2012 NASCAR Cup Preview

#1
DownNDirty

DownNDirty

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#1
Just throwing my .02 out here for the upcoming season since we are so close to testing at Daytona.

#1 Jamie McMurray - EGR was way down last year. I see them bouncing back somewhat this year but just don't see them rising as high as they did in 2010. I think Jamie Mac will win one race this year. 2012 points finish - 17th

#2 Brad Keselowski - Breakout year last year. Can he keep up the momentum this year? I think he stands a good chance at having a very solid 2012 season. He has the right attitude and the right backing at Penske. I think having Allmendinger as a teammate will also be beneficial to Special K. 2012 Wins (2) points - 7th

#5 Kasey Kahne - moving over to Hendrick will be big for Kasey in 2012. He'll be at the front more than midpack this year but I think it will take a little getting use to the Hendrick cars for him and Kenny Francis. But, by mid season he'll be very strong. He'll get a big shot in the arm early in the year with a win at the All Star Race in May. 2012 Wins (2) points - 6th

#9 Marcos Ambrose - He'll be competitive some, running midpack quite often once again. As always the Tasmanian Devil will be hell on wheels at the road courses. Marcos will pick up a win again in 2012 but IMO not at a road course. I see him winning a race like Texas or California. 2012 Wins (1) points - 16th

#11 Denny Hamlin - Darian Grubb comes over to give Denny a shot in the arm at Gibbs. The JGR cars faltered down the stretch last year so it will be interesting to see if they can regain their foothold as one of the cars to beat weekly in 2012. Denny will be solid with Darian on the box and I see him making the Chase but not the splash he did in 2010. 2012 Wins (1) - points 9th

#13 Casey Mears - team switches to Fords and he'll still have Bootie Barker on the box. Love the new scheme with more green and blue. With the two Red Bull cars out of the sport as well as the 71 car shutting down this team will be a solid top 30 team in 2012. Casey will show flashes of speed but ultimately just be on the higher end of the low tier teams. 2012 Wins (0) - points 29th

#14 Tony Stewart - Can Smoke back up that amazing run in the Chase again this year? I highly doubt he will make that kind of run again but I do see him doing well and being a factor as the season winds down. He'll be like the Tony of always - start slow and pick up steam through the summer when the tracks get hot and slick. 2012 Wins (4) - points 3rd

#15 Clint Bowyer - MWR picks up a franchise driver and a decent sponsor for Clint. But, with this being a new team - and a MWR team at that - I expect plenty of growing pains. Clint will run towards the front at times but also just be an afterthought many of the races in 2012. 2012 Wins (0) - points 19th

#16 Greg Biffle - The Biff had a rough 2011 season. With Matt Puccia on the box who knows what 2012 holds for him. He just seems to be gradually declining at Roush but does have the solid 3M backing. Don't really know what to expect out of the Biff. 2012 Wins (0) - points 15th

To be continued.......
 
#4
#4
I expect Gordon to essentially repeat last year, see no reason for any significant change. I think his Cup Titles are all behind him.
 
#5
#5
Nerd-Vol said:
Great stuff. What do you think of my boy Jeff's chances this year?
Click to expand...

You a Burton fan???? I expect him to challange for a chase spot. They seemed to have their stuff together towards the end of the year.
 
#8
#8
Will finish off my predictions tomorrow.........still doing a bunch of odds and ends associated with our move.
 
#10
#10
Look forward to see what Allmendinger can do with some wheels under him. Always thought he had potential so I guess I'm about to find out.
 
#12
#12
jhen713 said:
I was being silly... does the mayor have any fans? I don't dislike him, just never made my list of favorite drivers.
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I like him but he isn't my number one driver. He is just a seat warmer till Austin is ready for Cup.
 
#17
#17
It's tomorrow and I'm still waiting for your predictions as you left off at my favorite driver...

And did you have to refer to Brad K as Special K, really???
 
#19
#19
#17 Matt Kenseth - now with partial backing in 2012 from Best Buy, Roush says he'll run Kenseth out of his pocket if need be. I honestly see Kenseth in the twilight of his career at Roush. His contract is up at the end of the year and he could be a big free agent signing for someone. I'm looking at you JGR - to keep Home Depot - put Kenseth in the 20 car in 2013. As for this year he'll be consistent and run up front. 2012 Points - 10th, wins (1).

