Theres still hope the Vols can win it all
Mark Wiedmer Commentary
Come Saturday night in Auburn, Ala, the Associated Presss former No. 2 college football team (Auburn) will attempt to ruin the season of the polls new No. 2 Florida. And to think some of us wondered whether the Southeastern Conference might be slipping a bit nationally.
We learned a lot about our beloved SEC over the weekend.
We learned that Arkansas is probably better than we thought after winning 27-10 at Auburn. We learned that Auburns lack of size can prove fatal when its speed and quickness dont show up properly motivated.
We learned that Tennessee has been underrated and Georgia overrated. We learned again that LSU is its own worst enemy, a fantastically talented team unfortunately short on fundamentals.
We also learned that Kentucky and Vanderbilt are still Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and thus programs still not yet ready to threaten anyone in the top half of the league anytime soon.
But mostly we learned that Florida is apparently the leagues top team pending the outcome of its game against Auburn, of course.
Much as they did in last months one-point victory at Tennessee, the Gators are not so much dominant as disciplined. Urban Meyers second Florida team makes the most of its opportunities, plays rough and tough defense and does little to beat itself.
Get past Auburn and it is inconceivable the Gators could lose but one more league game (Georgia) and twice overall (at Florida State). Get past Auburn and the SEC East is almost guaranteed the Gators.
But that doesnt mean all is lost for Tennessees Big Orange Nation. In fact, the Vols could arguably finish ahead of Florida in the BCS rankings if Florida stumbles once and UT runs the table.
Check the rest of the AP Top 25 today and youll see the Vols are ranked eighth, Auburn 11 th, LSU 14 th, Georgia 16th and Arkansas 17 th. That means the SEC owns more than a third of the first 17. The Big Ten has three of the first 17, including No. 1 Ohio State and No. 4 Michigan. The Pac 10 has Southern Cal third and California 10 th. The Big East has West Virginia fifth and Louisville seventh. The Atlantic Coast Conference has Clemson 12th and Georgia Tech 13 th.
But it is Cal at No. 10 that should most excite Volniacs. The Bears crushed Oregon over the weekend, much as they previously gobbled up Arizona State and Minnesota. If they keep this up, they could arrive at Southern Cal on Nov. 18 with their own BCS berth on the line, which would make UTs 35-18 season-opening win all the more impressive.
In fact, each fresh Florida and Cal victory hugely helps the Vols in the BCS rankings.
The question is, could it help them enough to put them in line for the national championship game?
Consider the following scenario : Tennessee wins out, which means the Vols win at Arkansas and South Carolina, and hold off Alabama at home following this weeks open date.
Given the early loss to Florida, its doubtful the Vols could reach the SEC title game, but an 11-1 record with a lone loss to the Gators would certainly push them near the top of the standings.
Lets say Cal wins out, knocking off Southern Cal. Lets further say that Notre Dame upsets the Trojans after that. Cals lone loss would be to Tennessee, but its big win over USC would lose luster.
Because they play each other, either Ohio State or Michigan will end the year with at least one defeat. Same holds true for West Virginia and Louisville. Texas could win out but playing in the Big 12 isnt going to help their computer points.
Lastly, lets say Florida runs the table in the regular season, but falls to two-loss Auburn in the SEC title game. Tennessees lone loss would be to a one-loss team. Floridas loss would be to a two-loss team, though one it had beaten in the regular season.
Can all of this happen? And even if it can, wont that still leave the Ohio State-Michigan winner playing the Louisville-West Virginia winner in the national championship game?
Perhaps. Actually, probably. But for those who think Tennessee cant get there, who would have thought they could come from 24-7 down between Georgias hedges to win 51-33, either?
