A Flawed System

#1
SaluteToTheHill

SaluteToTheHill

Wide Receiver U
Joined
Sep 22, 2008
Messages
4,952
Likes
581
#1
I doubt this is breaking news to anyone but the current system sucks. There is not enough emphasis on strength of schedule, IMO. Here is the current BCS top 25 along with their SOS (according to Phil Steele). I don't think you should be able to crack the top 25 unless your SOS is in the top 50 or 60. I don't get how a team with a SOS of 93 (TCU) or 91 (Nevada) out of 120 teams can be ranked so high. They keep winning because they play cupcakes every week. 80 and up should be ineligible. Then there are the borderline teams like Ohio St (beaten 1 ranked team, lost to Wis)and Nebraska (beaten one ranked team, lost to TX). I would put a top 25 SOS team with one loss ahead of either of them. If they get left out a time or two maybe they would schedule tougher teams. Rant over. :)

1 Auburn 19
2 Oregon 55
3 Boise St 87
4 TCU 93
5 Michigan St 58
6 Missouri 54
7 Alabama 15
8 Utah 83
9 Oklahoma 22
10 Wisconsin 85
11 Ohio St 61
12 LSU 10
13 Stanford 34
14 Nebraska 76
15 Arizona 40
16 Florida St 11
17 Oklahoma St 30
18 Iowa 35
19 Arkansas 33
20 South Carolina 2
21 Mississippi St 4
22 Miami 80
23 Virginia Tech 47
24 Nevada 91
25 Baylor 41
 
#2
#2
Another flaw is that strength of schedule is as flawed a statistic as the actual rankings. SOS very wildly varies depending on the source. Rivals used numbers placing Iregon at 112th and Auburn at 10th... SOS is, in the end, based on the subjective matter of the strength of the teams faced. This entire system was pulled out of someone's ass. It is a guess. Put computers on the case and it is just an approximation of the real world intended to take out bias, but it really only adds fuel to the fire. It will never be perfect because there is no perfect way to do this. Even a playoff has flaws because if the goal is to have the best team crowned champion, you'll likely have a team like South Carolina beating a vastly superior Alabama team. People complain about the BCS, but what system achieves it's stated goal better? Everyone has an idea, but that idea is usually to the benefit of the team they are currently cheering for. My opinion? I would prefer a playoff that utilizes a tiered form of the bowl system. Hell, it could even be based on the BCS formula. That way the bowl reward is still there for a good season and the big boys sort it out at the top. On the field.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#3
#3
I expect to get some heat for this, but another problem is margin of victory is not included in any of the computer rankings. With a 12-13 game season there isn't a big enough sample for a computer to accurately rank 120 teams based just on wins and losses and strength of schedule. Margin of victory included in the formula helps alleviate that problem somewhat. Of course, no matter what you do to the BCS, it will leave deserving teams out some years.

As far as a situation like South Carolina beating Alabama in a playoff, Alabama can't say a word because they had the chance to do it on the field. If you lose a game in the playoffs there's no poll or computer to blame, you lost the game.
 
#4
#4
#5
#5
I agree with you guys, there really is not a good way to do this but the system needs to be tweaked. It just kills me to see teams like TCU and Nevada ranked in the top 25. Thanks marevul, I will check that site out.
 
#6
#6
torchb said:
I expect to get some heat for this, but another problem is margin of victory is not included in any of the computer rankings. With a 12-13 game season there isn't a big enough sample for a computer to accurately rank 120 teams based just on wins and losses and strength of schedule. Margin of victory included in the formula helps alleviate that problem somewhat. Of course, no matter what you do to the BCS, it will leave deserving teams out some years.
Click to expand...

The opposite of heat: thank you for bringing logic to the table here.

No formula can replace head to head match-ups. However, it's simply a fact that we have concrete, football based measurements (called "points" by most) to make ratings more substantiated than the current ones used.

I'm beginning to believe that part of the problem is that the average person hasn't retained 15 minutes of math knowledge from their education.
 
#7
#7
wheaton4prez said:
The opposite of heat: thank you for bringing logic to the table here.

No formula can replace head to head match-ups. However, it's simply a fact that we have concrete, football based measurements (called "points" by most) to make ratings more substantiated than the current ones used.

I'm beginning to believe that part of the problem is that the average person hasn't retained 15 minutes of math knowledge from their education.
Click to expand...