#18 Kyle Busch - Can the JGR cars bounce back this year? Last year they seemed to be lacking and fell behind the curve a bit. Then all of the engine problems just compacted the 2011 season. Busch is the best pure wheelman in the garage, and if he can keep himself in check in 2012 I see him being a real contender for the Cup. Not running as much Nationwide and Trucks will also allow him to focus on his Cup cars. 2012 Points - 5th, wins (4).

#20 Joey Logano - This piece of sliced bread has molded and gone stale. I just don't see Joey making any headway in Cup in 2012. Maybe Jason Ratcliff on the box will make a difference but I just don't see it. They rushed Joey to Cup too soon and set him back. He'll show speed but ultimately be just another car out there most weekends. 2012 Points 22nd, wins (0).

#21 Trevor Bayne - he'll run fairly well in the races the Wood's compete in this year. He won't win any races but will run in the top 10-15 in most outings this year.

#22 AJ Allmendinger - It's put up or shut up time for the Dinger. I've always been a fan of his driving and thought he got a real raw deal at Red Bull and has done admirable at RPM. I honestly think he'll have to adjust to the new car and crew but will hit his stride this summer and pick up one win and by the end of the year be running strong and a contender in most races. 2012 Points - 14th, wins (1).

#24 Jeff Gordon - he had a great year for the most part last year and I expect him to be strong once again. Gordon will use his talent to make the most of his cars each week. At the end of the year in the Chase he'll fade once again though. 2012 Points - 8th, wins (2).

#27 Paul Menard - I can't get a good read on Menard honestly. I think he has talent and he has turned into a good wheelman. However, he's the 3rd string car at RCR since Childress don't have to worry about losing sponsorship of the 27 car. I think more resources go into the 29 and 31 but Menard makes the best of it. No, the equipment isn't like running Front Row Motorsports stuff but the 3rd string car at Childress still has to put Paul down on the totem pole a bit. 2012 Points - 19th, wins (0).

#29 Kevin Harvick - the leader of the pack at RCR. Happy won't win as much in 2012 but will still be a big factor come Chase time. Easily could be a contender to win the Cup and I think he'll get close but no cigar. And if Harvick is ever going to win a Cup title I think that he has to win one in the next two years or it will never happen for him. 2012 Points - 4th, wins (2).

#31 Jeff Burton - the Governor of the garage will be typical Burton - steady runs and running up front from time to time. He'll garner a win this year but be outside looking in to the Chase. He'll be consistent and have several top five runs in 2012 though. 2012 Points 13th, wins (1).

#39 Ryan Newman - he may no longer be the Rocketman but Newman can still get it done. He'll be consistent and make the most of his cars once again this year. 2012 Points 12th, wins (2).

#42 - Juan Montoya - here's another I can't have a good handle on for 2012. I think Juan is one of the most competitive guys in the garage but for whatever reasons he just can't put it together. His temper and mannerisms get the best of him over the course of a race. He's honestly a throwback driver - he don't move over and let people go and races everyone like it's the last corner he's ever going to race. Not the best strategy in 2012 Cup but have to admire him for at least being a hard racer. 2012 Points 21st, wins (0).

#43 Aric Almirola - takes over the famed RPM 43 car in 2012. Am I the only one that scratched my head at this hire? He couldn't even run up front in 2011 in JR Motorsports Nationwide car for the most part. Maybe he'll shock the world and run great but I'm not holding my breath. Nice guy, not sure about the fit at RPM though. 2012 Points 23rd, wins (0).

#47 Bobby Labonte - I think this will be Bobb-O's last year in Cup full time. He just don't appear to me to be a guy that's having fun anymore. I like Bobby and Brad Daugherty and wish they could run well but I just see them having more struggles than triumphs this coming year. 2012 Points 26th, wins (0).

