2026 BCR (Blue Chip Ratio) Projection

[25vol]

Hello everyone. I shared this on the RF the other day and figured I’d share it here as well.

Original message:
I’ve been building this BCR chart for a few years now, and was able to correctly predict we’d cross 50% this year based on how last year’s class finished. With the new BCR numbers released yesterday, I’ve projected 2026 to hit around 59%.

I originally pulled the data using Python from the 247 Composite rankings going back to 2005, by adjusting the year in the URL (https://247sports.com/season/2025-football/compositeteamrankings/).

For each class, I counted the 4- and 5-star commits, then used a 4-year weighted average with typical roster turnover rates to estimate roster BCR.

I also scaled the numbers to match official BCR figures where available (2020, 2021, 2024, 2025).

Be cautious with anything before 2010 since the data gets a little fuzzy, but the trend since then is accurate.

TLDR: CJH is doing a damn good job recruiting, and right now it’s very likely the highest BCR we’ve had since the early 2000s.

 

[vfl_0x4d]

Hello everyone. I shared this on the RF the other day and figured I’d share it here as well.

Original message:
I’ve been building this BCR chart for a few years now, and was able to correctly predict we’d cross 50% this year based on how last year’s class finished. With the new BCR numbers released yesterday, I’ve projected 2026 to hit around 59%.

I originally pulled the data using Python from the 247 Composite rankings going back to 2005, by adjusting the year in the URL (https://247sports.com/season/2025-football/compositeteamrankings/).

For each class, I counted the 4- and 5-star commits, then used a 4-year weighted average with typical roster turnover rates to estimate roster BCR.

I also scaled the numbers to match official BCR figures where available (2020, 2021, 2024, 2025).

Be cautious with anything before 2010 since the data gets a little fuzzy, but the trend since then is accurate.

TLDR: CJH is doing a damn good job recruiting, and right now it’s very likely the highest BCR we’ve had since the early 2000s.

Very cool. Love the data. A couple of questions…1) does the roster BCR take into account the roster defections? In particular I’m thinking about the defections after Pruitt was fired. And 2) what’s the rationale behind the 50% BCR being a milestone with regards to title contention? I wonder if that’s a meaningful number in light of the way the Georgia, Bama, Texas, etc are recruiting? Would be interesting to see their BCR numbers.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

Very cool. Love the data. A couple of questions…1) does the roster BCR take into account the roster defections? In particular I’m thinking about the defections after Pruitt was fired. And 2) what’s the rationale behind the 50% BCR being a milestone with regards to title contention? I wonder if that’s a meaningful number in light of the way the Georgia, Bama, Texas, etc are recruiting? Would be interesting to see their BCR numbers.

Those three are all above 85% if memory serves.

CJH has done a fantastic job of winning with what he has and closing the talent gap. If this staff can continue with the recruiting improvements, i do think they have a chance to produce a special season in the next couple of years.

 

[25vol]

Very cool. Love the data. A couple of questions…1) does the roster BCR take into account the roster defections? In particular I’m thinking about the defections after Pruitt was fired. And 2) what’s the rationale behind the 50% BCR being a milestone with regards to title contention? I wonder if that’s a meaningful number in light of the way the Georgia, Bama, Texas, etc are recruiting? Would be interesting to see their BCR numbers.

Thanks, glad you liked it.
1. The roster BCR uses a 4-year weighted average with turnover built in (about 32 to 38% per year). I used the higher end in coaching change years like after Pruitt to reflect extra attrition. Tracking individual transfers would be a huge pain, which is probably why the official BCR doesn’t either. There’s just not great data on portal movement, and I agree with the logic that national titles aren’t built through the portal. Bud even mentioned this in his 2025 BCR article that when transfers are included BCR drops across the board since most aren’t highly rated or are depth guys.

2. The 50% mark comes from Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio. No team has won a title in the modern era without hitting it (FSU in 2014 was reportedly above 50%). That said, Georgia and Bama are usually 80% or more.

 

[miket4god]

Those three are all above 85% if memory serves.

CJH has done a fantastic job of winning with what he has and closing the talent gap. If this staff can continue with the recruiting improvements, i do think they have a chance to produce a special season in the next couple of years.

Ohio St is at 90%. Bama is at 89%. Georgia 84%

 

[vegasvolfan]

Hello everyone. I shared this on the RF the other day and figured I’d share it here as well.

Original message:
I’ve been building this BCR chart for a few years now, and was able to correctly predict we’d cross 50% this year based on how last year’s class finished. With the new BCR numbers released yesterday, I’ve projected 2026 to hit around 59%.

I originally pulled the data using Python from the 247 Composite rankings going back to 2005, by adjusting the year in the URL (https://247sports.com/season/2025-football/compositeteamrankings/).

For each class, I counted the 4- and 5-star commits, then used a 4-year weighted average with typical roster turnover rates to estimate roster BCR.

I also scaled the numbers to match official BCR figures where available (2020, 2021, 2024, 2025).

Be cautious with anything before 2010 since the data gets a little fuzzy, but the trend since then is accurate.

TLDR: CJH is doing a damn good job recruiting, and right now it’s very likely the highest BCR we’ve had since the early 2000s.

Very cool, thank you.

 

[vfl_0x4d]

Ohio St is at 90%. Bama is at 89%. Georgia 84%

Gracious. That’s insane.

 

[Tnphil]

School BCR

Alabama 89%
Ohio State 89%
Georgia 84%
Texas A&M 82%
Oregon 78%
Texas 78%
LSU 73%
Notre Dame 73%
Oklahoma 70%
Penn State 68%
Miami 64%
Florida 64%
Auburn 64%
Michigan 57%
USC 57%
Clemson 55%
Tennessee 54%
Florida State 54%

 

[vavolfan6]

Kind of surprised to see the BCR was as high as it was in 2021 for Heupel in year 1. We lost alot of transfers and that incoming class was not great.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Kind of surprised to see the BCR was as high as it was in 2021 for Heupel in year 1. We lost alot of transfers and that incoming class was not great.

Heupel took over at the absolute best time in CFB history to take over a program in dire straits because of the transfer portal and NIL kicking off. It helped him bring other guys in to off-set losses and rebuild much faster than he would have had to the old way. Having Pruitt do what he did to our program is never a good thing, but it would have been far worse if it had happened in say 2011, instead of 2021, without the tools of the transfer portal and NIL to use.