Or perhaps, regardless of the formula, the results suck?
 
#8
#8
Lot's of people also think it sucks when their rival scores 6 points on their team. That doesn't mean it should be called back.

The same principle should apply to rating teams for seeding purposes. It's a game of rules. Not a game of opinions.
 
#9
#9
wheaton4prez said:
]Lot's of people also think it sucks when their rival scores 6 points on their team. That doesn't mean it should be called back.[/B]

The same principle should apply to rating teams for seeding purposes. It's a game of rules. Not a game of opinions.
Click to expand...

Wow... :lolabove:
 
#10
#10
Bumi said:
Or perhaps, regardless of the formula, the results suck?
Click to expand...
Well, there is that. I was just trying to come up with something to make them suck less under the current system. Until there's a playoff there's a very large suck factor.
 
#11
#11
Vols4evr said:
I agree with you guys, there really is not a good way to do this but the system needs to be tweaked. It just kills me to see teams like TCU and Nevada ranked in the top 25. Thanks marevul, I will check that site out.
Click to expand...
Why does it kill you to see good teams in the top 25?
 
#12
#12
Bumi said:
Wow... :lolabove:
Click to expand...

Is that all you've got? A smiley?

I think that my quote boils your argument down to what it is very well. Because you don't personally like the results of a rating system based on your eye-ball feeling for how the rankings should go you want to count some points scored by some teams and not others.

Maybe if you understood how the formulas worked, you would realize that. But, keep watching shadows on the cave wall if you prefer, my friend.
 
#13
#13
How ridiculous.I'm sick of teams bashing the non bcs teams. TCU isn't just winning, they're shutting down every team they've played. Teams wont schedule them, they can't help that.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#15
#15
wheaton4prez said:
Is that all you've got? A smiley?
Click to expand...

Considering the ridiculousness of your post, an emoticon was all that was deserving.

I think that my quote boils your argument down to what it is very well. Because you don't personally like the results of a rating system based on your eye-ball feeling for how the rankings should go you want to count some points scored by some teams and not others
Click to expand...

You're correct. I have no tolerance for a system that produces results completely contradictory to the reality of college football.

You yourself have admitted it's a flawed system, yet you treat it as if it's law and or the manual by which college football teams should be measured.

Maybe if you understood how the formulas worked, you would realize that. But, keep watching shadows on the cave wall if you prefer, my friend.
Click to expand...

Will Hunting, you don't understand the formula. You don't have any more knowledge of his hidden formula than any of the rest of us. If so, please feel free to break it down for all those who don't understand, and don't have personal access to Sagarin.

I'll start out with a question I've asked you before. You don't need to know the sport if you fully understand the formulas used to produce the results.(as you've claimed)

Why did Illinois finish ahead of Duke in the all time Basketball schools list despite having less overall wins, a lower winning percentage, sent a smaller number of players to the NBA, has less tournament births, and less(none actually) National championships?

And since you wont be able to answer that; In 2002, why did Sagarin's system have a two loss USC team finishing the season ranked above an undefeated Ohio State team, who played in the National title game and won, beating the best team in the nation to do so?
 
#17
#17
volfanbill said:
How ridiculous.I'm sick of teams bashing the non bcs teams. TCU isn't just winning, they're shutting down every team they've played. Teams wont schedule them, they can't help that.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

Whats ridiculous is ranking a team like TCU 4th in the country! Alot of teams could win big with their schedule. Do you really think they are the 4th best team in the NCAA? I don't buy this teams wont schedule them crap either. Boise St has screamed that the last couple of years yet they wont mention what teams have turned them down. I'm not saying they are bad or trying to bash them. They are a decent to good team but 4th in the nation, no way.
 
#18
#18
Vols4evr said:
Whats ridiculous is ranking a team like TCU 4th in the country! Alot of teams could win big with their schedule. Do you really think they are the 4th best team in the NCAA? I don't buy this teams wont schedule them crap either. Boise St has screamed that the last couple of years yet they wont mention what teams have turned them down. I'm not saying they are bad or trying to bash them. They are a decent to good team but 4th in the nation, no way.
Click to expand...
The problem is they might be, we don't know. The ranked opponent they played, they mashed. You can't fault a team for their conference. I think you can make a good case for them being one of the best 5 in the country. I'd love to see them play some top 10 teams, but because there are so many teams, you don't always get the best against the best. That's why we need a playoff, to see who the best is on the field.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top