As Lofton goes, so go the Vols

[lawgator1]

An interesting article on CNN/SI about trends in certain tournament teams. Lofton is listed as the Number 5 player in the country in terms of point differential between wins and losses. He averages X in wins, y in losses. The inference is that if he is not able to score well, then it makes your team more vulnerable for the upset in the tournament.

Not sure I buy into the stat for a whole lot of reasons, not the least of which is that it ignores point production by other players in wins and losses, plus it assumes that the overall points scored by the compared teams are close enough that you can compare individual players between teams (and that is clearly wrong).

But it does raise an interesting issue: Is UT too dependent on the shooting of one player, Lofton? Just trying to stir the pot a little here, but I am curious as to whether your greatest asset can become your biggest liability. Thoughts?


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writ....bkc/index.html

 

[jakez4ut]

i think it may be right and wrong....we can't afford for him to be off all game long, but at the same time, i think most would agree that our bench as well outperformed expectations. esp. j. smith.

Patterson has also had sperts where he has been huge, and asumnu coming off the bench has been productive as well.

And then there's Dane. LG, you guys should know all too well where we'd be with out him..... :biggrin2:

But i think if you look at most teams there's a player or duo of players that make a difference...look at Duke. where would they be, really, w/out Reddick? Gonzaga w/out Morrison? LSU w/out Davis? Not saying they would suck, but maybe not as good as they are with them....i think you can read too much in to stats like that sometimes....

 

[lawgator1]

But i think if you look at most teams there's a player or duo of players that make a difference...look at Duke. where would they be, really, w/out Reddick? Gonzaga w/out Morrison? LSU w/out Davis? Not saying they would suck, but maybe not as good as they are with them....i think you can read too much in to stats like that sometimes....

Very good point. Most championship teams do seem to have 1-2 offensive superstars. The example I can think of where that was not true would be Michigan State and the Fab Five a few years back. Still, as you point out, it does put you at risk in case someone has a poor shooting night or opposing coach figures out a way to better defend the player than others so far have managed.

I imagine that Gonzaga in particular is in that boat. If you can defend Morrison and keep him to 10-15 points, that team is in deep trouble.

Interesting issue.

 

[jakez4ut]

Very good point. Most championship teams do seem to have 1-2 offensive superstars. The example I can think of where that was not true would be Michigan State and the Fab Five a few years back. Still, as you point out, it does put you at risk in case someone has a poor shooting night or opposing coach figures out a way to better defend the player than others so far have managed.

I imagine that Gonzaga in particular is in that boat. If you can defend Morrison and keep him to 10-15 points, that team is in deep trouble.

Interesting issue.

And i think UNC kind of exposed Duke for what it is when Reddick doesn't score 25-30 either....don't get me wrong, they still got players, but for THIS year, none of them have stepped up to be his equal.

I think our biggest issue, as has been well documented in games and on this board, is our lack of size in the middle. If we had a sheldon williams or tyler H. down low, i'd like our chances against anyone....as i'm sure most would, huh?

 

[rwemyss]

CJ Watson is also a very important player... I always thought for the most part, as CJ goes, so does the team. Not in terms of points, but solid play, assist/turnover, etc.

 

[surrealvol]

Lofton is certainly the main man, but others contribute on a regular basis!

 

[govols]

Lofton is certainly the main man, but others contribute on a regular basis!

I agree. Pearl will bring in good recruits each year and we will be fine.

 

[orangetd88]

I don't think we depend on Lofton every night as much as Duke does Reddick every game.

 

[hatvol96]

I don't think we depend on Lofton every night as much as Duke does Reddick every game.

They've got Shelden Williams. We don't.

 

[orangetd88]

We still don't depend on Lofton like they do Reddick. Yes, Lofton is a major part of the offense, but he doesn't have to score 30 every night for us to win.

 

[hatvol96]

We still don't depend on Lofton like they do Reddick. Yes, Lofton is a major part of the offense, but he doesn't have to score 30 every night for us to win.

Duke has an All-American center and two McDonald's All American freshmen. They have lost three games, all to NCAA tournament teams. I'm pretty sure they've won some games this year that Reddick didn't score 30 points in.

 

[OWB]

Duke has an All-American center and two McDonald's All American freshmen. They have lost three games, all to NCAA tournament teams. I'm pretty sure they've won some games this year that Reddick didn't score 30 points in.

Over the last 4 games, Reddick has shot 28.8% from the field. They have lost their last two games. Even shooting close to 29% the last 4 games, he averages 27.8 points a game. They might have won some games where he didn't score 30, but make no mistake, he carries that team.

 

[orangetd88]

Umm, they have Williams and Reddick, and that's pretty much it. Sure, they have some guys who have potential, but Powlus, etc, are not that great.

Reddick averages around 30 a game, so, actually, there have been very few games that they have won without him scoring big numbers.

