Arizona Diamondbacks

#5
#5
Yeah so lucky that they did not have 1 month under .500...When does it become more than just luck?

They're also 32-9 in 1 run games.

Oh yeah and the shameless plug: I called this Division winner in March.
 
#6
#6
UTLCA said:
They're also 32-9 in 1 run games.
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A gaudy record in one-run games is always a good indicator that a team has been extraordinarily lucky. The 98 Yankees won 114 games, for example, but "only" went 21-10 in one-run games. The Diamondbacks have a pretty good team, but they're not that good.

The Diamondbacks have scored 4.4 runs per game and given up 4.5; with that ratio, you'd expect their won-loss record to be within a few games of 78-81. (Only two other teams in baseball are not within five games of their projected record.) Instead, they're 89-70. If you don't like the term "luck," then call it a "weird statistical outlier" or something. Whatever the case, teams that have a great record in one-run games usually regress the next year, and teams that have a terrible record in those games usually get better. Teams that win more games than expected tend to drift back towards .500; teams that win fewer than expected tend to improve.

None of this matters this year, of course; the Diamondbacks are in the playoffs, and the baseball postseason is mostly a crapshoot. But it's worth keeping in mind next year when you're predicting who will win the NL West. My money won't be on the Diamondbacks to do it again.
 
#7
#7
They are actually 90-70.

The reason they have been good in close games is because Valverde has 47 saves.
 
#8
#8
Vercingetorix said:
this[/i] year, of course; the Diamondbacks are in the playoffs, and the baseball postseason is mostly a crapshoot. But it's worth keeping in mind next year when you're predicting who will win the NL West. My money won't be on the Diamondbacks to do it again.
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Strongly disagree. First of all, they haven't won the NL West yet, but making the playoffs was going to happen in the next two years, anyway. The Diamondbacks have the best young talent in the division, and I truly believe they will be the best in the division next year, too. The Diamondbacks didn't pull the season out of no where. It was going to happen soon.
 
#9
#9
So I think Arizona just clinched the best record in the NL, and will play the Cubs.
 
#10
#10
tvolsfan said:
Strongly disagree. First of all, they haven't won the NL West yet, but making the playoffs was going to happen in the next two years, anyway. The Diamondbacks have the best young talent in the division, and I truly believe they will be the best in the division next year, too. The Diamondbacks didn't pull the season out of no where. It was going to happen soon.
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The Diamondbacks have a great young team, but they've overachieved this year. I wish them the best in the postseason, but come on. Mariano Rivera 1998 has chunks of Valverde in his stool, but yet even the 98 Yanks only had a +11 record in one-run games. Arizona has been ridiculously lucky this year just to even be talking about the playoffs. Based on how many runs they've given up and scored, they should have finished about fourth.

Of course they may win the World Series this year; the playoffs are a total crapshoot. (And hey, I mailed Randy Johnson ten bucks in 2001 so he could buy himself a drink as the winning pitcher of the game that eliminated the hated Yankees, so I'm not without sympathy for your team.)

I'd be delighted to wager $100 that the Diamondbacks don't repeat as division winners next year. If you believe so strongly that it was "going to happen soon," I'd think you'd be happy to grab that action.
 
#11
#11
I doubt an NL team will win the World series this year.

I would take that bet, because I think Arizona will be better next year, but at 17, there is no guarantee that I won't be broke.
 
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