StepCross
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Came up in the transfer thread but maybe deserves its own space.
3-point percentage
2024 Vols: 34.4% (153rd nationally) Knecht shot 40%, everyone else sucked
2025 Vols: 33.8% (182nd nationally) Lanier shot 40%, everyone else sucked
2026 outlook:
- Gillespie shot 41% at Maryland last year on high volume. He shot even better, 42%, in B10 play. No one who takes a decent number of shots has shot 41% for the vols since Admiral Schofield, believe it or not.
- Abram shot 37% last year at La Tech, and shot 36% his freshman year at Ole Miss, and 36% on his career. He's pretty much a 36% shooter; the last two years nobody shot 36-37% other than Lanier and Knecht. The closest was actually Mashack, both years, but on miniscule volume (1 make every other game). All we would theoretically need from Abram is to hit that corner three on the kick out.
- Ament is a mystery, of course, because he's not played a college game yet. But he shot 42% in one of his HS leagues, is known for his shooting, and is considered a top 5 draft pick already. Decent chance he can shoot (it is, after all, the main skill in this sport). If Ament can't make shots, we are well and truly boned, and nothing we do on the margins will help much tbh.
2-point percentage
2024 Vols: 51% (159th nationally) led by Tobe (59%), Aidoo (53%), Knecht (50%). Honorable mention to JP Estrella (71% on low volume)
2025 Vols 54% (67th nationally) led by Cade (64%), Igor (60%), Felix (59%), Mashack (51%), zz (50%)
2026 outlook:
- We keep Cade and Felix.
- We add Estrella (potentially excellent but who knows); Carey (55% on high volume, 57% in conference play in the brutal 2025 SEC); Gillespie (51%, again on high volume); Ament (??, but again, projected top 5 draft pick).
- It's odd that we improved so much in 2-point percentage from 24 to 25; I think most fans would assume 24 was better due to Knecht's ability to attack the rim out of the iso and/or across the ball screen. Some of that was probably zz creating easy finishes via the drive and dish. Some of it was likely offensive rebounding. But the reality is we are losing very little from 2-point land and adding a lot of raw talent. We should be better this year.
Turnovers
2024 Vols: 14.5% (34th nationally)
2025 Vols: 16.1% (106th)
2026 outlook:
- This was the main point of offensive decline from 2024 to 2025: we turned it over more. Mostly this was on zakai, or rather on the fact that we had no real slasher except for zakai. In 2024 he was able to just run the offense and give it to knecht when we needed a bucket. In 2025, though, we didn't have a knecht. Zeigler was the slasher as well as the point, and it made his turnover rate go up.
- But with that said, Lanier and Gainey didn't turn the ball over at ALL. Abram does, and Ament will be a true freshman with a skinny build who is asked to do stuff. I expect our wing turnovers will rise a little.
- Gillespie doesn't turn it over much, though, and can create his own shots at all three levels. I put a down arrow indicating that we will be slightly worse this year, but it actually could go the other way due to Gillespie's steadiness. Not sure, but I'd say it will be close either way.
Offensive Rebounding
2024 Vols: 32.2% (74th nationally)
2025 Vols: 35.6% (23rd) led by Cade (14.3%), Felix (11.8%), Igor (9%)
2026 outlook:
- We return our best two offensive rebounders.
- Estrella's freshman numbers are similar to Igor's senior numbers (9%), so if he is the main guy after two years in the weight room, one would assume we at least don't lose anything. And we could gain.
- Carey posted a season-long 12.5%, which would be better than Felix but worse than Cade. However, in SEC play he posted 15.6%, which led the league. To reiterate, Jaylen Carey was the SEC's #1 offensive rebounder in conference play. More than anything else, I reckon this is why Barnes wanted him. Barnes has been known to enjoy an offensive rebound.
- Offensive rebounding is likely the biggest single reason we improved offensively despite losing Knecht. The 3-ball got slightly worse, as did turnovers. 2-pointers got much better but it was via Cade and Felix and Igor...exactly the same three guys that led the team in OR. Also three guys not known for having a post game or a drive game. Adding Carey and Estrella should let us creep into the top 20 in offensive rebounding.
Getting to the line
2024: 147th
2025: 103rd
2026 outlook: ??
- Getting to the line is important, but is the least correlated to offensive output of all the major stats.
- both the 2024 and 2025 teams were mid at this.
- Zakai, Jordan, and Mashack got to the FT line last year at a decent clip.
- Gillespie does not, really
- Carey was better at it than Igor or Felix, but still not overwhelming. This could change: RB seems to like the bulldog mentality, and Carey has the strength and drive (led the league in OR%, etc.)
- Slightly odd that we were pretty much led by guards in this stat (small guards, even). Florida, e.g., was led by Haugh and Condon. We lacked a post game last year, frankly, and the hope is that Carey and Estrella provide one.
Overall outlook:
We appear to have improved the roster from both 2 and 3, and in offensive rebounding. Turnover % is not clear, but Gillespie is not remotely turnover prone. Ability to get to the line is also not clear, but it was not good the last two years and we seem to be adding some post play, which would help.
I know everyone is worried about the 2 position, but...on paper this team is already an entire tier better offensively than the last two. Chance to be a top 5 offense if Ament pans out.
