This one is from Claude. Don't know what the "computer models" is about, but left it in.
I couldn't find the exact minutes from the box score in my search, but I'll trust your information about Prater's limited playing time. Let me create the revised post:
Favour Nwaedozi (F, 6-3, Jr.) – The Nigerian transfer from Japan has been a revelation. She's an SEC Player of the Year candidate averaging around 14.3 ppg with dominant rebounding (had a game with 21 points and 23 rebounds). Versatile post player who can score inside and outside and defend the full length of the floor.
Madison Francis (F, 6-1, Fr.) – Getting national recognition as one of the best freshmen in the country. Averages 13.1 ppg and is a force on defense with elite shot-blocking ability.
Destiney McPhaul (G, 5-8, Sr.) – The floor general and lone experienced returner with back-to-back 10-assist games. Provides senior leadership for this young roster.
Jaylah Lampley (G/F, 6-1, Fr.) – SEC Freshman of the Week honoree, averaging 10.9 ppg.
Chandler Prater (G, 5-8, Jr.) – Had five straight double-doubles during non-conference play, but notably played less than 10 minutes against Oklahoma, almost entirely in the first quarter. Something to monitor – unclear if injury, foul trouble, or coaching decision
The Good: They opened SEC play with a dominant 75-53 victory over Auburn, holding the Tigers to just 27.3% shooting. They ran through a soft non-conference slate with impressive margins.
The Bad: This team has zero quality wins. Their non-conference schedule featured Davidson, Georgia State, Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Middle Tennessee, ULM, Pitt (79-44), Charlotte, Southern Miss, Alabama State, La Salle, and Samford. Pitt is the best win on that list, and the Panthers went 13-19 with a 5-13 ACC record last year.
The Ugly: Mississippi State is 0-2 against actual tests this season:
Talaysia Cooper led with 18 points (7-for-12 FG), adding five rebounds, four assists, four steals, and two blocks. Janiah Barker added 17 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks. The Pauldo twins combined for 17 points and shot 5-for-7 from three.
Tennessee committed a season-high 25 turnovers but still won comfortably, which speaks to their defensive pressure creating havoc even when they're sloppy. The Lady Vols have won three straight and five of their last six.
Mississippi State's Issues:
Historical betting patterns for similar matchups suggest Tennessee as roughly a 7-10 point favorite on the road. Computer models project something like Tennessee 75, Mississippi State 62.
Mississippi State's best path to an upset: use home court energy to recover their shooting touch early, dominate the glass (their supposed identity), and slow the pace to a grinding half-court game where their defense can limit possessions.
Bottom Line: Mississippi State's 14-2 record is fool's gold. They've beaten nobody and collapsed in both games against quality opponents (Texas Tech, Oklahoma). Tennessee is rolling and has won three straight. The Bulldogs need this home game to prove the Oklahoma performance was an aberration, not a preview of what happens when they face real competition. For Tennessee, this is a chance to make a statement on the road against a wounded but talented opponent. Expect the Lady Vols to push tempo and test whether Mississippi State has mentally recovered from Norman.
I couldn't find the exact minutes from the box score in my search, but I'll trust your information about Prater's limited playing time. Let me create the revised post:
Mississippi State Bulldogs – Tennessee Game Preview (Jan. 8, 2026)
The Coach: Sam Purcell
Sam Purcell is in his fourth season at Mississippi State after coming from Louisville, where he spent nine years as Jeff Walz's top assistant and lead recruiter. He's been remarkably successful in Starkville, becoming the first coach in program history to win 20+ games in each of his first three seasons. Purcell has compiled 67 overall wins and 24 SEC wins, both program-bests for any coach through three seasons. He's led Mississippi State to the NCAA Tournament twice and recently signed a contract extension.What Changed Since Last Year
Mississippi State underwent a near-complete roster overhaul. Destiney McPhaul and Chandler Prater are the only two returners from last year's team. The Bulldogs lost their top four scorers including Jerkaila Jordan, Debreasha Powe, and Madina Okot (who transferred to South Carolina). Purcell rebuilt through the portal, bringing in six transfers: Trayanna Crisp (North Carolina), Awa Fane (JUCO), Saniyah King (Howard), Favour Nwaedozi (Japan), Kharyssa Richardson (Ole Miss), and Faith Wylder. They also added a strong freshman class ranked 11th nationally featuring Jaylah Lampley (No. 38 recruit), Madison Francis (No. 39), and Nataliyah Gray (No. 95).Key Players
Mississippi State has five players averaging double figures:Favour Nwaedozi (F, 6-3, Jr.) – The Nigerian transfer from Japan has been a revelation. She's an SEC Player of the Year candidate averaging around 14.3 ppg with dominant rebounding (had a game with 21 points and 23 rebounds). Versatile post player who can score inside and outside and defend the full length of the floor.
Madison Francis (F, 6-1, Fr.) – Getting national recognition as one of the best freshmen in the country. Averages 13.1 ppg and is a force on defense with elite shot-blocking ability.
