90% Chance to make playoffs?

#1
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VolTom1

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#1
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
 
#2
#2
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
Click to expand...

I think SEC gets 5 teams this year mostly due to the B1G being down versus 2024 (thanks primarily to the Penn State collapse). ACC and Big12 don't look as strong this year and I think the automatic qualifier for being in the CCG (which benefited SMU) is gone.

A solid G5 candidate has developed as well (like Boise State last year). USF and Memphis have both lost.
 
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#3
#3

90% Chance to make playoffs?​


This does seem like an arbitrary # that was made up by two guys sitting at a bar, especially when you consider that this number changes with almost every game played in the NCAAF. If our previous opponents all lose the rest of the way out, our SOS will drop considerably and hurt our chances. Not saying or wanting that mind you, but there is little weight to this 90% number with so much football left to be played.

What is good though for Vol fans was seeing us manhandle Kentucky's defense the way we did. Our D continues to allow points and that ain't gonna change. We just gotta score more and, it's conceivable we do! Go Vols!
 
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#5
#5
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
Click to expand...
We are in the playoffs now. Survive and advance. One more loss and the season is over.
 
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#6
#6
If the ACC gets more than 1 then UT won't get in at 10-2. Ole Miss will have to lose either to USCe, UF, or MSU and then have UT jump them. That could happen if they lose to UF and UT wins out, since UT's loss to UGA was in OT. If the ACC only gets 1 than the SEC could get 5 teams.
 
#7
#7
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
Click to expand...
I fully expect the SEC to get 5 teams in CFP this year. Big12/ACC shouldn't get more than 3 teams combined, B1G 3 max if Oregon doesn't falter, ND maybe
 
#8
#8
Looks like we are down to 84% chance to make the playoffs if we win out. Still great shape and we control our own destiny. Let's do it week by week! Need our defense to get healthy and play more like last year.
 
#9
#9
Well I imagine that is a number that factors in the chances of other teams winning out, including Ole Miss, ND, Texas Tech, Ga Tech, etc... I think it is just the accumulation of all of their matchup computer predictions. Would take days to do on your own but a computer program could produce it in seconds.
 
#12
#12
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
Click to expand...
It is saying that the odds are enough losses will happen to teams above us that if we win out, we have a 90% chance. It’s not about one specific scenario occurring. Just like their odds of us actually making it are really low, because the odds of us winning out are low.
 
#13
#13
The percentage includes the probability of others running the table or dropping a game.
I don’t see the SEC getting five.

ACC- GA Tech and Miami (assuming one wins conf championship game)

BIG 10 - Ohio state, Oregon, Indiana

Big 12- BYU or Texas tech (I will say one advances)

Notre Dame- not going to lose

G5 school

That leaves four SEC schools.

UGA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss

Plus need to Michigan to lose to Ohio State. If they upset Buckeyes agn, then they’ll jump into too ten imo.

The Big 12 could get two schools.
 
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#15
#15
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
Click to expand...
IMO ole miss has to lose again for us to have a chance even with us winning out. I just don’t see the committee letting 5 sec teams in. They should imo if any sec team is 10-2
 
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