A State of the Program Address (longish)

[37620VOL]

It's hard to know where to start because this team is so perplexing. As much as we always (legitimately) gripe about turnovers, I really believe that the problem with this team is squarely on the defensive side.

Using advanced statistics (and supported by our observations), this is the worst LV defense in the last 15 years, and that's only because the stats that I look at only go back the last 15 years. Bottom line, I can't remember a LV defense worse than this one and my recall goes back to the Meeks but not much further back than that. This year our defense is in the 39th percentile - just putrid. The only year on record that was close to this bad was the year Holly got canned and even that team managed the 44th percentile.

IMO the goal should be 90th percentile on offense and defense. We hit that on offense just last season and we are within striking distance this season. The last time we hit the mark on defense? 2014-2015, also our last 30-win season?

So where are we bad at defense?

3point defense! We are in the 16th percentile nationally for opponents' 3-point %. At this point, it's not just bad luck, it's us. This is happening because most of the 3s that we allow are lightly contested. We get lost or we help and no one rotates. Opponents are not having to fight for open looks, we aren't playing at a level of physicality that affects shooting touch.

We are in the 93rd percentile for fouling. Sound great, we don't foul much. Nope, it's a sign of lack of physicality and toughness. We aren't making opponents work for it. We aren't testing the defensive advantages the officials might let us get away with. Our guards draw the least fouls, this is part of the reason they get blown by so often. This is why layups are barely contested. This is why steals are so rare.

There's more to work on, but contesting 3-pointers and bringing a more physical brand of defense are the 2 most pressing problems that are easily correctable.

On our roster, who is bad at defense?

The easier answer is who is good at defense. Key, Key is good at defense -- advanced statistics say she is way above average on defense and far and away our best defender.

~Jackson and Hollingshead grade out as average.
~Striplin, Darby, and Puckett grade out as run-of-the-mill bad.
~Surprisingly, Wynn and Powell grade out as very bad (maybe because they are given the toughest defensive assignment). Regardless, the number is still bad.
~Spear is even worse, just atrocious.

So where do we go from here?

1. I think Hollingshed or Key need to play at all times with a defend-the-rim mentality. We need Key as many minutes as possible.
2. We need to get Jackson right and we need here as many minutes as she can go.
3. We need Powell and Spear to really pick up their defense, be more physical, bump, push, hold, create friction, let no movement be easy or unabated for the opponent.
4. Puckett, Wynn, Striplin, and Strickland need to be just as relentless as the main cast previously mentioned. We have to be meaner and tougher, because "nice girls" don't win basketball games.

I think my "goto" lineup at the end of the game would be Powell, Spear, Jackson, Hollingshed, and Key but my starting lineup would be Powell, Spear, Jackson, Puckett, and Key.

 

[Majors]

Only a few were concerned that Troy scored 70 points. Too many were elated about hitting the 100 point mark to notice.

 

[dapeak]

Only a few were concerned that Troy scored 70 points. Too many were elated about hitting the 100 point mark to notice.

After the FAMU game Coach Gordon said straight up I’m post game “they didn’t stop anything we tried to do, we just didn’t hit shots”

That was telling then, and it’s telling now.

 

[volroadwarrior]

Another thing that frustrates me that doesn't show up in the stats is the dismal way we are able to get the 50/50 ball. When we do get it we always lose it to a tie up jump ball or the other team snatches it away.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Your stats do reveal a lot and puts to bed that some things being complained about are not just negavol opinions. I never believed they were anyway. You can tell when a poster knows what their talking about vs a troll.

Good post but I don't see anything changing at this point in the season just like TO's remain in the high teens and have been since Kellie has been here. Finish out the season and see what happens.

 

[37620VOL]

Your stats do reveal a lot and puts to bed that some things being complained about are not just negavol opinions. I never believed they were anyway. You can tell when a poster knows what their talking about vs a troll.

Good post but I don't see anything changing at this point in the season just like TO's remain in the high teens and have been since Kellie has been here. Finish out the season and see what happens.

I truly hate TOs and wish we could get to a 12 per game average. Some will say it's our pace of play that increases our number of TOs. There is *some* truth in that.

The LVs TOs: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rank


Going with the TO Rate that means 68% commit more TOs than us on a per possession basis. Unfortunately, we must consider the flip side.

The LVs caused TOs: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rank


Only 4 NCAA teams cause fewer TOs on a per possession basis than the LVs. Just like with the 3-point % against us, opposing offenses are just way to comfortable running their offense, getting to their spots, and taking shots in rhythm. We need to be much more tough and physical in every aspect of our defense and actually make opponents' offenses strain for every shot opportunity. No more "nice girl" defense. No smiling allowed unless you get a steal.

