All State "Playoff Predictor" says 76% for us

[BanditVol]

However, they are factoring in the ESPN App that says 80% chance to beat Vandy.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (Nov 30, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

www.espn.com

Doing a bit of math, if we beat Vandy, even if nothing else changes (like an upset of Miami), then it goes to 95%.

Which is just telling us what we already know...beat Vandy we are almost certainly in.

I'm not saying the All State app is that great, it has to be subjective at some level since the committee is 100% subjective (and how do you calculate that?) but whatever assumptions are built into it, it does not yet account for us beating vandy, and when we do we should be a virtual lock.

 

[bpalmer28]

However, they are factoring in the ESPN App that says 80% chance to beat Vandy.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (Nov 30, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

www.espn.com

Doing a bit of math, if we beat Vandy, even if nothing else changes (like an upset of Miami), then it goes to 95%.

Which is just telling us what we already know...beat Vandy we are almost certainly in.

I'm not saying the All State app is that great, it has to be subjective at some level since the committee is 100% subjective (and how do you calculate that?) but whatever assumptions are built into it, it does not yet account for us beating vandy, and when we do we should be a virtual lock.

I’d guess that’s got a 5% “safety factor” built into it for all calculations to account for the committee doing something stupid

 

[Bloodrunsorange27]

If we beat Vandy the probability of TN being in the playoffs is 100%.

 

[EastTNVol6240]

Beat Vandy and we’re in. It’s that simple. The question is can there be more chaos that lands us a hosting spot?

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

If we beat Vandy the probability of TN being in the playoffs is 100%.

Exactly. The only scenario I can think of now that could kick us out, and it would be very unlikely to happen, is A&M beating Texas, then beating UGA and getting the automatic bid and then the committee choosing to take a 3 loss UGA team and a 2 lossTexas team with no quality wins over us. Super unlikely to happen. But we are in day and age where it's all about money and eye balls and whatever ESPN wants. And they definitely want Bama, Texas and UGA all in the playoff. I'm still not convinced they don't sneak Bama in there before it's all said and done.

 

[CAVPUT]

Exactly. The only scenario I can think of now that could kick us out, and it would be very unlikely to happen, is A&M beating Texas, then beating UGA and getting the automatic bid and then the committee choosing to take a 3 loss UGA team and a 2 lossTexas team with no quality wins over us. Super unlikely to happen. But we are in day and age where it's all about money and eye balls and whatever ESPN wants. And they definitely want Bama, Texas and UGA all in the playoff. I'm still not convinced they don't sneak Bama in there before it's all said and done.

 

[obxvol]

 

[WillisWG]

"they remember what you do in November" Go get that W

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

Exactly. The only scenario I can think of now that could kick us out, and it would be very unlikely to happen, is A&M beating Texas, then beating UGA and getting the automatic bid and then the committee choosing to take a 3 loss UGA team and a 2 lossTexas team with no quality wins over us. Super unlikely to happen. But we are in day and age where it's all about money and eye balls and whatever ESPN wants. And they definitely want Bama, Texas and UGA all in the playoff. I'm still not convinced they don't sneak Bama in there before it's all said and done.

You’re reaching even with this, hombre. There is no scenario where 9-3 Bama gets in over 10-2 UT. UGA and TU are already ranked ahead of us, so in that scenario we’d only get bumped down to the 10 seed. Even then, I think Tejas falls below us with a loss in College Station.

LOL at CAVPUT liking your post though; some things never change.

 

[njvols]

If we beat Vandy the probability of TN being in the playoffs is 100%.

Exactly. Haven't read article but my assumption was that those projections are based upon factoring in Vandy game, which we are favored, but result unknown.

 

[Vfl2407]

However, they are factoring in the ESPN App that says 80% chance to beat Vandy.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (Nov 30, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

www.espn.com

Doing a bit of math, if we beat Vandy, even if nothing else changes (like an upset of Miami), then it goes to 95%.

Which is just telling us what we already know...beat Vandy we are almost certainly in.

I'm not saying the All State app is that great, it has to be subjective at some level since the committee is 100% subjective (and how do you calculate that?) but whatever assumptions are built into it, it does not yet account for us beating vandy, and when we do we should be a virtual lock.

