10-2 is 🚫 the standard for making the CFP.

#1
Ned Ray McWorkher

Ned Ray McWorkher

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#3
A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy- and will drop 3 -4 before TN.
 
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#7
#7
vol94 said:
A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy.
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10-2 would assume we lost to Bama and beat OU, correct?

If.so, then.yes 10-2 may be difficult to get in ahead of Bama, UGA, and Ole Miss.

That said, it would not surprise me to see 5 from the SEC.
 
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#12
#12
Since most appear to think Bama, Georgia, A&M and Ole Miss are lock ins - let's look at them.

- Bama has 1 loss outside of the SEC, they can afford only 1 loss in the SEC - they have Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma left. They can only afford one loss among them. That would get the in the SEC title game where they could get their 3rd loss. There is also Auburn which can always be a wild card type game for them, and it is at Auburn.

- Georgia has Ole Miss and Texas, either Georgia is going to get their second loss or Ole Miss will have their first. They play a much-improved Georgia Tech, last game. They also play Mississippi State at Starksville.

- A&M has LSU, Missouri and Texas and all are road games though the Texas game may be a neutral site.

- Ole Miss has Georgia and Oklahoma, and at Mississippi State, all are road games. I would normally say Ole Miss has the easiest path, but all of those key games are on the road and it is not easy to win on the road in the SEC.

Most are expecting the teams who always win to win and maybe they will - but we have already seen quite a few OT and very close games, not just in the SEC but other conferences as well.

The other factor with a second loss is when it occurs - the later in the season it happens, the harder it is regardless of who you are.
 
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#13
#13
VolCalls said:
That rule doesn’t apply to the Pac 12. If it did they would’ve had one of those two teams in last year.
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Correct the 5 conference champions are from:

- SEC
- Big 10
- ACC
- Big 12
- Highest ranked P5 champion

PAC 12 was not factored into that at all. They like Notre Dame can only get a bid by being in the at large bids.
 
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#14
#14
They're not leaving a 10-2 SEC team out unless in a really bizarre scenario. There's not enough wins for a bunch of teams to all be 10-2, unless you actually think the SEC as a whole sucks or will suck.
 
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#15
#15
volfan102455 said:
Correct the 5 conference champions are from:

- SEC
- Big 10
- ACC
- Big 12
- Highest ranked P5 champion

PAC 12 was not factored into that at all. They like Notre Dame can only get a bid by being in the at large bids.
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Highest ranked G5 champion

But I knew that’s what you meant, just clarity for those who don’t.
 
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#17
#17
10-2 is no guarantee for Army. Or Iowa State. Or Cincinnati.

But any SEC or B10 team at 10-2 or better, they're gonna be in the playoffs. There just won't be that many of them, after the entire season plays out.

The NCAA and CFP can put whatever they wish on their web site...and it can even be true in general. But not for the big boys. Being at or near the top of those two conferences, that's too powerful for the Committee to ignore.

Go Vols!
 
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#18
#18
volfan102455 said:
Since most appear to think Bama, Georgia, A&M and Ole Miss are lock ins - let's look at them.

- Bama has 1 loss outside of the SEC, they can afford only 1 loss in the SEC - they have Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma left. They can only afford one loss among them. That would get the in the SEC title game where they could get their 3rd loss. There is also Auburn which can always be a wild card type game for them, and it is at Auburn.

- Georgia has Ole Miss and Texas, either Georgia is going to get their second loss or Ole Miss will have their first. They play a much-improved Georgia Tech, last game. They also play Mississippi State at Starksville.

- A&M has LSU, Missouri and Texas and all are road games though the Texas game may be a neutral site.

- Ole Miss has Georgia and Oklahoma, and at Mississippi State, all are road games. I would normally say Ole Miss has the easiest path, but all of those key games are on the road and it is not easy to win on the road in the SEC.

Most are expecting the teams who always win to win and maybe they will - but we have already seen quite a few OT and very close games, not just in the SEC but other conferences as well.

The other factor with a second loss is when it occurs - the later in the season it happens, the harder it is regardless of who you are.
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A&M plays Texas in Austin. Definitely not a neutral site.
 
