Way Too Early 2026-27 LV Basketball Prognostications.

[RetroVol]

Some prognosticators have already weighed in on other threads, but thought it might be fun to pull together some wild and crazies here. So if you've made a prediction and want to put it where it can easily be found later , here's your chance! I'll start it off. I gave [Codex, 5.5, Extra-High] the roster and this prompt:

Here is the roster for next year's Lady Vols basketball team. Assuming that these young women improve their shooting percentages -2 point, 3-point, and FTs - in line with what previous players who transferred into a Kim Caldwell coached team, project their shooting percentages for next season.

(And, for those interested, this took up 1% of my weekly allowance under OpenAI's $20/month plan.)

Everything from here on is Codex:

Very rough shooting projection using prior Caldwell-system results

I tried to keep this conservative. The basic idea was to look at players who were new to Kim Caldwell's system, including the 2023-24 Marshall team as first-year Caldwell players, and compare them to their prior season. For Marshall returners, that meant using their 2022-23 Marshall numbers as the baseline.

At a high level, the refined conservative read was:

+4 to +6 points on 2P%
+2 to +3 points on 3P%
small bump at the FT line

For this projection, I used the low end:

+4.0 on 2P%
+2.0 on 3P%
+1.0 on FT%

This is not a prediction. It is just: "What would the roster look like if the low-end Caldwell-system improvement pattern held?"

Player	Projected 2P%	Projected 3P%	Projected FT%
Gabby Minus	N/A	N/A	N/A
Avery Mills	47.1	44.7	86.1
Naomi White	45.3	39.2	80.1
Harper Peterson	29.0*	39.5*	N/A
Zhen Craft	50.9	N/A	63.0
Rylie Theuerkauf	49.7	42.6	87.2
Irene Oboavwoduo	57.8*	27.0*	77.2*
Harissoum Coulibaly	48.9	52.0*	56.0
Fatmata Janneh	52.8	35.0	84.8
Kaylene Smikle	52.7	36.7	83.4
Shaelyn Steele	38.1	11.5	76.0
Jada Eads	44.2	31.4	79.0
Aaliyah Moore	53.5	N/A	72.4
Kennedy Fauntleroy	48.0	32.8	73.5
Riley Makalusky	47.5	45.2	81.8

* = very small or non-college sample, so treat with extra caution.

Bottom line: even using the conservative low-end version of the Caldwell bump, this does not look like a roster that should be projected to shoot worse because of the system. The safer read is that the system has generally raised 2P efficiency, given a modest lift to 3P percentage, and produced mixed-but-slightly-positive FT results.

 

[gymmlover]

That compares with 2025-26 figures for 3 point shots per player.

Player	3P%	3PM / 3PA
Lauren Hurst	41.4%	12 / 29
Janiah Barker	36.5%	38 / 104
Nya Robertson	34.6%	56 / 162
Talaysia Cooper	33.7%	57 / 169
Mia Pauldo	29.9%	46 / 154
Jaida Civil	29.3%	17 / 58
Kaniya Boyd	28.6%	6 / 21
Mya Pauldo	26.5%	9 / 34
Zee Spearman	24.2%	24 / 99
Alyssa Latham	21.1%	4 / 19
Deniya Prawl	12.5%	4 / 32

 

[knoxvol52]

 

[RetroVol]

I'll wear that with pride!

 

[Volle]

The real Q is, will we be better than last year?

 

[RetroVol]

The real Q is, will we be better than last year?

That's a question for this thread. @DarkPhoenix has said he thinks next year's team is more talented, citing review of video as his source. Others have given opinions, but they are scattered out through lots of posts in threads primarily on other topics. Thought it might be helpful to start gathering them in one place.

 

[greenwolfe@gmail.com Ran]

One of the reasons I have no doubt that the Lady Vols this year will be successful was watching the play of NAOMI WHITE in her highlight films. When I tried to compare her to the Pauldo twins, it was incredible. I could not imagine either twin doing what WHITE did in her videos.

 

[volsagain]

View attachment 829373

Hey now these are our nerds ! LEAVE THEM ALONE PLEASE

 

[Golfteacher]

It is far too early to determine the success, or failure, of the new group of Lady Vols. On paper, they have a lot of potentials. I figure that few if any of these players have ever played in the CKC’s system, so they must learn from scratch, so it matters how well they jell. Chemistry will also be a big issue.

 

[Golfteacher]

It is far too early to determine the success, or failure, of the new group of Lady Vols. On paper, they have a lot of potentials. I figure that few if any of these players have ever played in the CKC’s system, so they must learn from scratch, so it matters how well they jell. Chemistry will also be a big issue.

 

[greenwolfe@gmail.com Ran]

I was just thinking. Suppose that CALDWELL'S LADY VOLS not only breezed through their early season schedule, but went through the SEC schedule just as effectively collecting a record of more than 30 games averaging almost 95 points a game. And then they coasted through the NCAA tournament winning it all to become the NATIONAL CHAMPION. I wonder what everyone would say then about KIM CALDWELL?

 

[ScreamingEagleVol]

I was just thinking. Suppose that CALDWELL'S LADY VOLS not only breezed through their early season schedule, but went through the SEC schedule just as effectively collecting a record of more than 30 games averaging almost 95 points a game. And then they coasted through the NCAA tournament winning it all to become the NATIONAL CHAMPION. I wonder what everyone would say then about KIM CALDWELL?

That would be an awesome accomplishment. 30+ wins and 95 ppg average though…. Lots of things would have to come together imo such as health of team throughout the season, health of opposing teams, chemistry, great scouting, film study, great in-game adjustments, keeping fresh legs entering post season, etc etc. Some might say this is a negative response but it is realistic. I know some will say look at teams that have done it, I just don’t know how the LVs will or can navigate a conference that demands the best play each and every game and week unlike some of the conferences. Only time will tell.