However, they are factoring in the ESPN App that says 80% chance to beat Vandy.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (Nov 30, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

www.espn.com

Doing a bit of math, if we beat Vandy, even if nothing else changes (like an upset of Miami), then it goes to 95%.

Which is just telling us what we already know...beat Vandy we are almost certainly in.

I'm not saying the All State app is that great, it has to be subjective at some level since the committee is 100% subjective (and how do you calculate that?) but whatever assumptions are built into it, it does not yet account for us beating vandy, and when we do we should be a virtual lock.

It further has us at 93% of making playoffs with win over Vandy. 8% with a loss at Vandy.

 

[BigOrangeFanatic]

You’re reaching even with this, hombre. There is no scenario where 9-3 Bama gets in over 10-2 UT. UGA and TU are already ranked ahead of us, so in that scenario we’d only get bumped down to the 10 seed. Even then, I think Tejas falls below us with a loss in College Station.

LOL at CAVPUT liking your post though; some things never change.

I'm defintiely reaching on the part about us not making the playoff for sure. That's why I used the word "unlikely" two different times in my post. But you, like many, glaze over posts and automatically assume that because I left it open for us not to be in automtically, it automatically means I'm saying there's a 50/50 chance they leave us out, instead of it being more like a 99.99% chance that we are in with a win over Vandy which is what I actually believe.

Now, I do believe there's still a 50/50 chance they put Bama in there. It won't be over us, but you mark it down. Conversations are already being had about them still making it in.

 

[hardyemt_p]

However, they are factoring in the ESPN App that says 80% chance to beat Vandy.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (Nov 30, 2024) Live Score - ESPN

Live coverage of the Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores NCAAF game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.

www.espn.com

Doing a bit of math, if we beat Vandy, even if nothing else changes (like an upset of Miami), then it goes to 95%.

Which is just telling us what we already know...beat Vandy we are almost certainly in.

I'm not saying the All State app is that great, it has to be subjective at some level since the committee is 100% subjective (and how do you calculate that?) but whatever assumptions are built into it, it does not yet account for us beating vandy, and when we do we should be a virtual lock.

Gotta show up and play all 4 . This vandy team scares me to death. We win, we're in!!

 

[BigBadVol]

If we beat Vandy the probability of TN being in the playoffs is 100%.

This^^

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Exactly. The only scenario I can think of now that could kick us out, and it would be very unlikely to happen, is A&M beating Texas, then beating UGA and getting the automatic bid and then the committee choosing to take a 3 loss UGA team and a 2 lossTexas team with no quality wins over us. Super unlikely to happen. But we are in day and age where it's all about money and eye balls and whatever ESPN wants. And they definitely want Bama, Texas and UGA all in the playoff. I'm still not convinced they don't sneak Bama in there before it's all said and done.

Even if that happens, they are still going to be 4 sec teams in. No way only a 2 loss Tennessee isn’t one of them. Just don’t see any way we aren’t in if we beat Vandy.

 

[TNBV]

I'm defintiely reaching on the part about us not making the playoff for sure. That's why I used the word "unlikely" two different times in my post. But you, like many, glaze over posts and automatically assume that because I left it open for us not to be in automtically, it automatically means I'm saying there's a 50/50 chance they leave us out, instead of it being more like a 99.99% chance that we are in with a win over Vandy which is what I actually believe.

Now, I do believe there's still a 50/50 chance they put Bama in there. It won't be over us, but you mark it down. Conversations are already being had about them still making it in.

Maybe a chance but more like less than 5%. It would probably take 4 or 5 upsets this weekend to get to the 50/50 point. And ESPN does not give a damn who is in the playoffs as long as their fans watch on tv

 

[Vol865]

Would love to get home field advantage for the 1st round

 

[TNBV]

If Georgia Tech beats UGA this weekend then there area multiple teams with an outside shot. Even Bama. If UGA lost, then lost to say Texas in SEC championship then obviously they are out. Alabama would likely also need Clemson to beat USC this weekend, maybe Miami loose to Syracuse. Then only the ACC champ would be in. An Indiana loss to Purdue would be helpful as well as Miss St pulling the unlikely upset in the egg bowl.

 

[Unconditional Surrender]

If we beat Vandy the probability of TN being in the playoffs is 100%.

And if we lose it is like 1%