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#19
#19
Strength of Schedule is a BS metric.

First, transitivity does not hold in college football. For example, the are a few years when Kentucky beat Florida, Florida beat Tennessee, and Tennessee beat Kentucky.

Second, imagine world where SEC teams get most of the talent (i.e., have the highest blue-chip ratios in the nation) and we have complete parity in the SEC due to transfers and NIL. In this world, assume all teams have a 5-4 or 4-5 conference record due this parity in talent, win their two "give me" games, and win or lose against their P4 opponent. In this world, a team's record will vary between 6 - 6 and 8 - 4. Most SEC teams would not be in the top 25 based on their records, as most of the SEC teams' games are against SEC teams with mediocre records. Strength of Schedule would indicate poor ratings for SEC teams and keep them out of the playoffs.
 
#20
#20
IndianaVol said:
10-2 would assume we lost to Bama and beat OU, correct?

If.so, then.yes 10-2 may be difficult to get in ahead of Bama, UGA, and Ole Miss.

That said, it would not surprise me to see 5 from the SEC.
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And beat Florida at the swamp, which we haven't done since George W was in office.

I still think 9-3 is where we finish. I think we lose to Bama and split between FL and OK.

I'm just going to keep saying it. We are not good enough on defense to be a playoff team. We've been opportunistic at times on D, where they created a timely sack or a turnover that really bailed us out. But you cannot rely on that every week. We are too porous on the interior of the D line and our ends cannot set the edge to save their lives.
 
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#22
#22
Other_Guy said:
They're not leaving a 10-2 SEC team out unless in a really bizarre scenario. There's not enough wins for a bunch of teams to all be 10-2, unless you actually think the SEC as a whole sucks or will suck.
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I think the only way they would is if you had five 11-1/10-2 teams + a 10-2 Penn State, 11-1/10-2 Indiana, 11-1/12-0 Ohio State, and 12-0/11-1 Oregon.

From there you would have following:

1-ACC Champ
2-Big Ten Champ
3-Big Twelve Champs
4-SEC Champ
5-G5
6-1 Loss Big Ten
7-1 Loss Big Ten
8-2 Loss Big Ten (assuming Penn State)


So you have 4 spots for 5 11-1/10-2 teams.

The easiest route for Tennessee is to win at Bama and losing another game. A 10-2 Tennessee with a win vs Bama ensures Bama has 2 losses.

Georgia will play Ole Miss, Texas will play A&M. Having A&M and Ole Miss win causes Texas and Georgia to fall into 2 loss category.

The good news for Tennessee is we will be favored in every remaining game except for Bama and that is solely because it is a road game.

OU will not have their QB the next few weeks so good chance they will drop a few games to eliminate themselves as OU would be second toughest game remaining.

What gets tricky is if Texas beats A&M and Georgia beats Ole Miss. We could see a situation where there is a host of 11-1 teams in the SEC and that boots out the 10-2 SEC/Big Ten Teams.

I think we will be fine. I'm not convinced Bama is real deal. I think Stockton just played to his median and had an anomaly game vs us in Neyland.
 
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#23
#23
Brave Volunteer said:
And beat Florida at the swamp, which we haven't done since George W was in office.

I still think 9-3 is where we finish. I think we lose to Bama and split between FL and OK.

I'm just going to keep saying it. We are not good enough on defense to be a playoff team. We've been opportunistic at times on D, where they created a timely sack or a turnover that really bailed us out. But you cannot rely on that every week. We are too porous on the interior of the D line and our ends cannot set the edge to save their lives.
Click to expand...

I don't get the the people being scared of an OU team that may or may not have their QB while coming to Neyland off a schedule that featured Ole Miss, Texas, and a road game to Columbia.

OU is not that good
 
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#25
#25
Screenshot 2025-09-30 at 5.51.43 AM.png
Made a quick chart of the current ranked SEC teams and their remaining ranked games.

Do with it what you will, but I refuse to believe that OU and Vandy will survive their schedule and only lose 1 game so the end at best 10-2. LSU, Alabama, and Texas also have a tricky remaining schedule.

The best scenario for Tennessee is to just have Ole Miss and Texas A&M run the table while going 11-1 ourselves.
 
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