A Different View

#2
#2
Originally posted by volman04@Jul 31, 2005 7:58 AM
What do you guys think of this?

http://leftyloon.blogspot.com/
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The ramblings of a man who has little to no knowledge of college football.

Just as baseball's standings are always different than the preceding year, so is college football's. No one can predict the finish of a coming season based on the theory employeed in that blog.

A far better barometer is:

How did the team finish the previous year (this provides impetus as to how well or poorly the team responded to coaching, injuries etc.)

How many returning starters a team has and the quality of those starters based on previous performance, eg., Vandy returns 20 starters, big deal, they lost 9 games.

Number of experienced players returning in key positions- Skills players, DLine, Special teams ....

The quality of the incoming freshmen class and their projected ability to contribute in regards to playing time.

The stability of the coaching staff (have there been changes-a head coaching change can make or break any program- loss of key coordinators etc.

 
#5
#5
"Now some will tell you that winning close games is the sign of a good football team and that it shows character and determination. I am inclined to replace the words 'character' and 'determination' with 'luck'. Tennessee was a 4 or 5 win SEC team that won 7 games thanks in large part to a number of good breaks. In my opinion, Tennessee should be favored to finish the season ranked 3rd....."


wow, he is a joke.
 
#6
#6
Major League baseball hasnt a thing to do with any level of football. What the Vols, Dawgs, Tide et al., did in 2004 has no bearing on what they will do in 2005. Everybody on a football teams at every level has to adjust to key loses from their teams.

The "Pythagorean Theorem" will never apply to football with any measure of success. Not too sure it can be applied to any sport with any level of success.
 
#7
#7
Maybe you guys just dont agree with what hes saying? No Im with you guys, UT should be favored 1st, but it seems that anything that disagrees with you guys is stupid, ignorant, a mental midget, or fuzzy. Just my 2 cents.
 
#8
#8
hmm..first post and a link to a brand new site? Matt is that you?
 
#9
#9
Originally posted by GatorVille@Jul 31, 2005 1:06 PM
Maybe you guys just dont agree with what hes saying?  No Im with you guys, UT should be favored 1st, but it seems that anything that disagrees with you guys is stupid, ignorant, a mental midget, or fuzzy.  Just my 2 cents.
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Gatorville, you are a stupid, ignoarant, mental midget!!! :p

Just kidding, but this is a really weak statistical argument. Trying to predict the outcome of a football season based on the point differentials from the previous year defies all logic especially when you consider that a 24 point loss against Auburn last year has to skew our results. You can't take a formula that was designed for a 162 game baseball schedule and apply it to football. There are too many variables like schedule, home field advantage, ever changing personal, injuries etc. for something like this to be valid.
 
#10
#10
Originally posted by GatorVille@Jul 31, 2005 10:06 AM
Maybe you guys just dont agree with what hes saying?  No Im with you guys, UT should be favored 1st, but it seems that anything that disagrees with you guys is stupid, ignorant, a mental midget, or fuzzy.  Just my 2 cents.
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No, if somebody had us picked as low as third in the East, I would be alright with it... We have a tough schedule and that is still a distinct possibility. But I'd like to see some sort of legitimate argument besides a weird math formula.
 
#11
#11
Yes, I agree milo, math has no part in football. My point is though, whenever someone or something picks the vols to not finish first, they are as I said, ignorant, stupid, a mental midget...etc. Guys like Herbstreit, Alberts, and other so called "experts" make their picks, and they are the dumbest thing in the world.
 
#13
#13
Well, its been a while since Ive heard much from him, and most of the time hes not that bad. I dissagree with a lot of what he says, but at the same time, hes right on some things aswell. Dont really pay that much attention to him though, Mark May is a moron. But I ususally listen to the Gameday crew. Whats your beef with Herbstreit.
 
#14
#14
I don't really have one. I find the GameDay Crew pretty entertaining, I just think Trev has no idea what he's talking about... Like, picking Gerald Riggs as a strong contender for the Heisman then saying we are one of the most overrated teams out there. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it an unwritten rule that you have to win a bunch to get the Heisman? Strange.

Herbstreit is alright, but he seems to come out of left field from time to time with the things he says.
 
#15
#15
Originally posted by GatorVille@Jul 31, 2005 12:06 PM
Maybe you guys just dont agree with what hes saying?  No Im with you guys, UT should be favored 1st, but it seems that anything that disagrees with you guys is stupid, ignorant, a mental midget, or fuzzy.  Just my 2 cents.
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So what's your point???


:laugh1:
 
#16
#16
Originally posted by vol_freak@Jul 31, 2005 2:25 PM
hmm..first post and a link to a brand new site? Matt is that you?
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THats what I was thinking.....served!
 
#17
#17
Originally posted by NCGatorBait@Jul 31, 2005 5:08 PM
THats what I was thinking.....served!
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And, may I ask, who is Matt? :blink:
 
#18
#18
Originally posted by OldVol@Jul 31, 2005 6:52 PM
And, may I ask, who is Matt?  :blink:
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OV you aren't that old yet are ya?? :dlol: Click on the link..it gives the guys name in the right corner! :neener:
 
#19
#19
Now THAT my friend, is a person with too much time on his hands. If you notice, he's in Columbia, SC, which explains a lot. I do hope, however, that since he is a "student," he is not planning on submitting this as a senior thesis. Otherwise, he'll be a 24-year-old "student" next year.

This is great: "Some will tell you that winning close games is the sign of a good football team and that it shows character and determination. I am inclined to replace the words 'character' and 'determination' with 'luck'."

A true student of the game, eh? Hitting the double-zero on the roulette wheel is luck. Goal-line stands, game-winning field goals, forced turnovers, and hurry-up scoring drives qualify as "character" and "determination" in my book.

Of course, I probably am about as qualified as this buffoon to author a web page on football rankings. BUT. . . . you can search far and wide and "google" till your eyes fall out, and you will fail to find my "Astrological Proof that Steve Spurrier Will Not Win at South Carolina" page.

Oh, and Matt: congrats in advance on yet another 4th place finish in the SEC East.
 
#20
#20
Interesting approach but his caveat says it all.

A sample size of 8 or so football games will yield no valid results, especially given the amount of variability in the occurrences. A sample size of 162 is better but still probably lacking the statistical power for stable predictability.

This has been lesson #7 in our statistics lecture series :p
 
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