The defense, though, could be a full tier worse; no way to tell at the moment.
3-point percentage
2024 Vols: 34.4% (153rd nationally) Knecht shot 40%, everyone else sucked
2025 Vols: 33.8% (182nd nationally) Lanier shot 40%, everyone else sucked
2026 outlook:
- Gillespie shot 41% at Maryland last year on high volume. He shot even better, 42%, in B10 play. No one who takes a decent number of shots has shot 41% for the vols since Admiral Schofield, believe it or not.
- Abram shot 37% last year at La Tech, and shot 36% his freshman year at Ole Miss, and 36% on his career. He's pretty much a 36% shooter; the last two years nobody shot 36-37% other than Lanier and Knecht. The closest was actually Mashack, both years, but on miniscule volume (1 make every other game). All we would theoretically need from Abram is to hit that corner three on the kick out.
- Ament is a mystery, of course, because he's not played a college game yet. But he shot 42% in one of his HS leagues, is known for his shooting, and is considered a top 5 draft pick already. Decent chance he can shoot (it is, after all, the main skill in this sport). If Ament can't make shots, we are well and truly boned, and nothing we do on the margins will help much tbh.
2-point percentage
2024 Vols: 51% (159th nationally) led by Tobe (59%), Aidoo (53%), Knecht (50%). Honorable mention to JP Estrella (71% on low volume)
2025 Vols 54% (67th nationally) led by Cade (64%), Igor (60%), Felix (59%), Mashack (51%), zz (50%)
2026 outlook:
- We keep Cade and Felix.
- We add Estrella (potentially excellent but who knows); Carey (55% on high volume, 57% in conference play in the brutal 2025 SEC); Gillespie (51%, again on high volume); Ament (??, but again, projected top 5 draft pick).
- It's odd that we improved so much in 2-point percentage from 24 to 25; I think most fans would assume 24 was better due to Knecht's ability to attack the rim out of the iso and/or across the ball screen. Some of that was probably zz creating easy finishes via the drive and dish. Some of it was likely offensive rebounding. But the reality is we are losing very little from 2-point land and adding a lot of raw talent. We should be better this year.
Turnovers
2024 Vols: 14.5% (34th nationally)
2025 Vols: 16.1% (106th)
2026 outlook:
- This was the main point of offensive decline from 2024 to 2025: we turned it over more. Mostly this was on zakai, or rather on the fact that we had no real slasher except for zakai. In 2024 he was able to just run the offense and give it to knecht when we needed a bucket. In 2025, though, we didn't have a knecht. Zeigler was the slasher as well as the point, and it made his turnover rate go up.
- But with that said, Lanier and Gainey didn't turn the ball over at ALL. Abram does, and Ament will be a true freshman with a skinny build who is asked to do stuff. I expect our wing turnovers will rise a little.
- Gillespie doesn't turn it over much, though, and can create his own shots at all three levels. I put a down arrow indicating that we will be slightly worse this year, but it actually could go the other way due to Gillespie's steadiness. Not sure, but I'd say it will be close either way.
Offensive Rebounding
2024 Vols: 32.2% (74th nationally)
2025 Vols: 35.6% (23rd) led by Cade (14.3%), Felix (11.8%), Igor (9%)
2026 outlook:
- We return our best two offensive rebounders.
- Estrella's freshman numbers are similar to Igor's senior numbers (9%), so if he is the main guy after two years in the weight room, one would assume we at least don't lose anything. And we could gain.
- Carey posted a season-long 12.5%, which would be better than Felix but worse than Cade. However, in SEC play he posted 15.6%, which led the league. To reiterate, Jaylen Carey was the SEC's #1 offensive rebounder in conference play. More than anything else, I reckon this is why Barnes wanted him. Barnes has been known to enjoy an offensive rebound.
- Offensive rebounding is likely the biggest single reason we improved offensively despite losing Knecht. The 3-ball got slightly worse, as did turnovers. 2-pointers got much better but it was via Cade and Felix and Igor...exactly the same three guys that led the team in OR. Also three guys not known for having a post game or a drive game. Adding Carey and Estrella should let us creep into the top 20 in offensive rebounding.
Getting to the line
2024: 147th
2025: 103rd
2026 outlook: ??
- Getting to the line is important, but is the least correlated to offensive output of all the major stats.
- both the 2024 and 2025 teams were mid at this.
- Zakai, Jordan, and Mashack got to the FT line last year at a decent clip.
- Gillespie does not, really
- Carey was better at it than Igor or Felix, but still not overwhelming. This could change: RB seems to like the bulldog mentality, and Carey has the strength and drive (led the league in OR%, etc.)
- Slightly odd that we were pretty much led by guards in this stat (small guards, even). Florida, e.g., was led by Haugh and Condon. We lacked a post game last year, frankly, and the hope is that Carey and Estrella provide one.
Overall outlook:
We appear to have improved the roster from both 2 and 3, and in offensive rebounding. Turnover % is not clear, but Gillespie is not remotely turnover prone. Ability to get to the line is also not clear, but it was not good the last two years and we seem to be adding some post play, which would help.
I know everyone is worried about the 2 position, but...on paper this team is already an entire tier better offensively than the last two. Chance to be a top 5 offense if Ament pans out.
The defense, though, could be a full tier worse; no way to tell at the moment.
