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1. QB Braxton Miller, Ohio State, Junior
Surprisingly, I am not going with the defending Heisman winner as the preseason favorite. The main reason is that Braxton Miller is going to have a much better chance to be in the BCS National championship game than Johnny Manziel. In year one of Urban Meyers system, Miller had 28 total TDs and a total of 3,300 yards, and he will be even better. Miller is not a great passer, and less than 2,000 yards will not get him the Heisman unless he runs for 2,000 (and that is not happening). He also needs to improve his efficiency (less than 60% completed passes last year). However, Miller is only a true junior and has gotten better. Expect something like 4,000 total yards and 40 total TDs for Miller this year, while winning the Big Ten and going undefeated, which should should give him the Heisman.
2. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, RS Sophomore
Lets forget all the preseason distractions for Manziel. He was a monster last season, winning 11 games while having a total of 47 TDs and 5,000 yards of offense, including almost 1,500 yards rushing. However, its going to be extremely difficult for him to repeat those numbers (like when Tim Tebow had 55 total TDs in 2007). He might even be a better player with a better team, but hes not going to repeat those numbers. He also is now a marked man, with every team wanting a shot at him. He's going to get hit hard this year. He must win ten games again, while putting close to 45-50 total TD's.
3. RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama, Sophomore
Quite simply, T.J. Yeldon might have been the best freshman in the country if not for Manziel last year. He had 1,100 yards and 12 TDs AS A BACKUP, and averaged 6.3 YPC last year. Hes on the preseason #1 team in the country, and he will easily get 250 carries this year. Its possible that Yeldon can surpass Mark Ingrams 2009 season, where he had 1,700 yards and 16 TDs. Yeldon also had ability to catch passes from the running spot. Could he get 2,000 total yards? I wouldnt be shocked. However, hes going to be sharing the spotlight with A.J. McCarron, and Alabama has said they plan to throw more, which limits Yeldons carries. Also, if a QB has a very good year on an undefeated BCS team, Yeldon will have to do something truly spectacular to get the trophy.
4. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia, RS Senior
Murray might not have the winning statistics of A.J. McCarron, the numbers of Tahj Boyd, or the excitement of Johnny Manziel. But Aaron Murray can make the case as the best quarterback in the country. He was magnificent last year, with a 36-10 TD/INT ratio and about 150 yards short of 4,000 yards, while completing 64.5% of his passes. He has a top five team, and ten starters returning from last years team on offense. If he wins the SEC championship while throwing 4,000 yards, Murray will have a great case for the Heisman. However, Georgia is a run first team with two big time running backs coming back. Murray is going to have a tough time matching those stats. He needs 4,000 total yards and 40 TD's, while still maintaining that great efficiency with an SEC title appearance.
5. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina, Junior
By no means am I trying to take away from Clowney, who I still think is the best player in the country and will be the pick number one in the 2014 NFL draft. But a big part of his high sack total was one game against Clemson. Take away his 4.5 sacks, and he only had nine. Is that still a very good season? Without a doubt but hes going to have to even outdo last years numbers while getting more focused from other teams and without NFL pick Devin Taylor to help him on the other side. In order to win the Heisman, he has to hope nobody has Manziel-like numbers at the QB spot, hope no RB gets 2,000 yards, while also having 15 sacks and close to 30 TFL, while forcing five fumbles, and win the SEC. Basically, one of the greatest defensive seasons ever. Good luck. However, if there is one man to do it, Clowney is your guy.
6. QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson, RS Senior
Boyd will most definitely have the numbers, considering he has 7,724 passing yards and 84 total touchdowns in the last two years. He is a prolific passer with running ability (500 yards last year) and improved his completion percentage by 8% last year. Clemson will most likely have to go undefeated in the ACC, which doesnt get much respect nationally, and have close to 50 TDs in order to get his shot to win. He also needs to cut down his turnovers. Efficiency has been important in the Heisman race with quarterbacks, and Body threw 13 INTs last year. Boyd also doesnt have that eye popping resume win for his career yet. Beating Georgia week one would do that.
7. RB DeAnthony Thomas, Oregon, Junior
The original Black Mamba is arguably the most electrifying player in the country. He does it all, and its kind of silly to put him as just simply a running back. In 2012, DAT had 700 yards rushing, 450 yards receiving, 17.1 yards per punt return, two touchdown returns, eleven rushing touchdowns, and five receiving. De'Anthony Thomas is the most versatile offensive player in the country. He is expected to have more rushing duties (only 92 carries last year) but there are questions about him being able to handle 175-200 carries. His receiving numbers will most likely go down and his return chances will also go down. With head coach Chip Kelly now gone, the offense might not flow as well either. Thomas will have to get 1,000 yards rushing, 20 total TDs, a couple return touchdowns, plus 500 yards receiving (with Oregon winning the Pac-12) to have a shot at the Heisman.