 

[Volfan2012]

I said they couldn't play defense very well after the Carson Newman exhibition and nothing has changed much. Key really helps as the perimeter players can extend and she can stop some of the blow buys when opponents have to drive the basket. It at least cuts down on the three point baskets. Coach Kellie seemed to think that Karoline and Sarah could handle Coulably, Barker and their big center. That was as close to coaching malpractice as a coach can get. All I can think is that Jill and Tamari were not feeling well as Tamari only 13 minutes when she had went over 20 before. Jill did play 23 she is a better option for bigs than Karoline or Sarah, but no where close to Tamari. What other reason would you not play them more? We've got the same problem today stopping Carter inside and at the same time will have to stop two or three really good three point shooters.

 

[Butch s]

It's hard to know where to start because this team is so perplexing. As much as we always (legitimately) gripe about turnovers, I really believe that the problem with this team is squarely on the defensive side.

Using advanced statistics (and supported by our observations), this is the worst LV defense in the last 15 years, and that's only because the stats that I look at only go back the last 15 years. Bottom line, I can't remember a LV defense worse than this one and my recall goes back to the Meeks but not much further back than that. This year our defense is in the 39th percentile - just putrid. The only year on record that was close to this bad was the year Holly got canned and even that team managed the 44th percentile.

IMO the goal should be 90th percentile on offense and defense. We hit that on offense just last season and we are within striking distance this season. The last time we hit the mark on defense? 2014-2015, also our last 30-win season?

So where are we bad at defense?

3point defense! We are in the 16th percentile nationally for opponents' 3-point %. At this point, it's not just bad luck, it's us. This is happening because most of the 3s that we allow are lightly contested. We get lost or we help and no one rotates. Opponents are not having to fight for open looks, we aren't playing at a level of physicality that affects shooting touch.

We are in the 93rd percentile for fouling. Sound great, we don't foul much. Nope, it's a sign of lack of physicality and toughness. We aren't making opponents work for it. We aren't testing the defensive advantages the officials might let us get away with. Our guards draw the least fouls, this is part of the reason they get blown by so often. This is why layups are barely contested. This is why steals are so rare.

There's more to work on, but contesting 3-pointers and bringing a more physical brand of defense are the 2 most pressing problems that are easily correctable.

On our roster, who is bad at defense?

The easier answer is who is good at defense. Key, Key is good at defense -- advanced statistics say she is way above average on defense and far and away our best defender.

~Jackson and Hollingshead grade out as average.
~Striplin, Darby, and Puckett grade out as run-of-the-mill bad.
~Surprisingly, Wynn and Powell grade out as very bad (maybe because they are given the toughest defensive assignment). Regardless, the number is still bad.
~Spear is even worse, just atrocious.

So where do we go from here?

1. I think Hollingshed or Key need to play at all times with a defend-the-rim mentality. We need Key as many minutes as possible.
2. We need to get Jackson right and we need here as many minutes as she can go.
3. We need Powell and Spear to really pick up their defense, be more physical, bump, push, hold, create friction, let no movement be easy or unabated for the opponent.
4. Puckett, Wynn, Striplin, and Strickland need to be just as relentless as the main cast previously mentioned. We have to be meaner and tougher, because "nice girls" don't win basketball games.

I think my "goto" lineup at the end of the game would be Powell, Spear, Jackson, Hollingshed, and Key but my starting lineup would be Powell, Spear, Jackson, Puckett, and Key.

This coincides with us having the worst coach we’ve had in 15 years

 

[Volfaninfl2]

I said they couldn't play defense very well after the Carson Newman exhibition and nothing has changed much. Key really helps as the perimeter players can extend and she can stop some of the blow buys when opponents have to drive the basket. It at least cuts down on the three point baskets. Coach Kellie seemed to think that Karoline and Sarah could handle Coulably, Barker and their big center. That was as close to coaching malpractice as a coach can get. All I can think is that Jill and Tamari were not feeling well as Tamari only 13 minutes when she had went over 20 before. Jill did play 23 she is a better option for bigs than Karoline or Sarah, but no where close to Tamari. What other reason would you not play them more? We've got the same problem today stopping Carter inside and at the same time will have to stop two or three really good three point shooters.

Maybe she didn’t play Jillian more because good things didn’t happen when she was on the floor. She rated -14 in the plus/minus rating, the only one worse was Tess at -17, who didn’t score at all. Jillian often stood above the free throw line, looking for someone to pass to, and it did not work well.

Jillian “looks” like she should be good, and she is our next tallest player after Tamari, but she doesn’t like to play under the basket. What we see is potential, so maybe at some point she will fulfill that potential, I hope so.

 

[glv98]

This coincides with us having the worst coach we’ve had in 15 years

Ridiculous.