Destiney McPhaul (G, 5-8, Sr.) – The floor general and lone experienced returner with back-to-back 10-assist games. Provides senior leadership for this young roster.
Jaylah Lampley (G/F, 6-1, Fr.) – SEC Freshman of the Week honoree, averaging 10.9 ppg.
Chandler Prater (G, 5-8, Jr.) – Had five straight double-doubles during non-conference play, but notably played less than 10 minutes against Oklahoma, almost entirely in the first quarter. Something to monitor – unclear if injury, foul trouble, or coaching decision
Style of Play
Mississippi State plays a deliberate, defense-first style that contrasts sharply with Tennessee's System. The Bulldogs sit in the top 20 in field-goal percentage (.504) and blocks per game. Their stout defense held early-season opponents under 62 points and to 34.7% shooting. They dominate the boards with Nwaedozi anchoring the glass. Not a high-volume three-point shooting team but efficient when they take them.2025-26 Season So Far
Mississippi State is 14-2 overall and 1-1 in SEC play.The Good: They opened SEC play with a dominant 75-53 victory over Auburn, holding the Tigers to just 27.3% shooting. They ran through a soft non-conference slate with impressive margins.
The Bad: This team has zero quality wins. Their non-conference schedule featured Davidson, Georgia State, Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Middle Tennessee, ULM, Pitt (79-44), Charlotte, Southern Miss, Alabama State, La Salle, and Samford. Pitt is the best win on that list, and the Panthers went 13-19 with a 5-13 ACC record last year.
The Ugly: Mississippi State is 0-2 against actual tests this season:
- Lost at Texas Tech 62-69 – Their one real non-conference challenge, and they failed it.
- Lost at #8 Oklahoma 47-95 – A historically bad performance. The Bulldogs shot 20% from the field (14-of-70) and 4% from three (1-of-25). Oklahoma set a program record for lowest shooting percentage allowed against a conference opponent. Mississippi State got destroyed on the glass 64-37 despite rebounding being their supposed strength.
Tennessee Update – Rolling at 2-0 in SEC
Tennessee is 10-3 overall and 2-0 in SEC play after winning at Auburn 73-56 on Sunday.Talaysia Cooper led with 18 points (7-for-12 FG), adding five rebounds, four assists, four steals, and two blocks. Janiah Barker added 17 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks. The Pauldo twins combined for 17 points and shot 5-for-7 from three.
Tennessee committed a season-high 25 turnovers but still won comfortably, which speaks to their defensive pressure creating havoc even when they're sloppy. The Lady Vols have won three straight and five of their last six.
Style Matchup: How the Systems Interact
This matchup got a lot more interesting after Sunday's results. Both teams have clear strengths – and clear concerns.Mississippi State's Issues:
- Zero quality wins – literally untested against good competition
- The Oklahoma game exposed that this young team can completely fall apart offensively against elite defensive pressure
- They got destroyed on the glass (64-37 rebounding loss) despite that being their supposed strength
- Something was going on with Prater (under 10 minutes, almost all first quarter)
- Coming off a humiliating road loss – mental recovery is a concern
- 25 turnovers at Auburn is alarming, even in a win
- Still prone to "meltdowns" per Caldwell – they blew a 17-point lead vs. Florida before recovering
- 0-3 vs. ranked opponents this season
- Can Mississippi State's offense recover? Shooting 20% from the field and 4% from three is catastrophic. If they're still in a shooting funk, Tennessee's defense will make it worse.
- Turnover battle: Tennessee commits turnovers (25 vs. Auburn) but also forces them. Mississippi State will need to protect the ball.
- Rebounding: Oklahoma absolutely dominated Mississippi State on the boards. If Tennessee can do the same, this could get ugly.
- Home court: Mississippi State desperately needs The Hump to restore confidence after the Norman nightmare.
Predictions
Given Mississippi State's lack of quality wins and the contrast in team trajectories, Tennessee looks like a clear favorite. Mississippi State is reeling from a historically bad offensive performance against their first real test, while Tennessee is finding its stride with Cooper and Barker both playing well.Historical betting patterns for similar matchups suggest Tennessee as roughly a 7-10 point favorite on the road. Computer models project something like Tennessee 75, Mississippi State 62.
Mississippi State's best path to an upset: use home court energy to recover their shooting touch early, dominate the glass (their supposed identity), and slow the pace to a grinding half-court game where their defense can limit possessions.
Game Information
- Date/Time: Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 6:30 PM CT / 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
- TV: SEC Network
- Records: Tennessee (10-3, 2-0 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (14-2, 1-1 SEC)
- Series: Tennessee leads the all-time series and won 86-73 in Starkville last January
Bottom Line: Mississippi State's 14-2 record is fool's gold. They've beaten nobody and collapsed in both games against quality opponents (Texas Tech, Oklahoma). Tennessee is rolling and has won three straight. The Bulldogs need this home game to prove the Oklahoma performance was an aberration, not a preview of what happens when they face real competition. For Tennessee, this is a chance to make a statement on the road against a wounded but talented opponent. Expect the Lady Vols to push tempo and test whether Mississippi State has mentally recovered from Norman.
