Tell ya what, heres what I've concluded.
Why the Big12-2 will not survive.
It’s only a matter of time until the Big12-2 falls apart and many, like me, are predicting this only lasting 5 years or less. In the mean time though, I think we’ve been set up for failure and it’s on a larger scale than some of the perceived “top dogs” of the conference have cared to comment on. I’d like to address that now.
In the SEC, the schedules are pretty stout from start to finish. Sure the schools distribute some funds to smaller schools and invite them for an over the top butt kicking, and some even get that once in a blue moon upset. (See Ole Miss v Jacksonville State 2010.) My focus is more on the type of schedule Mississippi State is playing right now though. In week two the Bulldogs faced Auburn. This week they face LSU. That’s two conference games within the first three weeks. Their OOC games? They’ll play U of H in Houston on October 9th.
Next, take a look at Alabama and Tennessee. The Tide faced a ranked Penn State team in week two. Tennessee hosted a ranked Oregon team in the same week, and will follow that with a match up with conference rival Florida this week! I’ll argue that LSU is playing one of the toughest schedules in the SEC. Take a look for yourself if you need proof. I digress though; this is not my attempt to point out how dominant the SEC is by any means. These are just examples that will aide in the validation of my concern.
In the Big 12, schools have had the luxury of hosting non-conference games for the first three consecutive weeks. Smaller schools like SFA, Troy, Directional Louisiana, and Wyoming all venture out and collect their paychecks. It’s been a balanced system for all really. The issue now becomes the lack of opportunity to do that though.
Potentially, the Big12-2 will be going head to head much earlier in the season than ever before, thus leading some coaches to be more hesitant to schedule “Big” OOC games when they finally get the chance. And why would they? Because Dan Beebe asked them to in the Big12 Media days prior to the start of this year?
Can you imagine how risky that would be for Bob Stoops and Mack Brown, both of which pride themselves on making the effort to schedule “tough” OOC match ups? You’re really challenging yourself by taking on Florida Atlantic in the second to last game of the season Mack. Good luck trying to pull that off in the future though. Now I’ll cut Big Game Bob some slack by facing Utah early, then following that with Florida State this year, but don’t these guys see the writing on the wall?
The Big12-2 will take a dive in my opinion. They’ll take a dive and lose credibility at an alarming rate due to the fact that conference rivals will now have less time to tune themselves in by facing weaker opponents early in the year. See Texas A&M vs. LaTech 2010 if you need an example. It’s going to be the death of the preseason rankings for the big boys, and here’s why.
When a team like Oklahoma State rolls into Lubbock Texas on week two and the famed “40 year old Man” gets rolled up by a coach like Tommy Tuberville (who came from the SEC and has experience in getting teams ready for true Conference battles early in the season), preseason voters are going to lose their minds. And credibility.
Its simply putting us Big12-2 fans in a predicament. We pride ourselves on being one of the upper echelon conferences in the NCAA and rightfully so. Our conference plays for the National Championship on a regular basis, but they also lose to an SEC team on a regular basis. You’d think someone would notice.
My prediction is, the Big12-2 will be a shell of what it used to be and shortly after the two loss Longhorns or a two loss Sooners team are sitting on the sidelines watching the likes of Ohio State play for a Glass Football at the end of the year, then things will change. I.e. The collapse of the Big12-2 as we knew it.
Preseason rankings have often been scoffed at, but I fear that next year, they may be more important than ever. The stakes will be higher. The competition will be better earlier, and the impending upsets will cost teams more than ever. Can these current Big12-2 coaches get their boys up for the challenge to do serious battle that early? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain. They’ve got their work cut out for them if they want to continue to reap the rewards of having a representative in the National Championship game.
Your thoughts?