 

[LVfanLasVegas]

Creme sees the LVs as a 9 seed.

 

[glv98]

Creme sees the LVs as a 9 seed.

Creme may have gotten a little lazy here He actually predicted the exact same finish next year as last year. 16-14 overall, 8-8 in the conference and a 9 seed. Wouldn't that be some sh#t if next year ended up with an identical result to this year? I actually think 8 and 8 in conference is probably the ceiling.

I think the Kryptonite may be injury, recovering from previous injury, and finally getting the conditioning tweaked just right.

 

[LUVMESUMVOL]

I hope CKC system works with these young ladies cause from what I see with their highlights and I hate to say it but it’s UCONN offense that would make this team a team that can win a lot of games with a lot of back doors and rub offs and catch and shoot off dribble penetration and that system allows you to be fundamentally sound which I think is this team strength over great athleticism but oh well run and gun for 40 minutes it is

 

[VintageFan]

Creme sees the LVs as a 9 seed.

Perhaps the scariest thing about that is that Creme predicted much better finishes for the Lady Vols the last few years than they were able to achieve. If they fall short of his prediction again it would be a disaster.

 

[volbeast33]

I hope CKC system works with these young ladies cause from what I see with their highlights and I hate to say it but it’s UCONN offense that would make this team a team that can win a lot of games with a lot of back doors and rub offs and catch and shoot off dribble penetration and that system allows you to be fundamentally sound which I think is this team strength over great athleticism but oh well run and gun for 40 minutes it is

What’s wrong with run and gun?

 

[Golfteacher]

I was just thinking. Suppose that CALDWELL'S LADY VOLS not only breezed through their early season schedule, but went through the SEC schedule just as effectively collecting a record of more than 30 games averaging almost 95 points a game. And then they coasted through the NCAA tournament winning it all to become the NATIONAL CHAMPION. I wonder what everyone would say then about KIM CALDWELL?

It would be one of the greatest coaching jobs in women’s basketball, perhaps the greatest coaching jobs in sports history. I would like to see CKC shock the sports world, however, I would not count on it.

 

[lvocd]

I was just thinking. Suppose that CALDWELL'S LADY VOLS not only breezed through their early season schedule, but went through the SEC schedule just as effectively collecting a record of more than 30 games averaging almost 95 points a game. And then they coasted through the NCAA tournament winning it all to become the NATIONAL CHAMPION. I wonder what everyone would say then about KIM CALDWELL?

Oh my goodness, I know I would be beside myself with happiness for the players and the program, and I’d be praising the entire coaching staff as having pulled off the biggest miracle in the history of college sports.

 

[Dak1219]

One of the reasons I have no doubt that the Lady Vols this year will be successful was watching the play of NAOMI WHITE in her highlight films. When I tried to compare her to the Pauldo twins, it was incredible. I could not imagine either twin doing what WHITE did in her videos.

You haven't had a chance to compare Naomi White to the Pauldo twins in SEC level play. We have had what were supposed to be prolific high-scoring 3-point shooters and scorers come from other leagues many times. Leagues where they were first- and second-team all-conference and looked great. They get to the SEC, and now they have to compete against stronger, taller, faster and more talented players than they have ever played against. Many of these players look very different and much less skilled when you put them up against the strength and athleticism of the players in the SEC conference.

 

[KTrain]

Creme sees the LVs as a 9 seed.

I think that is as good of guess as any. If the team just came together and had incredible chemistry they could do some better than that 9 seed. Also they could just have some bad chemistry and not mesh at all and finish worse than a 9 seed.

 

[glv98]

I think that is as good of guess as any. If the team just came together and had incredible chemistry they could do some better than that 9 seed. Also they could just have some bad chemistry and not mesh at all and finish worse than a 9 seed.

Or it could have nothing to do with chemistry or effort and have more to do with a talent deficit.

 

[greenwolfe@gmail.com Ran]

You haven't had a chance to compare Naomi White to the Pauldo twins in SEC level play. We have had what were supposed to be prolific high-scoring 3-point shooters and scorers come from other leagues many times. Leagues where they were first- and second-team all-conference and looked great. They get to the SEC, and now they have to compete against stronger, taller, faster and more talented players than they have ever played against. Many of these players look very different and much less skilled when you put them up against the strength and athleticism of the players in the SEC conference.

I have to honestly disagree with you on that. I think there is a myth out there about the supposed difference between the SEC and other levels of competition. While there may be more talent overall in the SEC, the real differences aren't all that great. A good player is a good player no matter where they play. NAOMI WHITE will succeed just as much here in TENNESSEE as she did in NORTHERN ARIZONA. I have learned over the course of my 75 years that one of the most common mistakes is to overestimate competition. Time and time again, people have told me that "you just wait until they meet stiffer competition, they'll not be as good."And repeatedly, I have discovered that is just not true. The quality of a great player is never diminished by their competition, in fact, they usually get better. NAOMI WHITE is not only going to be great in TENNESSEE, she will dominate her opponents.

 

[Chippo]

I was just thinking. Suppose that CALDWELL'S LADY VOLS not only breezed through their early season schedule, but went through the SEC schedule just as effectively collecting a record of more than 30 games averaging almost 95 points a game. And then they coasted through the NCAA tournament winning it all to become the NATIONAL CHAMPION. I wonder what everyone would say then about KIM CALDWELL?

Let's wait and see if that happens. That's a
Big if !!!

 

[Chippo]

What’s wrong with run and gun?

I guess it's just whether you like it or not,,
Or if you prefer regular conventional
Basketball. Just a matter of preference.