places like Arkansas, Nebraska, the Carolinas etc will always be squeezed for cash. Even take a state like Alabama and ask, " how does a smaller less affluent state like that support 2 major programs with enough NIL money to be contenders?" I don't think they can in the long run. Look how quickly Bama fell off already. Over the next 4-5 years teams will get by on depth of fan base and the power of their brand name. But as we go a few more years, and the teams lose their luster, the money machine will slow down. All those bandwagon Bama fans that sprung up all over the country aren't donors.

Ultimately, over the next 5 years, we are going to see parity in college football. We will go from 10-15 teams being legit contenders every year, to something more akin to the wild, wild west. Teams will need to be just good enough to get into the playoff. Then it's a crap shoot. The era of teams like Bama/Georgia/Clemson creating dynasties are over.
This is a really insightful assessment of the near future. Thanks for it, psyclone!
 
#16
#16
I am watching the playoffs and, like everyone else, watching the SEC drop like flies. Texas, who wasn't even in the SEC this time last year, is our only saving grace. We've seen wilder things this season. Vandy beating Bama. Ark beating us. etc. The playoff is not being dominated by the SEC as we would have imagined at the beginning of the season. We didn't even dominate the number of teams from one conference in the playoff. What's up with that?
I believe that we are seeing a permanent shift in the football landscape. One where the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the rest. More than 50% of the National Champions from the last 20 years are from the SEC. Our reputation was well earned.
The NIL era is going to level the playing field. Not every backwater team will have success, but the days of the biggest powerhouse teams dominating the conversation are on the wain. The transfer portal is going to keep teams from hoarding talent. If you're a starter for an unknown team, you can get recognized by bigger schools and transfer in. If you're a top recruit that finds yourself buried in a depth chart, you can find a slightly less talented team and become a starter, turning them into contenders. If you're a top player that is a starter, you can go where the money takes you. The SEC was where you wanted to go to play if you wanted the best shot at a championship. Now championships take a backseat to immediate money. In the Saban era, 5* players would ride the bench because they statistically stood a certainty to win a ring while they were there. Bear Bryant would recruit players he didn't even want to keep them from playing on other teams. Now players won't wait. They want playing time.......now. How can you ask for more NIL money if you aren't on the field?
The reality is that teams from regions where they don't have competition for NIL donors is going to thrive. Teams in economically strapped areas will not likely be competitive. states with deep pockets like Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, etc will always be good. Places like Arkansas, Nebraska, the Carolinas etc will always be squeezed for cash. Even take a state like Alabama and ask, " how does a smaller less affluent state like that support 2 major programs with enough NIL money to be contenders?" I don't think they can in the long run. Look how quickly Bama fell off already. Over the next 4-5 years teams will get by on depth of fan base and the power of their brand name. But as we go a few more years, and the teams lose their luster, the money machine will slow down. All those bandwagon Bama fans that sprung up all over the country aren't donors.

Ultimately, over the next 5 years, we are going to see parity in college football. We will go from 10-15 teams being legit contenders every year, to something more akin to the wild, wild west. Teams will need to be just good enough to get into the playoff. Then it's a crap shoot. The era of teams like Bama/Georgia/Clemson creating dynasties are over.
The problem the sec is having , the players are being offered Ludacris amounts bc they are in the sec. Even second and third string sec players will get paid a lot of money just bc they play in the sec. So this is making it increasingly difficult for teams in the sec to retain players.
 
#17
#17
To be fair to the SEC, UGA had their starting QB injured; I would like to see how any of the final four would do without their starting QB (I guess Texas would be okay ;)). I think UGA not having Beck was a big deal since he actually tried in big games

If the NCAA fixes the seeding situation, I see an SEC comeback coming
You could plug Tenn, Georgia, Bama, Ole Miss, uscjr into the slot Penn St got and they'd be in the final four. Maybe even Missouri.
 
#19
#19
As a Tennessee fan, I don’t want the rest of the SEC to dominate.
Agree! And, think ultimately, I'm ok w/ the talent being spread around more...gives us a shorter path to rise to more elite level. I think, moving forward, if a team has good financing (the Vols do), and good culture in the building like JH has established, along w/ facilities and fan following...then we're going to attract our fair share of talent, and with things we have going in our direction, we'll be in a pretty good spot.

I also do not think this particular year is necessarily the end of SEC dominance. Talent level spread some, for sure....but think the lack of any really good QBs on top level SEC teams had a big impact. Alot of QB talent coming back next year in SEC, plus Arch Manning...so, wouldn't be surprised to see better SEC teams in playoffs next year.
 
#21
#21
The SEC as a whole is still head and shoulders above the rest of the conferences as a whole. What the portal has done is narrow the talent gap for the mid tier teams and allow for quicker rebuilds. This means that UGA and Bama can no longer take advantage of the floundering SEC schools for a decade while we jump from coach to coach in search of the "answer."

When other conferences close the gap on players drafted to the NFL, maybe then we can be concerned.

Also, 1 unintended consequence of the portal is that it lengthens the average college coaches tenure at a school. It's way easier to rebuild a terrible team through the portal. So you will likely see more coaches have success early at their new school, and then fall off in year 3 or 4 when it's harder to rely on portal players.
 
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#24
#24
I love this part of modern college football. It's a very swing sport. I think what the SEC has been will be impossible to replicate. Any year, any conference or team can turn it around.
 
#25
#25
so even after noting that we only won about 50% of the national titles for the last 20 years before this year; you are freaked out that this year we only have 1 team in the Final 4?

one year does not a trend make.

no conference looked dominate this year like in the years past. Sure the Big 10 is better than the SEC this year. but there isn't any reason to think its a long term thing beyond reactionary bias.

even if the Big 10 can stay as they are, if the SEC looks like they normally do next year, the SEC will be the better conference.
 
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