According to Hard Rock Bets....

[Boca Vol]

UT opens as a 4.5 point favorite. Interesting.

 

[GBO18]

We are the better team. Just have to show up.

 

[Doctrippin]

UT opens as a 4.5 point favorite. Interesting.

It's because the odds of beating a top 10 team 3 times in a season aren't very good.

 

[utvols74]

Barnes has learned to scheme better at half - UCLA was a master-class by him.

 

[mscc1998]

I just hope the officials don't call a real tight game.
LET THEM PLAY!

 

[Other_Guy]

The Chaz effect.

 

[Other_Guy]

Barnes has learned to scheme better at half - UCLA was a master-class by him.

Thought it was one of his better games.

 

[kiddiedoc]

It's because the odds of beating a top 10 team 3 times in a season aren't very good.

From Grok:

Studies of NCAA conference tournaments suggest that sweeping a season series (going 3-0 against an opponent) happens in roughly 60-70% of cases when a team has won the first two regular-season games, though this varies by competitiveness of the teams. If the teams are closely matched (e.g., similar rankings or seedings), the odds drop closer to 50-50 as the underdog adapts.

Without specific team data—like their records, margins of victory, or venue for the third game—I’d estimate the odds generally favor the 2-0 team at around 65-75%. This accounts for their proven edge while leaving room for the losing team to pull off an upset with better preparation or luck.

I had heard on the radio that the idea you posted was not actually true, so I dug a little deeper.

 

[kckempf]

From Grok:

I had heard on the radio that the idea you posted was not actually true, so I dug a little deeper.

Grok not being especially good at math, I'd go elsewhere for guidance here.

If you just take raw numbers, most teams that have the same opponent 3 times have a large quality difference with that opponent. If you have a 95% chance to beat a weaker conference foe, you're going to sweep them 85% of the time. If it's a 50-50 matchup, the likelihood of a 3 game sweep is 12.5%. We're probably at least at 50-50 with Kentucky, so the likelihood that they get a 3 game sweep is pretty low! But that doesn't have any bearing on what's going to actually happen on Friday. It'll just be an illustration of how rare it is if we falter and they get a 3 game sweep against a team that is in the least an even match.

 

[cncchris33]

Grok not being especially good at math, I'd go elsewhere for guidance here.

If you just take raw numbers, most teams that have the same opponent 3 times have a large quality difference with that opponent. If you have a 95% chance to beat a weaker conference foe, you're going to sweep them 85% of the time. If it's a 50-50 matchup, the likelihood of a 3 game sweep is 12.5%. We're probably at least at 50-50 with Kentucky, so the likelihood that they get a 3 game sweep is pretty low! But that doesn't have any bearing on what's going to actually happen on Friday. It'll just be an illustration of how rare it is if we falter and they get a 3 game sweep against a team that is in the least an even match.

Yes, opponent strength definitely comes into play, as you said. If you assume Tennessee and Kentucky are equally good, then it essentially becomes a stats and probability solution, like flipping a coin and it landing on heads 3 straight times. Those odds are 1 in 8, or as you said, 12.5%.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Yes, opponent strength definitely comes into play, as you said. If you assume Tennessee and Kentucky are equally good, then it essentially becomes a stats and probability solution, like flipping a coin and it landing on heads 3 straight times. Those odds are 1 in 8, or as you said, 12.5%.

Pop quiz:

If you flip a coin 3 times, and the first two times it is heads, then what is the probability that the third flip will also be heads?

 

[cncchris33]

Pop quiz:

If you flip a coin 3 times, and the first two times it is heads, then what is the probability that the third flip will also be heads?

50% because you're asking for the probability of a single instance.

 

[Jonboy]

I tried playing around with Grok as well and I think it's misinterpreting some of the data in this FiveThirtyEight article: It Really Is Harder To Beat A Team The Third Time In Men’s College Basketball

They actually take KenPom ratings into account here. Currently, the Vols have a NetRtg on KenPom of 31.21. Kentucky's is 24.96. That's a 6.25 advantage for the Vols, which is relevant for this next bit.

Teams with edges of at least 3 but less than 6 points in adjusted efficiency won about 63.3 percent of third meetings when they came off two wins against the same opponent, 66.3 percent when they came off a split and a whopping 74.3 percent (109 out of 190) when they lost both previous meetings.

With an edge of at least 6 but less than 9 points in Pomeroy’s ratings, the better teams won 72.5 percent of the time overall, 79.6 percent after a split and 84.8 percent after two losses.

This would obviously bode very well for us if it holds.