2025 Seed Watch Party Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

Done these every year for quite awhile, another one was started but doesn’t appear to be getting kept up with or updated so figured I would start my annual one which is also a bit of a different format. Again I like to use bracket matrix, for those that don’t know they use 100+ brackets from some of the best around the world, they then combine those and essentially create a seed list off the averages of all these brackets. For years this has proven to be the most accurate source of info, and while each year someone pretty much nails it dead on, nobody year after year is usually more accurate than their formula, so they are typically my source of info for bracketing. I will post stuff that’s from other respected folks, but for the seed lists I post it will always be bracketmatrix.

Right not Tennessee sits as the #6 overall seed which is obviously a 2 seed, team rankings gives Tennessee a 87.2% chance at a 3 seed or better as of today, and 95.2% at a 4 seed or better, so for the sake of this seed list I’ll include 1-4 seeds, and games for those teams, hopefully we can win Saturday and move that number up and look at a 3 seed as a floor going forward, but for now I’ll include 4 seeds.


Current seed list:
1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Alabama
4. Florida
——————————
5. Houston
6. TENNESSEE
7. Texas A&M
8. Purdue
——————————
9. Wisconsin
10. Iowa State
11. Kentucky
12. Texas Tech
——————————
13. Michigan
14. Arizona
15. St. John’s
16. Michigan State




Using yesterday’s schedule this is what daily updates will look like, bolded will be the team we want to root for to win as Tennessee fans.

Oklahoma vs. Florida
Houston vs. Arizona State
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Colorado vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Purdue vs. Michigan State

Oklahoma lost
Arizona State lost
Mississippi State won
Colorado lost
TCU won
Illinois lost
Michigan State won

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Today’s games:
7:00pm: Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
9:00pm: Arkansas vs. Auburn
9:00pm: Alabama vs. Missouri
9:00pm: St. John’s vs. DePaul

 

[VolCalls]

Done these every year for quite awhile, another one was started but doesn’t appear to be getting kept up with or updated so figured I would start my annual one which is also a bit of a different format. Again I like to use bracket matrix, for those that don’t know they use 100+ brackets from some of the best around the world, they then combine those and essentially create a seed list off the averages of all these brackets. For years this has proven to be the most accurate source of info, and while each year someone pretty much nails it dead on, nobody year after year is usually more accurate than their formula, so they are typically my source of info for bracketing. I will post stuff that’s from other respected folks, but for the seed lists I post it will always be bracketmatrix.

Right not Tennessee sits as the #6 overall seed which is obviously a 2 seed, team rankings gives Tennessee a 87.2% chance at a 3 seed or better as of today, and 95.2% at a 4 seed or better, so for the sake of this seed list I’ll include 1-4 seeds, and games for those teams, hopefully we can win Saturday and move that number up and look at a 3 seed as a floor going forward, but for now I’ll include 4 seeds.


Current seed list:
1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Alabama
4. Florida
——————————
5. Houston
6. TENNESSEE
7. Texas A&M
8. Purdue
——————————
9. Wisconsin
10. Iowa State
11. Kentucky
12. Texas Tech
——————————
13. Michigan
14. Arizona
15. St. John’s
16. Michigan State




Using yesterday’s schedule this is what daily updates will look like, bolded will be the team we want to root for to win as Tennessee fans.

Oklahoma vs. Florida
Houston vs. Arizona State
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Colorado vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Purdue vs. Michigan State

Oklahoma lost
Arizona State lost
Mississippi State won
Colorado lost
TCU won
Illinois lost
Michigan State won

Thanks for doing this. Love Bracket Matrix. I check it daily. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[OffTackleVol]

Done these every year for quite awhile, another one was started but doesn’t appear to be getting kept up with or updated so figured I would start my annual one which is also a bit of a different format. Again I like to use bracket matrix, for those that don’t know they use 100+ brackets from some of the best around the world, they then combine those and essentially create a seed list off the averages of all these brackets. For years this has proven to be the most accurate source of info, and while each year someone pretty much nails it dead on, nobody year after year is usually more accurate than their formula, so they are typically my source of info for bracketing. I will post stuff that’s from other respected folks, but for the seed lists I post it will always be bracketmatrix.

