2025 Seed Watch Party Thread

#77
#77
VolGee4 said:
Duke beat Auburn, which isn’t even considered in KenPom. Your wins and losses aren’t considered. It’s all about efficiency, adjusted for opponent.
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Right. I wonder if that opponent adjustment is enough this year. The SEC is an astounding 30-4 against the ACC. The leagues just aren’t remotely comparable.
 
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#79
#79
hUTch2002 said:
Right. I wonder if that opponent adjustment is enough this year. The SEC is an astounding 30-4 against the ACC. The leagues just aren’t remotely comparable.
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I do wonder if they’ve been tested enough lately, but they have beaten Auburn, Arizona, Louisville, and Illinois. 2 teams we beat, and another we lost by 2.
 
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#80
#80
No doubt Duke is very good but they definitely haven’t been tested much. They’ve played 3 games against current top 20 NET teams. They beat Auburn at home, beat AZ on the road and lost UK at a neutral site. Auburn is clearly the best team. After that I think it’s a jumbled mess for second best between Duke, Florida, Alabama, Houston and Tennessee.
 
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#81
#81
Dropping 4 seeds from the seed list as we now sit at 95.8% to be a 3 seed or better per TeamRankings, 83.2% to be a 2 seed or better. TeamRankings puts our chances of a 1 seed at 29.2%, Barttorvik has it at 44.3%. Updated seed list below…

Auburn
Duke
Florida
Alabama
——————————
Houston
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
——————————
Iowa State
Kentucky
Purdue
Michigan State
 
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#82
#82
Today’s games:
8:00pm: Michigan vs. Nebraska
9:00pm: Houston vs. Texas Tech


Michigan is on the 4 line so technically doesn’t qualify but not any other action tonight and doesn’t hurt to root against them just to continue to cement our floor seeding. Obviously the late game is a massive one, a TTU win further opens the door for us to potentially snag our first ever 1 seed.
 
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#83
#83
bleedingTNorange said:
Today’s games:
8:00pm: Michigan vs. Nebraska
9:00pm: Houston vs. Texas Tech


Michigan is on the 4 line so technically doesn’t qualify but not any other action tonight and doesn’t hurt to root against them just to continue to cement our floor seeding. Obviously the late game is a massive one, a TTU win further opens the door for us to potentially snag our first ever 1 seed.
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Neither went our way, hoping for better luck tonight.


Todays games:
7:00pm: Duke vs. Miami
7:00pm: Florida vs. Georgia
8:00pm: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
9:00pm: Mississippi State vs. Alabama
9:00pm: Washington vs. Wisconsin
 
#85
#85
bleedingTNorange said:
Neither went our way, hoping for better luck tonight.


Todays games:
7:00pm: Duke vs. Miami
7:00pm: Florida vs. Georgia
8:00pm: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
9:00pm: Mississippi State vs. Alabama
9:00pm: Washington vs. Wisconsin
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If we win and Florida losses, think that puts us ahead of Florida at this point and time? Hoping Miss state can somehow upset Bama as well.
 
#87
#87
Willy14 said:
If we win and Florida losses, think that puts us ahead of Florida at this point and time? Hoping Miss state can somehow upset Bama as well.
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I think that should be the case. Florida losing a game outside of Bama would be big. They both play each other and we still get Bama. Really need Georgia to keep on keeping on
 
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#92
#92
Unfortunately we probably lost a Q1 win with Miss state losing again last night. Doesn’t look up it’s updated but could easily see them dropping 3 spots. Baylor lost who is right behind them, but VCU won. BYU and Oregon didn’t play last night.
 
#94
#94
Willy14 said:
Unfortunately we probably lost a Q1 win with Miss state losing again last night. Doesn’t look up it’s updated but could easily see them dropping 3 spots. Baylor lost who is right behind them, but VCU won. BYU and Oregon didn’t play last night.
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They finish up with 3 very winnable games, so maybe they stay right at that mark.
 
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#95
#95
omghulkhands said:
Right now TR has our odds of 1 seed at 28%

And projecting 2-1 in our final 3 regular season games.

Bracketology 2025: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament

NCAA bracketology for 2025 from the number crunchers at TeamRankings.com. Our algorithmic models project all 364 NCAA teams and update daily.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com
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For the final two #1 seeds Barttorvik has it…
Houston 54.5%
Alabama 48.2%
Tennessee 43.4%
Florida 40.3%
Michigan State 20.3%
 
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#96
#96
bleedingTNorange said:
For the final two #1 seeds Barttorvik has it…
Houston 54.5%
Alabama 48.2%
Tennessee 43.4%
Florida 40.3%
Michigan State 20.3%
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Seems binary at this point. If we win Saturday, we’re a one. Usually, I’d say that there are currently too many unknowns, but Florida’s loss last night combined with a 1-0 record against Bama would seem to be the clear separation that the committee could get behind. Obviously there are more games for us, Fl, Houston and Bama after Saturday. Any loss could undo this, but it’ll be hard for Bama or us to overcome a loss Saturday to get a one.
 
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#97
#97
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Seems binary at this point. If we win Saturday, we’re a one. Usually, I’d say that there are currently too many unknowns, but Florida’s loss last night combined with a 1-0 record against Bama would seem to be the clear separation that the committee could get behind. Obviously there are more games for us, Fl, Houston and Bama after Saturday. Any loss could undo this, but it’ll be hard for Bama or us to overcome a loss Saturday to get a one.
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agree, winner Saturday has their odds greatly increase and the losers decrease.
 
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#98
#98
Stoerner Fumbles said:
Seems binary at this point. If we win Saturday, we’re a one. Usually, I’d say that there are currently too many unknowns, but Florida’s loss last night combined with a 1-0 record against Bama would seem to be the clear separation that the committee could get behind. Obviously there are more games for us, Fl, Houston and Bama after Saturday. Any loss could undo this, but it’ll be hard for Bama or us to overcome a loss Saturday to get a one.
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Especially since they will have lost three of five since the Selection Committee reveal 11 days ago. No way they’re still sitting at #2 on the S-Curve. Saturday feels like an elimination game to me.
 
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