Right now I'd say the order will be as follows assuming that each team wins out:
1. Ohio St. if they lose to Mich they will stay #2 in the BCS unless they get blown out by the Wolverines.
2. Florida
3. USC
4. Notre Dame
5. Arky
For Arky to get there IMO you need to beat LSU and UF, hope for a BIG Ohio St. victory over Mich., hope Cal beats USC, and hope USC beats ND.
The loser of USC/Notre Dame will be a two-loss team and out of the hunt. So really, four teams. Unless all these teams manage to lose more games, then I doubt the national title rematch will occur.
I generally agree with your list, though. This is how I think it will shake out, assuming all these teams continue to go unbeaten and Florida wins the SEC...
1. Ohio State/Michigan
2. Florida
3. USC/Notre Dame
4. Rutgers
or if Arkansas runs the table an wins the SEC...
1. Ohio State/Michigan
2. USC/Notre Dame
3. Rutgers
4. Arkansas
First off, I believe that the Rutgers hype machine has already started, and that their running the table will put them smack in the middle of national title talk, regardless of how crappy their schedule has been. Secondly, the better Arkansas looks, the better USC looks. To whoever worried about the west coast contingent of voters, I wouldn't worry about it. I'm pretty sure a decent majority of votes are coming from the eastern US. Regional bias will probably prove irrelevant, however, as anybody with the responsibility of a vote will at least look at the schedule, and remember the smack-down USC layed on Arkansas in Fayetville earlier this year. That, combined with a win over Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA at the end of the year stamps a ticket to Arizona.
On the opposite side of that coin, Notre Dame, being well... Notre Dame, will get a national title shot if they run the table and beat USC in Los Angeles.
Now that's all assuming Arkansas runs it and wins the SEC...
IMO Florida controls its own destiny with a national title bid. They run the table and win the SEC, they will jump the Ohio State/Michigan loser.