Right not Tennessee sits as the #6 overall seed which is obviously a 2 seed, team rankings gives Tennessee a 87.2% chance at a 3 seed or better as of today, and 95.2% at a 4 seed or better, so for the sake of this seed list I’ll include 1-4 seeds, and games for those teams, hopefully we can win Saturday and move that number up and look at a 3 seed as a floor going forward, but for now I’ll include 4 seeds.


Current seed list:
1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Alabama
4. Florida
——————————
5. Houston
6. TENNESSEE
7. Texas A&M
8. Purdue
——————————
9. Wisconsin
10. Iowa State
11. Kentucky
12. Texas Tech
——————————
13. Michigan
14. Arizona
15. St. John’s
16. Michigan State




Using yesterday’s schedule this is what daily updates will look like, bolded will be the team we want to root for to win as Tennessee fans.

Oklahoma vs. Florida
Houston vs. Arizona State
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Colorado vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Purdue vs. Michigan State

Oklahoma lost
Arizona State lost
Mississippi State won
Colorado lost
TCU won
Illinois lost
Michigan State won

Insane that 5 of the top 8 seeds are SEC teams.......history in the making.

 

[Willy14]

Done these every year for quite awhile, another one was started but doesn’t appear to be getting kept up with or updated so figured I would start my annual one which is also a bit of a different format. Again I like to use bracket matrix, for those that don’t know they use 100+ brackets from some of the best around the world, they then combine those and essentially create a seed list off the averages of all these brackets. For years this has proven to be the most accurate source of info, and while each year someone pretty much nails it dead on, nobody year after year is usually more accurate than their formula, so they are typically my source of info for bracketing. I will post stuff that’s from other respected folks, but for the seed lists I post it will always be bracketmatrix.

Right not Tennessee sits as the #6 overall seed which is obviously a 2 seed, team rankings gives Tennessee a 87.2% chance at a 3 seed or better as of today, and 95.2% at a 4 seed or better, so for the sake of this seed list I’ll include 1-4 seeds, and games for those teams, hopefully we can win Saturday and move that number up and look at a 3 seed as a floor going forward, but for now I’ll include 4 seeds.


Current seed list:
1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Alabama
4. Florida
——————————
5. Houston
6. TENNESSEE
7. Texas A&M
8. Purdue
——————————
9. Wisconsin
10. Iowa State
11. Kentucky
12. Texas Tech
——————————
13. Michigan
14. Arizona
15. St. John’s
16. Michigan State




Using yesterday’s schedule this is what daily updates will look like, bolded will be the team we want to root for to win as Tennessee fans.

Oklahoma vs. Florida
Houston vs. Arizona State
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Colorado vs. Iowa State
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Purdue vs. Michigan State

Oklahoma lost
Arizona State lost
Mississippi State won
Colorado lost
TCU won
Illinois lost
Michigan State won

Thanks for making this, one of the most enjoyable threads imo

 

[CornbreadVol]

You’re the man BTO. Started the other one but have been extremely busy, this is much much appreciated

 

[berryvol]

Bama losing tonight would be massive. Most of their remaining games aren’t really going to hurt them to lose, but with a H2H coming up and some chances for them to take several losses, we could shift some committee perception and close the gap between our resumes. I think they’re, by far, the most likely to fall off the 1 line.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Bama losing tonight would be massive. Most of their remaining games aren’t really going to hurt them to lose, but with a H2H coming up and some chances for them to take several losses, we could shift some committee perception and close the gap between our resumes. I think they’re, by far, the most likely to fall off the 1 line.

The fact they have to play us as well as Florida is big, not that those would be bad losses by any stretch, but dropping a few games down the stretch, one being to us, definitely makes us catching them more plausible.

 

[berryvol]

The fact they have to play us as well as Florida is big, not that those would be bad losses by any stretch, but dropping a few games down the stretch, one being to us, definitely makes us catching them more plausible.

Yup, that my line of thinking. They also have a few other tricky ones that they could drop. Certainly a much tougher end to their season than UF or Duke have, although Duke dropping even 1 game at this point could put them in jeopardy of dropping to the 5 spot.

 

[VolCalls]

The fact they have to play us as well as Florida is big, not that those would be bad losses by any stretch, but dropping a few games down the stretch, one being to us, definitely makes us catching them more plausible.

And the return trip to Auburn.