8. QB A.J. McCarron, Alabama, RS Senior
Say what you want about McCarron, but there is no doubt the man is the most efficient QB in the country. A career 49-8 TD/INT ratio while completing 67% of his passes for his career is quite impressive. He has a lot of ability and good playmakers around him, and plays for the #1 team in the country. He also has the resume, with two national championships under his belt. The problem is that Alabama is a run first team. McCarron hasnt reached the 3,000 yard plateau yet, which he will need to do. He also doesnt run, which puts him behind other QBs in that he can't add more total yardage. Alabama plans to throw more, but I'll have to see it to believe it with Nick Saban. Yet, if McCarron puts up something like 3,500 passing yards, 70% completion, and a 30-5 TD/INT ratio, and winning the SEC, hell have a shot.
9. QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon, RS Sophomore
People do not realize how good Mariota was last year. He had a 32-6 TD/INT ratio, completed 68.5% of his passes, and averaged seven yards per carry while racking up 700 yards rushing for 3,500 yards total. He is the best quarterback Oregon has had since Joey Harrington was there slinging the pigskin around. Mariota has to share the spotlight with DeAnthony Thomas, plus Oregon is a run first team. There is also a stigma that Oregon QBs have an easy job passing, with so many short passes thrown and wide outs get the ball in space and create the extra yards. The same question also must be asked, can Oregon continue the great offense without Chip Kelly? Mariota will need 4,500 total yards, 40 total TDs, and continue that great efficiency to get a shot at the Heisman, along with winning the Pac-12.
10. QB Teddy Bridgewater
It's incredible that a guy considered an "athlete" and not exactly a true QB can complete 68.5% of his passes and have a TD/INT ratio of 27-8 in just his true sophomore season. Bridgewater has exceeded expectations, and is getting better. He threw for 3,700 yards and is going to be a first round pick. He doesn't run like you think he would, being a strictly pass first QB, so that will hurt his total yardage. He also plays in the Big East in Kentucky. However, if he throws 4,000 yards/40 TD's/5 INT's and complete 70% of his passes, while going undefeated, he will get a New York invite.
Surprisingly, I am not going with the defending Heisman winner as the preseason favorite. The main reason is that Braxton Miller is going to have a much better chance to be in the BCS National championship game than Johnny Manziel. In year one of Urban Meyers system, Miller had 28 total TDs and a total of 3,300 yards, and he will be even better. Miller is not a great passer, and less than 2,000 yards will not get him the Heisman unless he runs for 2,000 (and that is not happening). He also needs to improve his efficiency (less than 60% completed passes last year). However, Miller is only a true junior and has gotten better. Expect something like 4,000 total yards and 40 total TDs for Miller this year, while winning the Big Ten and going undefeated, which should should give him the Heisman.
2. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, RS Sophomore
Lets forget all the preseason distractions for Manziel. He was a monster last season, winning 11 games while having a total of 47 TDs and 5,000 yards of offense, including almost 1,500 yards rushing. However, its going to be extremely difficult for him to repeat those numbers (like when Tim Tebow had 55 total TDs in 2007). He might even be a better player with a better team, but hes not going to repeat those numbers. He also is now a marked man, with every team wanting a shot at him. He's going to get hit hard this year. He must win ten games again, while putting close to 45-50 total TD's.
3. RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama, Sophomore
Quite simply, T.J. Yeldon might have been the best freshman in the country if not for Manziel last year. He had 1,100 yards and 12 TDs AS A BACKUP, and averaged 6.3 YPC last year. Hes on the preseason #1 team in the country, and he will easily get 250 carries this year. Its possible that Yeldon can surpass Mark Ingrams 2009 season, where he had 1,700 yards and 16 TDs. Yeldon also had ability to catch passes from the running spot. Could he get 2,000 total yards? I wouldnt be shocked. However, hes going to be sharing the spotlight with A.J. McCarron, and Alabama has said they plan to throw more, which limits Yeldons carries. Also, if a QB has a very good year on an undefeated BCS team, Yeldon will have to do something truly spectacular to get the trophy.
4. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia, RS Senior
Murray might not have the winning statistics of A.J. McCarron, the numbers of Tahj Boyd, or the excitement of Johnny Manziel. But Aaron Murray can make the case as the best quarterback in the country. He was magnificent last year, with a 36-10 TD/INT ratio and about 150 yards short of 4,000 yards, while completing 64.5% of his passes. He has a top five team, and ten starters returning from last years team on offense. If he wins the SEC championship while throwing 4,000 yards, Murray will have a great case for the Heisman. However, Georgia is a run first team with two big time running backs coming back. Murray is going to have a tough time matching those stats. He needs 4,000 total yards and 40 TD's, while still maintaining that great efficiency with an SEC title appearance.
5. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina, Junior
By no means am I trying to take away from Clowney, who I still think is the best player in the country and will be the pick number one in the 2014 NFL draft. But a big part of his high sack total was one game against Clemson. Take away his 4.5 sacks, and he only had nine. Is that still a very good season? Without a doubt but hes going to have to even outdo last years numbers while getting more focused from other teams and without NFL pick Devin Taylor to help him on the other side. In order to win the Heisman, he has to hope nobody has Manziel-like numbers at the QB spot, hope no RB gets 2,000 yards, while also having 15 sacks and close to 30 TFL, while forcing five fumbles, and win the SEC. Basically, one of the greatest defensive seasons ever. Good luck. However, if there is one man to do it, Clowney is your guy.
6. QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson, RS Senior
Boyd will most definitely have the numbers, considering he has 7,724 passing yards and 84 total touchdowns in the last two years. He is a prolific passer with running ability (500 yards last year) and improved his completion percentage by 8% last year. Clemson will most likely have to go undefeated in the ACC, which doesnt get much respect nationally, and have close to 50 TDs in order to get his shot to win. He also needs to cut down his turnovers. Efficiency has been important in the Heisman race with quarterbacks, and Body threw 13 INTs last year. Boyd also doesnt have that eye popping resume win for his career yet. Beating Georgia week one would do that.
7. RB DeAnthony Thomas, Oregon, Junior
The original Black Mamba is arguably the most electrifying player in the country. He does it all, and its kind of silly to put him as just simply a running back. In 2012, DAT had 700 yards rushing, 450 yards receiving, 17.1 yards per punt return, two touchdown returns, eleven rushing touchdowns, and five receiving. De'Anthony Thomas is the most versatile offensive player in the country. He is expected to have more rushing duties (only 92 carries last year) but there are questions about him being able to handle 175-200 carries. His receiving numbers will most likely go down and his return chances will also go down. With head coach Chip Kelly now gone, the offense might not flow as well either. Thomas will have to get 1,000 yards rushing, 20 total TDs, a couple return touchdowns, plus 500 yards receiving (with Oregon winning the Pac-12) to have a shot at the Heisman.
8. QB A.J. McCarron, Alabama, RS Senior
Say what you want about McCarron, but there is no doubt the man is the most efficient QB in the country. A career 49-8 TD/INT ratio while completing 67% of his passes for his career is quite impressive. He has a lot of ability and good playmakers around him, and plays for the #1 team in the country. He also has the resume, with two national championships under his belt. The problem is that Alabama is a run first team. McCarron hasnt reached the 3,000 yard plateau yet, which he will need to do. He also doesnt run, which puts him behind other QBs in that he can't add more total yardage. Alabama plans to throw more, but I'll have to see it to believe it with Nick Saban. Yet, if McCarron puts up something like 3,500 passing yards, 70% completion, and a 30-5 TD/INT ratio, and winning the SEC, hell have a shot.
9. QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon, RS Sophomore
People do not realize how good Mariota was last year. He had a 32-6 TD/INT ratio, completed 68.5% of his passes, and averaged seven yards per carry while racking up 700 yards rushing for 3,500 yards total. He is the best quarterback Oregon has had since Joey Harrington was there slinging the pigskin around. Mariota has to share the spotlight with DeAnthony Thomas, plus Oregon is a run first team. There is also a stigma that Oregon QBs have an easy job passing, with so many short passes thrown and wide outs get the ball in space and create the extra yards. The same question also must be asked, can Oregon continue the great offense without Chip Kelly? Mariota will need 4,500 total yards, 40 total TDs, and continue that great efficiency to get a shot at the Heisman, along with winning the Pac-12.
10. QB Teddy Bridgewater
It's incredible that a guy considered an "athlete" and not exactly a true QB can complete 68.5% of his passes and have a TD/INT ratio of 27-8 in just his true sophomore season. Bridgewater has exceeded expectations, and is getting better. He threw for 3,700 yards and is going to be a first round pick. He doesn't run like you think he would, being a strictly pass first QB, so that will hurt his total yardage. He also plays in the Big East in Kentucky. However, if he throws 4,000 yards/40 TD's/5 INT's and complete 70% of his passes, while going undefeated, he will get a New York invite.
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hmy:
