Beating Alabama will get us the win we need to get to the playoffs

#9
#9
Flogballs said:
This is a dumb argument to have at this point in the season. Simply based on probabilities you can’t say we’d be guaranteed to make the playoffs. A lot of football to be played
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I think it's a pretty confident bet if we finish 10-2 we get into the playoffs. We were 10-2 last year and drew the #7 seed in the tournament.
 
#10
#10
Flogballs said:
This is a dumb argument to have at this point in the season. Simply based on probabilities you can’t say we’d be guaranteed to make the playoffs. A lot of football to be played
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Agreed. In a season where teams in the NCAA and NFL just don't seem to really want to Win, many things can and will happen between now and December.
 
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#11
#11
Flogballs said:
This is a dumb argument to have at this point in the season. Simply based on probabilities you can’t say we’d be guaranteed to make the playoffs. A lot of football to be played
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No, it’s not dumb. It is supported by history. Hell, 2-loss teams made it into the 4-team playoff fairly regularly.

A 2-loss SEC has a very, very high probability of making it into a 12- or 16-team playoff nearly every time. There might be an occasion where it doesn’t happen, but it will be very rare.

In fact, I think there is a much higher probability of a 3-loss SEC team making it into even a 12-team playoff than a 2-loss SEC team being left out.
 
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#12
#12
EZE said:
No, it’s not dumb. It is supported by history. Hell, 2-loss teams made it into the 4-team playoff fairly regularly.

A 2-loss SEC has a very, very high probability of making it into a 12- or 16-team playoff nearly every time. There might be an occasion where it doesn’t happen, but it will be very rare.

In fact, I think there is a much higher probability of a 3-loss SEC team making it into even a 12-team playoff than a 2-loss SEC team being left out.
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Nothing is guaranteed my man. Like I said we’d have a great chance. But too much football left to be played
 
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#14
#14
Flogballs said:
Nothing is guaranteed my man. Like I said we’d have a great chance. But too much football left to be played
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There are only so many ways the season can play out with us ending up 10-2. Every one of those paths pretty much guarantees us a spot in the CFP.

Lose to Bama, drop from #11 to about #15 or #17, but then beat Kentucky ... then Oklahoma ... then New Mexico St ... then Florida ... and then Vandy. Make that 5-0 run to close the season, and I guarantee you we climb back up from the #15 or #17 spot, wherever, into the Top 10. Which guarantees us a spot.

Beat Bama, and we're in the Top 10. Lose to Oklahoma, drop back down to #12 or #14. But then beat the other four listed, and...yep, back into the Top 10.

Similar with any other combo. Beat Bama and Oklahoma, but lose to Florida, then beat Vandy? Top 10 at the end.

Finally, beat Bama, and Oklahoma, and Florida, and Kentucky, and New Mexico State, but lose in the last game of the regular season to Vandy? This is the most dangerous scenario for us, because ordinarily it would drop us a LOT below where we'd be at that point, probably Top 5. But this year, with Vandy having some street cred, it wouldn't drop us nearly as far as a normal year.

Yah, no matter what, we're in the playoffs with a 10-2 record.

Go Vols!
 
#15
#15
This must be the dream thread.

We should worry and talk first about not being 8-4. This is a strong possibility with the defense we have.
I don't think we'll be forcing 3 or 4 fumbles against Bama, Fla, Okl.
 
#16
#16
orangemadam said:
This must be the dream thread.

We should worry and talk first about not being 8-4. This is a strong possibility with the defense we have.
I don't think we'll be forcing 3 or 4 fumbles against Bama, Fla, Okl.
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Why not?

We’ve been doing it all season. Florida especially is turnover prone.

OU just threw 3 picks to Texas.

You people just say stuff because a school is a big name without doing any research whatsoever.

Tennessee is a big name too.
 
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#20
#20
Vol_in_NC_1999 said:
Agree, but even if we beat Bama, we still have to beat 2 out of the following 3: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Florida.
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2 of them are automatic wins being OU and Vandy. It has been 4 years since a school not named Georgia has won in Neyland. Also OU has an injured QB that has to go on the road to USC and then play Ole Miss before playing us. They are paper tigers.

Vandy being a concern? That's cute.
 
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#21
#21
dduncan4163 said:
No doubt, The only scenario were I see a 2 loss SEC team not getting in is if there's a log jam of 5 or more two loss SEC teams come December and that aint happening. 10 and 2 in the SEC is playoff money
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Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas, LSU will all have more than 2 losses.

I see ole miss, bama, Georgia and (hopefully) Tennessee as the only teams with 2 or fewer losses.
 
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#22
#22
JMSqb11 said:
2 of them are automatic wins being OU and Vandy. It has been 4 years since a school not named Georgia has won in Neyland. Also OU has an injured QB that has to go on the road to USC and then play Ole Miss before playing us. They are paper tigers.

Vandy being a concern? That's cute.
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I was just about to mention the fact that Georgia is the only team to win at Neyland since Heupel's 1st season in Knoxville.
 
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#23
#23
Would a win at Bama be the biggest win in Heupel's career thus far? I know many would say the 2022 Bama game is the biggest but this win would CERTAINLY be the biggest win away from home in years.
 
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#24
#24
Oldblood said:
Would a win at Bama be the biggest win in Heupel's career thus far? I know many would say the 2022 Bama game is the biggest but this win would CERTAINLY be the biggest win away from home in years.
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I would say beating Georgia would be his biggest win (had he done it) but a close second would be beating bama on the road. it's the one thing he has not done that needs to be done outside of beating Georgia.

I would also add beating Florida in the swamp but I think that's possible and somewhat probable this year. and I would not put that win above a win at Tuscaloosa.
 
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