Another Worthless Poll

#3
#3
I wonder what would happen if they stopped polling for a week, let the candidates campaign and bicker without dedicating staff to watching and worrying about the polls?
 
#4
#4
BigPapaVol said:
Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%

How do these things continue to disagree so wildly, especially after the recent fireworks?

I suspect that every time Obama pulls the race card, he loses a respectable chunk.
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I put absolutely zero stock in Gallup's tracking polls anyways. Gallup's poll tend to disagree with Gallup's polls. I think the best things to look at right now are the state by state.
 
#5
#5
emainvol said:
I put absolutely zero stock in Gallup's tracking polls anyways. Gallup's poll tend to disagree with Gallup's polls. I think the best things to look at right now are the state by state.
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I happen to think they're all worthless. I'm just making the point that they're fickle as hell.
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#6
#6
emainvol said:
I put absolutely zero stock in Gallup's tracking polls anyways. Gallup's poll tend to disagree with Gallup's polls. I think the best things to look at right now are the state by state.
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Gallup is just the organization conducting the poll. The recent disconnect between their polls was partially due to sampling differences.

The state polls likewise are conducted by some organization (including Gallup) and can suffer the same sample issues.
 
#7
#7
Allvol123 poll says no one in his househould would ever vote for Obama. Poll has a margin of error of zero.
 
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#8
#8
volinbham said:
Gallup is just the organization conducting the poll. The recent disconnect between their polls was partially due to sampling differences.

The state polls likewise are conducted by some organization (including Gallup) and can suffer the same sample issues.
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I understand that, I should have included the word national in there.

The reason I don't like the Gallup national tracker is it is conducted daily, so it is bound to have issues. They also have a screwy way of picking the likely voters for that poll.
 
#10
#10
I think people expect too much from polls. They are moment in time snapshots of an issue. The value of tracking polls is not in their accuracy at any point in time but rather their ability to identify trends. They are indicators not facts.
 
#11
#11
speaking of hopeful trends, Rasmussen is reporting that the number of people who identify themselves as democrats has fallen 2% since January.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%.

While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.

The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.
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