​

I said they couldn't play defense very well after the Carson Newman exhibition and nothing has changed much

While we def need to improve on D, we always knew this team would basically need to outscore teams to win. I thought alot of games would look like Florida St. It's why the portal players, Jewel and Destinee were clearly offense over defense players, hoped to be solid background scorers to Rickea being Rickea.

So the bottom line for us is we have to make shots. When we don't, and esp when Rickea doesn't as well, we're toast. Also have to limit turnovers so we get more chances to take shots. And make them. Hopefully D improves in the future, but for what's left of this season we simply have to hit shots.

 

[glv98]

​

Maybe she didn’t play Jillian more because good things didn’t happen when she was on the floor. She rated -14 in the plus/minus rating, the only one worse was Tess at -17, who didn’t score at all. Jillian often stood above the free throw line, looking for someone to pass to, and it did not work well.

Jillian “looks” like she should be good, and she is our next tallest player after Tamari, but she doesn’t like to play under the basket. What we see is potential, so maybe at some point she will fulfill that potential, I hope so.

Jill has a very smooth shot and she has been one of the only ones aggresively rebounding the last few games. But KJH has said several times lately she considers Jill a backup to Rickea on offense who looks for the same shots.So that severely limits how she will be used. I think Jill could have a big yr next yr.

 

[Volfan2012]

​

Jill has a very smooth shot and she has been one of the only ones aggresively rebounding the last few games. But KJH has said several times lately she considers Jill a backup to Rickea on offense who looks for the same shots.So that severely limits how she will be used. I think Jill could have a big yr next yr.

A lot of the games it is fine to go with Karoline and Sarah. Certain games like A&M and today they don't matchup well. The teams they matchup well against are Florida. Auburn, Missouri, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and to some extent Ole Miss. None have dominating center

 

[glv98]

A lot of the games it is fine to go with Karoline and Sarah. Certain games like A&M and today they don't matchup well. The teams they matchup well against are Florida. Auburn, Missouri, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and to some extent Ole Miss. None have dominating center

totally agree and have said that rotation needs to be decided by matchups, and also by how Rickea is able to score. I thought TK and Jill coming in early Sunday was a determent to her scoring. Her outside shot hasn't been falling so option 2 is to post her up. She has to rebound her ass off though if she plays down there and didn't do it Sunday. It's all a big puzzle.

 

[Coach Jumper]

Maybe she didn’t play Jillian more because good things didn’t happen when she was on the floor. She rated -14 in the plus/minus rating, the only one worse was Tess at -17, who didn’t score at all. Jillian often stood above the free throw line, looking for someone to pass to, and it did not work well.

Jillian “looks” like she should be good, and she is our next tallest player after Tamari, but she doesn’t like to play under the basket. What we see is potential, so maybe at some point she will fulfill that potential, I hope so.

Maybe if Jillian has the amount of time to get better as other players had,,,she would be more confident and proficient....Just a thought

 

[Volfan2012]

totally agree and have said that rotation needs to be decided by matchups, and also by how Rickea is able to score. I thought TK and Jill coming in early Sunday was a determent to her scoring. Her outside shot hasn't been falling so option 2 is to post her up. She has to rebound her ass off though if she plays down there and didn't do it Sunday. It's all a big puzzle.

I expect in the game today Miss St will go directly to Carter we'll see how Karoline does.

 

[glv98]

I expect in the game today Miss St will go directly to Carter we'll see how Karoline does.

I suspect she may struggle. Probably will try TK fairly early.

 

[Pheebs]

Lady Vol fans are suffering like the Lady Dawg fans. It’s a rough time for what used to be the main two SEC powerhouses!

 

[Pheebs]

Lady Vol and Lady Dawg fans are suffering right now. What used to be the two powerhouses in the SEC are mediocre at best.

 

[Volfan2012]

Lady Vol and Lady Dawg fans are suffering right now. What used to be the two powerhouses in the SEC are mediocre at best.

To be honest neither Athletic Department is putting much into either team being successful at the present time. You have to get an established coach that the best players are willing to play for. If you haven't done it in five years Tennessee probably not going to happen. Georgia went out and hired a coach from UCF, She is a good coach, but being able to get elite talent in there is going to be the problem.

 

[madtownvol]

Great post. Love the analytic support for you arguments!!

As the eye test has also suggested, Wynn's rep as a great defender is based on her athleticism and potential than her actual results.

Her def. positioning tends to be terrible. Same point holds for Spear

The debate, if there ever was one, is settled-- the LVs are a really crappy defensive team.

In terms of solutions, I am with glv98 . At this point in the season, the tiger basically has its stripes and it ain't suddenly turning into a leopard. You can shuffle line-ups all you want but you are still putting out combinations of poor to mediocre defenders on the court.