 

[ABtheVolsfan92]

we need houston to lose to iowa st saturday

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Yup, that my line of thinking. They also have a few other tricky ones that they could drop. Certainly a much tougher end to their season than UF or Duke have, although Duke dropping even 1 game at this point could put them in jeopardy of dropping to the 5 spot.

Yea, that Bama/Missouri game tonight is big, if Bama drops it then it really feels possible we could surpass them if we follow that up with a win against them in Knoxville.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Why was “Party” left out of the thread title?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Why was “Party” left out of the thread title?

Fixed lol

 

[ABtheVolsfan92]

Yea, that Bama/Missouri game tonight is big, if Bama drops it then it really feels possible we could surpass them if we follow that up with a win against them in Knoxville.

IMO we have to beat A&M and not trip over our feet against LSU if we do all that and beat Bama after they lost to Mizzou we take their spot

 

[chuckiepoo]

Fixed lol

“Watch Party”. Need to remove “list” if you’re adding Party.

…dude…

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Today’s games:
7:00pm: Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
9:00pm: Arkansas vs. Auburn
9:00pm: Alabama vs. Missouri
9:00pm: St. John’s vs. DePaul

Missouri our only winner of the night, but that was by far the biggest one on the schedule

 

[wtmvol]

Missouri our only winner of the night, but that was by far the biggest one on the schedule

So it goes with these types of games. Most of them are long shots and you just hope to hit on a few.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So it goes with these types of games. Most of them are long shots and you just hope to hit on a few.

Absolutely

 

[wtmvol]

Playing around with Bart Torvik's T-Rank forecast simulator. Obviously, it's not perfect, but it's kind of fun to do. Below scenarios all assume SEC semifinal loss to Auburn as well as wins over LSU and SC:

Wins over A&M and Bama had us as a 1 seed (no change whether we win or lose at Ole Miss (3rd overall)

Beat A&M, lose to Bama had us as top 2 seed (no change whether we win or lose at Ole Miss

Lose to A&M but beat Bama: 1 seed if we beat Ole Miss, 2 seed if we lose to Ole Miss

Lose to A&M, Bama, and Ole Miss: still a 2 seed

So, at this point it seems like 2 seed is most likely and also our realistic floor. Wheels falling off scenarios could lead to a 4 seed, but I don't want to think about that.

Here's another thing to consider... if you want to avoid Duke, you either have to be a 1 seed or fall behind at least 1 other SEC team, because the 4th SEC team chosen will be paired with Duke.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think there’s many folks who probably would prefer to be paired with Duke

 

[CornbreadVol]

I think there’s many folks who probably would prefer to be paired with Duke

Not me…we don’t have anyone who can guard Flagg

 

[walkenvol]

Not me…we don’t have anyone who can guard Flagg

Mashack can guard most anybody 1-4.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Not me…we don’t have anyone who can guard Flagg

Many said the same about Duke’s bigs when we played them a couple years ago, I think our physicality would cause them some issues. I also think it’s very likely they wouldn’t make it far enough to even meet up with us.

 

[VolCalls]

Playing around with Bart Torvik's T-Rank forecast simulator. Obviously, it's not perfect, but it's kind of fun to do. Below scenarios all assume SEC semifinal loss to Auburn as well as wins over LSU and SC:

Wins over A&M and Bama had us as a 1 seed (no change whether we win or lose at Ole Miss (3rd overall)

Beat A&M, lose to Bama had us as top 2 seed (no change whether we win or lose at Ole Miss

Lose to A&M but beat Bama: 1 seed if we beat Ole Miss, 2 seed if we lose to Ole Miss

Lose to A&M, Bama, and Ole Miss: still a 2 seed

So, at this point it seems like 2 seed is most likely and also our realistic floor. Wheels falling off scenarios could lead to a 4 seed, but I don't want to think about that.

Here's another thing to consider... if you want to avoid Duke, you either have to be a 1 seed or fall behind at least 1 other SEC team, because the 4th SEC team chosen will be paired with Duke.

Personally, I would love to be paired with Duke versus the other three SEC teams who have played us already. But I’m hoping we play ourselves into the 2nd or 3rd #1 seed and don’t have to worry about it - then our #2 seed would likely be Iowa State or Wisconsin (assuming Houston is the #1 or #2 out West).