 

[hatvol96]

Umm, they have Williams and Reddick, and that's pretty much it. Sure, they have some guys who have potential, but Powlus, etc, are not that great.

Reddick averages around 30 a game, so, actually, there have been very few games that they have won without him scoring big numbers.

I saw them beat Memphis, who I think we would all agree is pretty good, on a neutral floor with Reddick not having a great scoring game.

 

[hatvol96]

Over the last 4 games, Reddick has shot 28.8% from the field. They have lost their last two games. Even shooting close to 29% the last 4 games, he averages 27.8 points a game. They might have won some games where he didn't score 30, but make no mistake, he carries that team.

The two losses are to NCAA tournament teams. Florida State has as much physical talent as anyone in that league. They were playing for their tournament lives. UNC played out of their heads. They won't replicate that performance again this year.

 

[jakez4ut]

i think we can all agree that Duke has talent, even without Reddick, and that Sheldon Williams is important to their team as well.

the thing though, as LG originally pointed out, was what % of a teams offense is attributed to one player....and i'd think when you look at Reddick's % in W's vs. L's, there is a difference when he's on.

the bottom line is Duke would be good w/out him, but would they be what they are today for a whole season w/out him? I would tend to think not. you'd have to have a combination of players offensive output to replace his offensive numbers.

which is something we've been able to do when Chris is off. Others have stepped up on our team....i believe that's the point of this thread.

 

[hatvol96]

When and where did they beat Memphis this season?

Madison Square Garden. The night after Thanksgiving. Finals of the Preseason NIT.

 

[hatvol96]

i think we can all agree that Duke has talent, even without Reddick, and that Sheldon Williams is important to their team as well.

the thing though, as LG originally pointed out, was what % of a teams offense is attributed to one player....and i'd think when you look at Reddick's % in W's vs. L's, there is a difference when he's on.

the bottom line is Duke would be good w/out him, but would they be what they are today for a whole season w/out him? I would tend to think not. you'd have to have a combination of players offensive output to replace his offensive numbers.

which is something we've been able to do when Chris is off. Others have stepped up on our team....i believe that's the point of this thread.

Who stepped up in the LSU, Arkansas, and Kentucky games?

 

[jakez4ut]

not enough people that's for sure. the point is we've had production from people when our, uh, "stars" haven't exactly had great games.

But we're not as talented as Duke. And for a team as talented as Duke, you'd think they'd have some guys that could step in when Reddick has had his occaisonal down game.

The UNC game, just beacuase it's the most recent example, no one was ready to be the go to guy when Reddick became cold.

It was almost like the rest of the team was waiting for him to bail them out. He almost did, but after he started out so hot, he really, really cooled off there in the 2nd half, which i think was a huge difference for Duke.

Plus you have to credit Carolina for containing him most of the night. They gameplanned around stopping him. It worked. And it didn't hurt that they had Tyler Hansborough who, for the most part, matched up well against Sheldon Williams when he had to.

 

[rwemyss]

Lofton only had 10 against Lipscomb... Watson scored 18, Wingate 15, and Asumnu 11... Lipscomb is a tourney team btw.

Against Vandy the first time Lofton scored 9, while Wingate had 16, Smith 14, Watson 13, and Bradshaw 10.

 

[jakez4ut]

Lofton only had 10 against Lipscomb... Watson scored 18, Wingate 15, and Asumnu 11... Lipscomb is a tourney team btw.

Against Vandy the first time Lofton scored 9, while Wingate had 16, Smith 14, Watson 13, and Bradshaw 10.

And that's more or less the point....it has happened this year for us....

 

[lawgator1]

My own perception is that you spread it around quite a bit and could get by a lot of teams even if Lofton is not having a great night. But, I do think teams will target him defensively and that the really good teams can probably beat you if they can force you to rely on Wingate, etc. I would say that, despite the fact that you can still win even if Lofton scores 10 points in a game, you are obviously much better when he is lighting it up in part because it takes pressure off the others and they can put it up only when they get the better looks.

 

[hatvol96]

Lofton only had 10 against Lipscomb... Watson scored 18, Wingate 15, and Asumnu 11... Lipscomb is a tourney team btw.

Against Vandy the first time Lofton scored 9, while Wingate had 16, Smith 14, Watson 13, and Bradshaw 10.

Lipscomb is NOT a tournament team. They lost their conference championship game to Belmont.

 

[hatvol96]

And that's more or less the point....it has happened this year for us....

Lipscomb is an indicator of what? Duke would beat Lipscomb to death if Reddick took the night off to play Halo with Adam Morrisson. I would hope Tennessee wouldn't need a huge performance from any one player to beat the Atlantic Sun runnerup.

 

[GVF]

Lipscomb is not a dog either. Very competitive as a NAIA member before moving up, with more than one conference title and NAIA appearance. Belmont is no slacker either. We used to play both in college. LU is only a 3-5k enrollment private school making the leap to D1 mid.