Autumn Angst: Dems fret about Obama

[OrangeEmpire]

Autumn Angst: Dems fret about Obama - David Paul Kuhn and Bill Nichols - Politico.com

Polls showing John McCain tied or even ahead of Barack Obama are stirring angst and second-guessing among some of the Democratic Party’s most experienced operatives, who worry that Obama squandered opportunities over the summer and may still be underestimating his challenges this fall.
“It’s more than an increased anxiety,” said Doug Schoen, who worked as one of Bill Clinton’s lead pollsters during his 1996 reelection and has worked for both Democrats and independents in recent years. “It’s a palpable frustration. Deep-seated unease in the sense that the message has gotten away from them.”
Joe Trippi, a consultant behind Howard Dean’s flash-in-the-pan presidential campaign in 2004 and John Edwards’ race in 2008, said the Obama campaign was slow to recognize how the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate would change the dynamic of the race.
“They were set up to run ‘experience versus change,’ what they had run [against Hillary] Clinton,” Trippi said. “And I think Palin clearly moved that to be change or reform, versus change. They are adjusting to that and that threw them off balance a little bit.”
A major Democratic fundraiser described it a good bit more starkly after digesting the polls of recent days: “I’m so depressed. It’s happening again. It’s a nightmare.” Adding to Democratic restlessness, McCain has largely neutralized some issue advantages that have long favored Democrats.
This week’s USA Today/Gallup poll reported a split on which candidate “can better handle the economy”; 48 percent chose Obama while 45 percent said McCain. In late August, Obama had a 16-point edge on the issue.
Also this week, an ABC News/Washington Post poll reported that when voters are asked “who can bring about needed change to Washington,” McCain still trails Obama by 12 points. But in June, McCain trailed by 32 points.
That shift in the public’s perception of the issues, in Democratic pollster Celinda Lake’s words, “tremendously concerns me.”
Lake joined other Democratic veterans, some speaking not for attribution, in emphasizing a classic liberal woe: that the Democrat let the Republican define him.

“Obama needed to define himself,” Lake said. “I do think that during the Democratic convention we should have done a better job of defining McCain.”
Steve Rosenthal, a veteran field organizer for Democrats and organized labor, said that some entrenched Democratic vulnerabilities never receded this year. And in his view, Palin has reawakened those liberal weaknesses.

“For some white, working-class voters who don’t want to vote for Barack Obama but weren’t sure about McCain, Palin gave them a good reason to take another look and consider supporting McCain,” Rosenthal said.

“On the one hand, it could be a temporary reshuffling of the deck,” he added. “And on the other hand, it underscores the deep-seated problems we have in this race with race, class and culture.

Thoughts?

 

[crazyguy]

It's an interesting question regarding defining the opposition candidate rather than staying on issue. I've heard numerous times over the last few months about how well the democrats do in defining the issue-but that the republicans all hammer home the same message. I wonder if really it's all about naming the opposition and boxing him in...that's seems to be the message of this article. If not that, then it's about the Dems inability to change the issue to meet the new rep. opposition.

 

[volinbham]

It's a long way to the election (even though we've been at this since January or Feb).

I'm guessing momentum changes a minimum of 2 more times - back to Obama, the back to McCain and then who knows.

If I were on the Obama side, I'd be worried about the relatively steady erosion of support from Super Tuesday on. HC won the out primaries from ST but BO had an insurmountable lead. He's been treading water since as has McCain until the Palin pick.

The erosion in the electoral college has been clear too. BO had a 300+ EV lead at one point - it has moved to 273-265 and the toss ups are moving McCain for the time being.

The ground game will be come critically important as will the unease factor or Bradley effect.

 

[MG1968]

David Axelrod might know how to win the Mass. gubernatorial race, but he's not very good at running a national race.

Team Obama's biggest mistake was to immediately start comparing him to Palin, a tactic that is doomed to failure since it's almost a tacit admission that he can't compete with McCain.