I would even say that Key's defensive stats are bit misleading. She is great at shot blocking and defending slower "back to the bucket" post players but her inherent lack of quickness and lateral mobility makes her a sitting duck against quicker centers (we saw that against Texas A&M) and posts who can shoot from the perimeter. She is our paint protector who greatly reduces blow-by lay-ups but she is no Brittany Griner.

This team has to score and shoot well to win. And offense is related to defense, Made buckets generally slow teams down and a let the defense get set. Making shots, rather than turning over the ball over also limits the opposing team's scoring opportunities. And we have to dominate the boards (giving us more possessions and the opponents less).

The new mantra should be "offense and rebounds" wins games.

I would feature to the extent possible the best shooting line-up we have - Spear, Powell, Jackson, Puckett, and Strip and hope for an offensive outburst. Use Key when the defensive bleeding gets extreme. I see Puckett and Tess as somewhat interchangeable, Go with who ever is "on". We have seen that Puckett can have high impact games or can become -+ disaster. Tess has to be hitting from the 3s to add value.

Related to Tess, this team is still faily shy about putting up threes, They have to got to be more willing to let em fly.

In the NBA, the Lakers have been facing this problem. They are a bad defensive team that kept going with line-ups that would presumably "be better" defensively. They never were and the losses kept piling up.

In the last few games, Coach Ham just switched to the line-ups which offer the most offensive punch and they have started to win more games.

 

[creekdipper]

SotP Address? I have only two words:

You lie!

 

[brittannica]

Great post. Love the analytic support for you arguments!!

As the eye test has also suggested, Wynn's rep as a great defender is based on her athleticism and potential than her actual results.

Her def. positioning tends to be terrible. Same point holds for Spear

The debate, if there ever was one, is settled-- the LVs are a really crappy defensive team.

In terms of solutions, I am with glv98 . At this point in the season, the tiger basically has its stripes and it ain't suddenly turning into a leopard. You can shuffle line-ups all you want but you are still putting out combinations of poor to mediocre defenders on the court.

I would even say that Key's defensive stats are bit misleading. She is great at shot blocking and defending slower "back to the bucket" post players but her inherent lack of quickness and lateral mobility makes her a sitting duck against quicker centers (we saw that against Texas A&M) and posts who can shoot from the perimeter. She is our paint protector who greatly reduces blow-by lay-ups but she is no Brittany Griner.

This team has to score and shoot well to win. And offense is related to defense, Made buckets generally slow teams down and a let the defense get set. Making shots, rather than turning over the ball over also limits the opposing team's scoring opportunities. And we have to dominate the boards (giving us more possessions and the opponents less).

The new mantra should be "offense and rebounds" wins games.

I would feature to the extent possible the best shooting line-up we have - Spear, Powell, Jackson, Puckett, and Strip and hope for an offensive outburst. Use Key when the defensive bleeding gets extreme. I see Puckett and Tess as somewhat interchangeable, Go with who ever is "on". We have seen that Puckett can have high impact games or can become -+ disaster. Tess has to be hitting from the 3s to add value.

Related to Tess, this team is still faily shy about putting up threes, They have to got to be more willing to let em fly.

In the NBA, the Lakers have been facing this problem. They are a bad defensive team that kept going with line-ups that would presumably "be better" defensively. They never were and the losses kept piling up.

In the last few games, Coach Ham just switched to the line-ups which offer the most offensive punch and they have started to win more games.

Relatively new to the UTK/the Lady Vols so I don’t remember Key pre-blood clots. Was she quicker and/or did she have more mobility before her medical leave? I described her in one game as the AT-ATs from Star Wars with speedier players zipping around her. I even wondered if her minutes were restricted so that wouldn’t be exposed.

 

[Volfan1000]

The Tennessee Lady Volunteers program has been in a slow decline since Summit retired in 2012.

Warlick and Harper have failed to obtain an Elite 8 or Final 4 appearance since then.

 

[Rons1989]

I think if kellie is going to play to bigs it should never be karoline and sara this is part of the reason our defense is atricious they cant switch cuz they are to slow and they dont protect the rim.....tamari/puckett or karoline, or hollingshed/puckett or karoline, or the latter which we see in tamari/hollingshed....its to much pressure on our perimeter defense to really guard without fouling or in our case jus staying in front of anybody with a pulse....

 

[creekdipper]

The Tennessee Lady Volunteers program has been in a slow decline since Summit retired in 2012.

Warlick and Harper have failed to obtain an Elite 8 or Final 4 appearance since then.

According to Wiki, the Lady Vols made the Elite Eight in 2013, 2015, and 2016.