I asked Chat GPT for Rankings

#1
Tman44

Tman44

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#1

Step 1: Identify Historical Success Indicators​


Looking at the CFP + BCS era (2000-2024), the strongest predictors of being a top team by year’s end are:


  1. Record (Win %) → Teams with ≤1 loss usually finish Top 10.
  2. Point Differential (per game) → Elite teams average +18 to +25 PPG.
  3. Strength of Schedule (SoS) → Teams that beat other ranked programs are favored.
  4. Turnover Margin → +0.7 per game or higher strongly correlates with CFP teams.
  5. Quality Wins → Top 15 teams they’ve defeated matter more than blowouts vs cupcakes.
  6. Road/Neutral Wins → CFP/NY6 teams often prove themselves away from home.


Step 2: My Scoring Formula (Most Probable Success Index, “MPSI”)​



MPSI = (Win% × 40)
+ (Point Differential per game × 1.2)
+ (Strength of Schedule Index × 15)
+ (Quality Wins × 6)
+ (Turnover Margin × 10)
+ (Road/Neutral Win Bonus × 4 each)


  • Scale: ~70+ = playoff caliber, 55–69 = NY6 bowl range, 40–54 = solid Top 20.


Step 3: Apply to 2025 Season So Far​


Using actual early-season data (PF/PA, quality of opponents), here’s the most probable outcome rankings if the season ended today:



🔝 Honest Top 20 (MPSI Ranking)​


  1. Ohio State (2–0) – Win vs Texas, 70-0 vs Grambling. Balance, depth, quality win → MPSI 79
  2. Oregon (2–0) – +112 differential, efficient QB play, high SoS upcoming → MPSI 77
  3. Florida State (2–0) – Upset Bama, +88 margin → MPSI 74
  4. LSU (1–0) – Road win at Clemson, efficient QB play → MPSI 72
  5. Penn State (2–0) – Dominant defensive metrics, balanced offense → MPSI 70
  6. Georgia (2–0) – Solid wins, returning champs pedigree → MPSI 69
  7. Iowa State (3–0) – 3 wins + solid differential, weaker SoS so far → MPSI 68
  8. Illinois (2–0) – Balanced attack, +75 margin, big SoS boost pending → MPSI 66
  9. Tennessee (2–0) – +74 margin, SEC schedule boost → MPSI 65
  10. Ole Miss (2–0) – +63 margin, consistent offense → MPSI 63
  11. Miami (1–0) – Beat Notre Dame, narrow but quality win → MPSI 62
  12. South Carolina (1–0) – Statement win, strong efficiency → MPSI 61
  13. Texas (1–1) – Loss to OSU but competitive, SoS keeps them afloat → MPSI 60
  14. Notre Dame (0–1) – Close loss to Miami, still solid roster metrics → MPSI 59
  15. Clemson (0–1) – Lost to LSU but defense was competitive → MPSI 57
  16. Michigan (1–0) – Beat Oklahoma, balanced but low sample size → MPSI 56
  17. SMU (1–0) – Solid win vs Baylor, efficiency + turnover margin → MPSI 55
  18. Oklahoma (0–1) – Competitive vs Michigan, SoS saves them → MPSI 53
  19. Texas A&M (1–0) – Win vs UTSA, but unimpressive schedule → MPSI 52
  20. Utah (1–0) – Win vs UCLA, good differential → MPSI 51
 
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#2
#2
Tman44 said:

Step 1: Identify Historical Success Indicators​


Looking at the CFP + BCS era (2000-2024), the strongest predictors of being a top team by year’s end are:


  1. Record (Win %) → Teams with ≤1 loss usually finish Top 10.
  2. Point Differential (per game) → Elite teams average +18 to +25 PPG.
  3. Strength of Schedule (SoS) → Teams that beat other ranked programs are favored.
  4. Turnover Margin → +0.7 per game or higher strongly correlates with CFP teams.
  5. Quality Wins → Top 15 teams they’ve defeated matter more than blowouts vs cupcakes.
  6. Road/Neutral Wins → CFP/NY6 teams often prove themselves away from home.


Step 2: My Scoring Formula (Most Probable Success Index, “MPSI”)​



MPSI = (Win% × 40)
+ (Point Differential per game × 1.2)
+ (Strength of Schedule Index × 15)
+ (Quality Wins × 6)
+ (Turnover Margin × 10)
+ (Road/Neutral Win Bonus × 4 each)


  • Scale: ~70+ = playoff caliber, 55–69 = NY6 bowl range, 40–54 = solid Top 20.


Step 3: Apply to 2025 Season So Far​


Using actual early-season data (PF/PA, quality of opponents), here’s the most probable outcome rankings if the season ended today:



🔝 Honest Top 20 (MPSI Ranking)​


  1. Ohio State (2–0) – Win vs Texas, 70-0 vs Grambling. Balance, depth, quality win → MPSI 79
  2. Oregon (2–0) – +112 differential, efficient QB play, high SoS upcoming → MPSI 77
  3. Florida State (2–0) – Upset Bama, +88 margin → MPSI 74
  4. LSU (1–0) – Road win at Clemson, efficient QB play → MPSI 72
  5. Penn State (2–0) – Dominant defensive metrics, balanced offense → MPSI 70
  6. Georgia (2–0) – Solid wins, returning champs pedigree → MPSI 69
  7. Iowa State (3–0) – 3 wins + solid differential, weaker SoS so far → MPSI 68
  8. Illinois (2–0) – Balanced attack, +75 margin, big SoS boost pending → MPSI 66
  9. Tennessee (2–0) – +74 margin, SEC schedule boost → MPSI 65
  10. Ole Miss (2–0) – +63 margin, consistent offense → MPSI 63
  11. Miami (1–0) – Beat Notre Dame, narrow but quality win → MPSI 62
  12. South Carolina (1–0) – Statement win, strong efficiency → MPSI 61
  13. Texas (1–1) – Loss to OSU but competitive, SoS keeps them afloat → MPSI 60
  14. Notre Dame (0–1) – Close loss to Miami, still solid roster metrics → MPSI 59
  15. Clemson (0–1) – Lost to LSU but defense was competitive → MPSI 57
  16. Michigan (1–0) – Beat Oklahoma, balanced but low sample size → MPSI 56
  17. SMU (1–0) – Solid win vs Baylor, efficiency + turnover margin → MPSI 55
  18. Oklahoma (0–1) – Competitive vs Michigan, SoS saves them → MPSI 53
  19. Texas A&M (1–0) – Win vs UTSA, but unimpressive schedule → MPSI 52
  20. Utah (1–0) – Win vs UCLA, good differential → MPSI 51
Click to expand...

Looks better than the AP Poll although SMU makes no sense.
 
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#8
#8
HATE, simply hate being ranked high early on. Fate worse than death for the Vols. Move us up a few spots and keep the Vols hungry. Standings during the year mean nothing. Only one poll counts.
 
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