#48 - Jimmie Johnson - his remarkable run came to an end in 2011. Nobody can question his ability and I think a freshly motivated JJ will come out with all guns blazing in 2012. He'll be a contender early, win a few races during the regular season and then turn it on in the Chase. He'll use his consistency parried with a couple of Chase wins to win his 6th and final points title. 2012 Points 1st, wins (5).

#51 Kurt Busch - the "Smiling Man" will be all smiles for awhile and beat his chest about how much fun he's having. Then, like typical Kurt, he'll have a meltdown or 6. Maybe not as bad as the one's at Penske though. I think Kurt is trying to be a good boy this year to see where he may be able to land in 2013. He'll run this car far better than it should otherwise and be close to a couple of wins but ultimately the car and crew will just be outclassed by the competition. Kurt will blow up some and have several wrecks in 2012 overdriving the car trying to make up the deficit. 2012 Points 24th, wins (0). - I'll put a sidenote here however - running the Finch car in Nationwide I expect him to at LEAST win 2 races in that series in 2012.

#55 Mark Martin - Mark will run part time and make the best of the time he's in the car. He'll show that car can run in the top 10-15 consistently and grin from ear to ear again this year having fun and not letting the grind of the year wear him down. He won't get a win but he'll get at least one top 5.

#56 Martin Truex Jr - the NAPA car better do something this year or NAPA may fly the coop. I expect Truex to run similarly to what he did last year. He'll contend at times and look unbeatable but something will undo him. 2012 Points 17th, wins (1).

#78 Regan Smith - he'll give it another good run in the Furniture Row car again this year but mechanical and engine woes will plague the team. Smith will run consistently in the top 12-15 when he's in the races. He'll get a couple of poles once again and be a hot free agent going into the 2013 season. 2012 Points 25th, wins (0).

#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr - he will finally break through and win again in 2012 but I only see him winning once. He'll pick up one win and run in the top 10 most of the year. I could see him actually get some momentum and win 2-3 times but I'll stick with one for the predictions. He will win in 2012 - at least once. 2012 Points 11th, wins (1).

#99 Carl Edwards - Mr. Ed, Cousin Carl, Opie, whatever you want to call him will once again be right there in the hunt in 2012. He, along with Jimmie and Tony will have a memorable Chase fight in 2012. Again, Carl will come up just short. 2012 Points 2nd, wins (4).
 
#20
#20
I'm with you on Almirola, Just doesn't compute. There are at least half a dozen guys I would go for first. Reutiman, Vickers, Ragan, Cassil, plus several from either Nationwide or Trucks.

I also see Kenseth leaving Roush, JGR is most likely landing spot.

Good analysis, shows much thought invested, while I am not in complete agreement, your logic is good.
 
#21
#21
rbroyles said:
I'm with you on Almirola, Just doesn't compute. There are at least half a dozen guys I would go for first. Reutiman, Vickers, Ragan, Cassil, plus several from either Nationwide or Trucks.

I also see Kenseth leaving Roush, JGR is most likely landing spot.

Good analysis, shows much thought invested, while I am not in complete agreement, your logic is good.
Click to expand...

I see Kurt going to the #20 before Kenseth. I actually think Kurt will win a race or two next year. The equipment Finch runs is Hendrick stuff and I just believe they have been lacking the talent behind the wheel. Their best drivers have been a past his prime Bill Elliott and Bobby Labonte. The only thing is the crew chief and pit crew.
 
#23
#23
I hope your crystal ball is foggy. I'd like to see Carl win it this year.
 
#24
#24
Why do you think it will be Jimmie's last championship but predict he'll win it this coming year?
 
#25
#25
He's still at the peak but it is very competitive in Cup. I think over the coming years Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kasey Kahne will all be hoisting the Championship title as they all get their first Cup titles. I think Jimmie still has all the tools at his disposal this year to make it happen again and then Knaus will ride off into the sunset to go elsewhere. When Gordon lost Evernham how many titles did he win? I'm thinking only one with Loomis when he first took over if I'm remembering correctly.

I just think JJ will get it done one more time and then things will change at HMS with him losing Chad and he'll go into more of the Gordon role - winning some races and being very competitive but making room for the next group of title winners (Ky Busch, Edwards, and Kahne).
 
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